I SPY A DIVA 1.50 Taunton at 4/9

 Cornish Rock Gin Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m3f1y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 3-7 for 43%           (10) 
National average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 25%             (10)                              
OR & RPR: 113 & 128                 (10)  
Distance: 2m3f+                     (10)                         
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: David Bass                  (10) 
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 26%             (10)                                       
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 19%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Ooh Betty
Alt: Urban Soldier

 Visually impressive at Ludlow

Bumper winner over 2m on good ground and then made the most of a good opportunity to get off the mark over hurdles at Ludlow 21 days ago, as the 4/6 favourite in a Class 4 novice over 2m5f on good to firm ground. She had wind surgery before the win, and this has clearly helped her enormously! The mare looks big and strong and the 7lb penalty should not stop her with conditions to suit.

Trainer Form

Kim Bailey has his horses in fine form with 3 of the last 7 winning. He has a national average of 17% and his figures at the course show 5-20 for 25% (+4.88) over the past 5 years. His combination with David Bass shows 152-780 for 19% so all boxes ticked.

Contender

We would not normally back against a Paul Nicholls runner (7 winners from his last 11 runners) at Taunton, but his runner Urban Soldier was tailed off in his only run and that was in a bumper at this course! He is obviously better than that but makes a reappearance after 252 days and it would shock us if that one won! The danger, if there is one, might be Ooh Betty.

 Timeform

  I SPY A DIVA shouldn't need to improve to follow up from her recent Ludlow success and will take the beating here. Ooh Betty is open to improvement after a reasonably promising run at Stratford and is preferred to Urban Soldier for second.

Value

The 4/9 or 1/2 is surely north of perceived value.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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