ASHTANGA 2.20 Nottingham at 11/8

EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5) 1m75y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 1-3 for 33%           (10) 
National average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%             (10)                                
RPR: 88                             (10)  
Distance: 1m                        (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)
Jockey: Andrea Atzeni               (10) 
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 22%             (10)                                        
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 33%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Dubai Crystal
Alt: Shazam

  Ran excellent race on debut

Ashtanga (foaled 10 Feb) is a €40,000 half-sister to two winners including Ninth Titan (French 1m2f-10.5f including AW; RPR 104). She looks a promising sort and was a very good running on third of 9 in Novice at Salisbury over 1m on good to soft ground 13 days ago. She was the only filly in the field and showed greenness after being slowly away, but we liked the way she stuck on well to finish on the heels of the front pair. She was sent off at 14/1 so not expected to run quite so well, she is going to be a lot straighter tomorrow and has a great chance in a race against her own sex. The way she ran on debut suggested a big field would not intimidate her and Andrea Atzeni takes over from Richard Kingscote.

Ground conditions

The ground at Nottingham tomorrow is soft and that does not look to be a problem with the Pacafi. Her debut was on good to soft and she hit the winning post hard over the distance. Her breeding suggests she will run fine on it. The sire Nathaniel performed well on testing ground and the dam is out of Monsun.

Trainer and Jockey Form

Martyn Meade had a national average of 15% before Freddie was given trainer status and he scored 2-19 for 11% at the course. The trainer has 2 runners in the race. Talking of courses there are some venues Andrea Atzeni rides particularly well and Nottingham is one of them. He shows 20-92 for 22% (+19.48) measured against a national average of 16%.

Contenders 

Dubai Crystal boasts a smart pedigree and offered plenty to work on when a well-held second on her 1m Newcastle debut 14 days ago. Likely to improve for a yard enjoying an excellent season with 2yos and could be the main danger.  Shazam is a €140,000 Almanzor filly and an interesting newcomer. She is a half-sister to several winners in France, including useful 9.5f/1¼m winner Shalamba and useful 11f-15f winner Shalakar. She will have to post a RPR of 88+ on debut and that will take some doing!

 Timeform

 ASHTANGA should have more to offer on the back of an encouraging opening run at Salisbury a couple of weeks ago and looks the one to beat. Karl Burke's Newcastle runner-up Dubai Crystal looks the obvious threat unless the betting vibes are strong surrounding Ralph Beckett debutante Shazam.

Value

The 11/8 looks north of perceived value with a good paddock and trip to post for the 2yo filly. The money could come for Shazam and whilst it will be speculative it could be interesting given the form of Ralph Beckett's juveniles. His 2yos on Turf this year have scored 23-116 for 20% (+6.12).

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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