QUANTICO 6.45 Newcastle at 11/8 bpg

Prestwick Care Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m5y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 2-18 for 11%          (10) ← 
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 23%             (10)                                
RPR: 86                             (10)  
Distance: 1m                        (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good/Standard       (10)
Jockey: Paul Mulrennan              (10) 
National Average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 10%             (10) ←                                        
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 29%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Borgi
Alt: Heretic

  Big impression on debut

Quantico created a big impression and looked a promising sort who was well backed and knew what was required to make a winning debut in 7-runner novice event at Chelmsford (1m) on debut in August. It wasn't a strong race that he won but the runner-up (well beaten) won next time, as did the remote third. He won despite being green and given a wide trip. Gelded since, he looks hard to beat with big improvement expected from the son of Make Believe.

Trainer and Jockey Form

Archie Watson is not in the very best form showing 4 second places since his last win. September showed him 6-44 for 14% (-11.00) with no wins for October yet. When he makes the long trip to Newcastle, he has excellent figures and scores 28-124 for 23% (-6.57). and when he combines with jockey Paul Mulrennan, they show even better figures again with 17-58 for 29% (+44.59).

Worth pointing out that main rival Sean Woods horses are also running below their national average, so no advantage given, and it does look like a match!

Contenders

Borgi hasn't been seen (230 days) since finishing a respectable second at Lingfield in February and warrants respect on his return and looks to be the main danger. Heretic was a £25,000 yearling, Galileo Gold gelding. Dam maiden (stayed 8.5f), half-sister to useful winner up to 1m (stayed 1¼m) Rufus King out of useful 1m winner Mosqueras Romance. Wears tongue strap and requiring a market check on debut for clues. Irish Approach was keen over 1m2f in handicap company at Redcar and may prove more competitive now dropped in trip.

 Timeform

QUANTICO was well found in the market and had little fuss getting off the mark on debut at Chelmsford (1m) back in August. Gelded subsequently, he promises to do better again and just about shades the vote over the returning Borgi, who has been absent since losing little caste in defeat behind a Godolphin in-mate back in February. Irish Approach may emerge best of the others.

Value

The 5/4 looks just to be on the right side of perceived value, but we must seek better odds given every bookmaker is offering 5/4. We will probably stake at 8am with best price guaranteed or on the exchange. So far, we have secured a little of 2.72 which is clearly value given our rationale.

Quantico traded at a high of 6.20 and Betfair SP of 2.54 when winning last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field: Borgi traded at a low of 3.05 and Betfair SP of 6.40 when losing last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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