NEWMARKET RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Saturday 29 October 2022)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

The Racing Horse offers our Newmarket Racecourse Template for Saturday 29 October 2022. There is an 8-race card containing 4 Handicaps, 2 Novice Races and 1 Conditions and 1 Listed Race. The going is expected to be soft.

NEWMARKET FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo    61-184	33%   -36.04	7-29     24%   -11.42
3yo    54-138   39%   -16.33	51-148   34%   +15.68
4yo+   17-55    31%   -11.32	44-142   31%   -13.00
Total 132-377   35%   -63.68	102-319  32%    -8.74

TOP 5 TRAINERS NEWMARKET 2021                 +/-   E
C Appleby (29%)    16-67   24%   -10.19       -5%   4
W Haggas (23%)     12-53   23%   +13.75       +0%   2
J & T Gosden (21%) 10-60   17%   -16.43       -4%   5
G Boughey (17%)     6-33   18%    +5.00       +1%   3
A Balding (15%)     6-66    9%    +1.62       -6%   5

TOP 5 TRAINERS NEWMARKET 5 years              +/-   E
C Appleby (29%)    86-285   30%   +39.00      +1%   4
J & T Gosden (21%) 55-306   18%   -61.22      -3%   5
R Varian (20%)     41-253   16%	  -15.49      -4%   2
M Johnston (15%)   35-275   13%	  -32.98      -2%   2
A Balding (15%)    32-245   13%   +32.12      -2%   5  
  
TOP 5 JOCKEYS NEWMARKET 2021                  +/-   R
W Buick (22%)	20-85   24%    -8.94          +2%   0
J Doyle (20%)	9-59	15%    -6.88          -5%   4
F Dettori (23%)	8-34	24%    -0.22          +1%   0
O Murphy (19%)	8-61	13%   -19.66          -6%   0
J Crowley (20%)	7-35	20%    +3.50          +0%   3

TOP JOCKEYS NEWMARKET 5 years                 +/-   R
W Buick (22%)  101-357	 28%   +30.36         +6%   0
O Murphy (19%)	39-238	 16%   +27.70         -3%   0
F Dettori (23%)	30-166	 18%   -40.30         -5%   0
J Crowley (20%)	28-199	 14%   -19.13         -6%   3
J Doyle (20%)	25-230	 11%   -66.76         -9%   4

TOP 5 OWNERS NEWMARKET 5 years                +/-   E
Godolphin (24%)      99-391  25%    +40.53    +1%   5
H Al Maktoum (21%)   22-141  16%     +2.08    -5%   0
Ob Al Maktoum (20%)  19-101  19%    -2.01     -1%   0
Cheveley Park (17%)  13-99   13%    -14.07    -4%   3
Moh Al Maktoum (15%) 12-65   18%    -13.40    +4%   0

Fixtures:
Saturday 29 October 2022 
Friday's results not included

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites on this Newmarket course show 234-696 for 33.62% and a level stake loss of -72.42. Strange that the non-handicap winning favourites score at 35% yet produces a loss of -63.68 yet handicap favourites strike at 32% but only lose -8.74. The strike rate at the course is close to the national average but the non-handicap favourites underperform massively compared to other racecourses!

TRAINERS: Our top trainers are all in action at Newmarket on Saturday and will probably dominate the card. J & T Gosden (21%) and Andrew Balding (15%) both have 5 entries, whilst both William Haggas (23%) and Roger Varian (20%) have 2 entries.

Charlie Appleby (29%) has 4 runners, they include KING OF CONQUEST 3.23, DREAM OF LOVE 3.58, ROYAL FLEET & OTTOMAN FLEET 4.33. The trainer excels on the Newmarket courses, here are his 5-year figures bearing in mind he often doubles up in races thus diluting his strike rate:

Newmarket Rowley: 86-286 for 30% (+38.00)
Newmarket July:   59-197 for 30% (-13.34)
Total:           145-483 for 30% (+24.66)

JOCKEYS: William Buick (22%) has 4 rides at Flemington and cannot wait to see him compete against the best Australians. Will he score a winner? We hope so! James Doyle (20%) is well and truly back; he has won with 4 of his last 7 rides and has 4 rides at the course on Saturday.

Jim Crowley (19%) has 3 interesting rides, but our eyes are drawn to Ryan Moore (18%). He has the most awful figures riding this course given his world-class status, he shows 26-320 for just 8% and a level stake loss of -183.66. He has a chance to improve those with 6 rides on Friday (including our Pacafi) but 8 on the Saturday. He looks the jockey to follow along with James Doyle and Jim Crowley.

OWNERS: Godolphin (24%) have 5 runners on Saturday on what is a huge day for them globally. Apart from the 4 Appleby runners Saeed bin Suroor runs GHALY 3.23.

1.03
LUDMILLA (J & T Gosden) 53 of Kingman's progeny have won on debut, Ryan Moore rides
MARMARA SEA (J Chapple-Hyam) trainer shows profit of £183.50 with debutants, Pat Cosgrave rides
SAFETY CATCH (W Haggas) trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, Adam Farragher (3) rides

1.38
MISS LIGHTFANDANGO (C Hills) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, trainer shows profit of £16.99 when one runner at a meeting, Jim Crowley rides
MEDICI CHAPEL (J & T Gosden) trainer shows profit of £61.08 with debutants and 55 of Iffraaj's progeny have on debut, Martin Harley rides
GLOWING SKY (J & T Gosden) trainer shows profit of £61.08 with debutants, Rob Havlin rides

2.13
QUEEN'S EYOT (E Dunlop) winner in the last 7 days, hat-trick bid, Rhys Clutterbuck rides
IN THESE SHOES (C & M Johnston) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, did too much out in front when failing to meet expectations in strong-looking nursery over C&D last time, these calmer waters. 
Ryan Moore rides

2.48
DAWN VEGA (A King) stable information, Rossa Ryan rides
SIR LAURENCE GRAFF (J & T Gosden) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 21% running horses 7f up to 10f, and now 24% in late season, Ryan Moore rides
THERE'S THE DOOR (P Evans) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, Pat Cosgrave rides

3.23
KING OF CONQUEST (C Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, trainer national average 29%, James Doyle rides and 39% on favourites
GHALY (Saeed bin Suroor) trainer shows profit of £15.17 with horse running after a break,
LAWFUL COMMAND (B Meehan) trainer shows profit of £88.22 with horses running after a break 

3.58
DREAM OF LOVE (C Appleby) trainer national average 29%, won 2 of the last 10 runnings, James Doyle rides and 39% on favourites
QUEEN FLEUR (J & T Gosden) trainer 21% with horses running 7f up to 10f, Rob Havlin rides
ROSE PRICK (E Walker) beaten favourite last time out, Saffie Osborne rides

4.33
OTTOMAN FLEET (C Appleby) trainer national average 29%, Ryan Moore rides
ROYAL FLEET (C Appleby) trainer national average 29%, James Doyle rides
ALGIERS (S & E Crisford) trainer shows profit of £46.66 when one runner at a meeting, Andrea Atzeni rides

5.08
HODLER (J Boyle) beaten favourite last time out, Ryan Sexton rides
POCKET THE PROFIT (G Boughey) if he does not miss the kick place chance or better, conditions perfect for him, Ryan Moore rides
DANCING TO WIN (J Chapple-Hyam) proved better than ever on just her second start for new yard, conditions to suit, David Egan rides
RIOT (D O'Meara) career low mark, dangerous, Danny Tudhope rides

 Action takes place on the Rowley Mile in April and May before the action switches to the July course in midsummer before returning to the Rowley Mile for the autumn. The Cesarewitch course is two and a half miles in extent, and despite the run-in of ten furlongs, in big fields those drawn low are at a disadvantage. A wide, galloping track with an uphill finish that is ideal for the big, long-striding horse, except for the descent into the Dip where those types can become unbalanced. Ability to see out the trip thoroughly is essential, and those that commit for home too early can be caught out by the uphill run to the line - Timeform

With the longest straight in Britain and just one turn to negotiate in distance races, this is a lovely course to ride. Surprisingly, though, there are one or two ridges, even before the run down into the Dip, and you need to ride them smoothly. The other thing a jockey has to remember is that it’s a long way up that finishing hill - you’ll see plenty caught in the closing stages. Because of the chalk base, it can ride very lively, and the wind direction is vital. Getting cover is so, so important when it’s in your face - Jason Weaver

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