TAFREEJ 2.30 Yarmouth at 5/6

British EBF Novice Stakes (Class 4) 6f3y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 8-49 for 16%          (10) 
National average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)                                
RPR: 88                             (10)  
Distance: 6f                        (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Jim Crowley                 (10) 
National Average: 19%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)                                        
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 32%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Poseidon Prince
Alt: Miqdaad

 Group 1 entry

Tafreej is a late foal (20 May) then gelded 8 July. He has made a promising start to his career. On debut at Haydock in a Class 4 Novice over 6f on good to firm ground he was sent off at 11/2 so something was expected of him, he seemed to take a blow when the winner asserted, having made his way into contention, and the gelding suggested he would sharpen up a great deal for the initial experience. By the way that race was won by Sakheer.

Eyecatcher at Newbury

He is out of a 1m4f winner and stoutly bred with a Group 1 Derby entry so we were interested to see where William Haggas would send him next. It was to be Newbury in a 6f Maiden on good ground where he started 13/2 so not fancied to win. He raced in midfield and was going easily but waiting for room over 2f out, he was soon pushed along and outpaced, ridden over 1f out, then running on inside final furlong, nearest at the finish and a real eyecatcher!

Optimum distance at this stage?

That run sets a pretty good standard for his two rivals to aim at, he's certain to progress again so must be hard to beat! He is clearly not short of speed given his Newbury run, but we did think his next run would be over 7f+ but the Yarmouth course has a bit of soft in it for tomorrow. With a big and long home straight, it is a fair course for Jim Crowley to get organised and bring a late challenge as the stamina of Tafreej kicks in, he will hit the line strongly.

Trainer & Jockey Form

The trainer is in good form though currently just short of his best. His course strike rate is below his national average winning 28-138 for 20% (-37.65). Jim Crowley has a national average of 19% but at Yarmouth he shows 10-61 for 16% (+11.90) over the past 5-years. When he rides for this trainer, they produce fabulous figures of 60-190 for 32% and £3,637,977 in prize money.

Contenders

Poseidon Prince has been already gelded and not as well-bred as many for these connections but did show some promise when seventh of 13 in maiden at Nottingham (5f, good, 9/2) on debut 12 days ago, nearest finish. He should improve without winning but just rates the danger. Miqdaad (foaled 9 February) is a Dark Angel colt and a half-brother to 7f/1m winner Nehaall and 7f winner Yojaari. Dam is a 7f winner, half-sister to useful 11f/1½m winner Beraymi. Noteworthy newcomer though he is related to winners over further so expected to need the run.

 Timeform

 TAFREEJ left his debut well behind when third in a good-looking maiden at Newbury 3 weeks ago and on that evidence, he's up to winning a race such as this. Miqdaad is bred to be useful, so he warrants a second look on debut, with Poseidon Prince expected to step forward.

Value

On this occasion we cannot be sure whether perceived value has been secured regarding this race, but for either of the two main rivals to win they need to post a RPR of 90+ to win. We wanted 10/11 initially about the Pacafi, we h ave taken a price shorter than that. With this type of juvenile race, we do not like taking on the likes of Roger Varian and Charlie Appleby, but our wager must be very hard to beat even though the 6f is going to be short of his optimum distance!

Tafreej traded at a low of 5.50 and Betfair SP of 11.43 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field and travelled strongly early on.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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