ETERNAL HOPE 8.10 Chelmsford at 11/10

Galleywood Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 4) 1m2f

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 5-18 for 28%          (10)
National average: 29%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 24%             (10)                              
RPR 95                              (10)  
Distance: 1m2f                      (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)
Jockey: Harry Davies (3)            (10) 
National Average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 19%             (10)                                      
Trainer/Jockey Combo AW: 25%        (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Mountain Song
Alternative: Glowing Sky

Godolphin Comments

Second foal; dam 7f AW 2yo winner (RPR 79), half-sister to 7f-1m2f Group 1 winner Rio De La Plata and Argentine 7f 2yo Group 1 winner El Expresivo; promising debut at Wolverhampton (9.5f) in February 2023, finishing third behind a pair of smart fillies despite showing inexperience.

Looks the better racehorse

There wasn't much between stablemates Mountain Song (second) and Eternal Hope (third) when they met at Wolverhampton recently and it is the latter who is taken to come out on top this evening. She was hampered at the start, then raced very keenly in last place throwing her head about, and about 8 lengths behind her stablemate who was setting easy fractions out in front!

She then made headway and was hanging left inside over the 1f out, but ran on when in the clear and just missing out for second under a considerate ride by Luke Morris. The daughter of Teofilo was making her debut on that occasion and is therefore open to much more improvement, especially over an extra half-furlong. Visually she looked the better racehorse.

Contenders, draw and weight

Glowing Sky shaped with promise on her only start to date at Newmarket last October and is likely to be thereabouts, but the Godolphin Team are likely to provide the 1-2. Glowing Sky will be having first run for 119 days so entitled to strip fitter for the run even though the Gosden Stable look to be in fine form. Her run was on soft ground but was an eyecatcher but she has to prove herself on the AW surface. The jockey booking of Kevin Stott, whilst a very good jockey, does not shout 'good thing' as this is only his second ride for the team.

The Pacafi was drawn wide on debut, missed the start and had to come from last place to make her effort. This time she has been drawn 2, so inside of her stablemate and that will help her find the rail. Harry Davies claims 3lbs and every little helps. Glowing Sky did not show early pace on debut and will probably take a lead, so it could be Mountain Song leading again.

Timeform

  ETERNAL HOPE wasn't knocked about on her recent introduction at Wolverhampton where she finished hot on the heels of stablemate Mountain Song, who had the benefit of prior experience. It should again be close between them but Eternal Hope arguably possesses the greater potential and is taken to emerge on top this time. Glowing Sky looks the pick of the Gosden-trained duo and is best of the rest.

Perceived Value

The 11/10 looks north of perceived value but that will not stop us trying to secure better odds on the Betfair Exchange through the night. 

Eternal Hope traded at a low of 2.00 and Betfair SP of 9.06 when losing last time, a race in which it raced behind: Mountain Song traded at a low of 1.61 and Betfair SP of 1.98 when losing last time, a race in which it led and travelled strongly early on.

***.888pe

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

 7 Eternal Hope      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  71
 6 Hurricane Bay     1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +1.27  S/R  67%
 5 Kateira           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.74  S/R  60%
 4 Bold Endeavour    1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.17  S/R  50%
 3 Spring Promise    2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.83  S/R  67%
 2 Since Day One     1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.27  S/R  50%
 1 Luccia            1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +0.73  S/R 100%