KEMPTON AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Wednesday 1 March 2023)

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The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for Wednesday 1 March 2023. There is an 8-race card containing 6 Handicaps, a Classified Stakes Race and a Novice Race. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.

Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo   104-267   39%   -50.88   37-114	 32%	-7.32
3yo   113-244	46%   -26.57   129-453	 28%   -90.02
4yo+   40-108	37%   -21.31   230-707	 33%   -34.69
Total 257-619	42%   -98.76   396-1274  31%  -132.04

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON for 2022            +/-   E
C Appleby (29%)  19-56	 34%	-16.53        +5%   0
R Varian (21%)   17-58	 29%	 -0.37        +8%   0
C Johnston (16%) 15-94 	 16%	 -0.59        +1%   1
J Butler (10%)   15-101	 15%	+11.27        +5%   3
W Haggas (23%)   14-47	 30%	 +7.99        +7%   0

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years        +/-   E
A Balding (15%)    64-390   16%	  +78.96      +1%   1 
R Varian (21%)     58-252   23%	  -14.73      +2%   0 
C Appleby (29%)    52-161   32%	  -28.01      +3%   0
R Hannon (11%)	   47-455   10%	 -130.90      -1%   3  
J & T Gosden (21%) 42-168   25%	  -34.68      +4%   0    

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON for 2022             +/-   R 
D Muscutt (13%)   25-156   16%	 -51.31       +3%   0
R Kingscote (14%) 20-132   15%	 +16.26       +1%   1
D Probert (11%)   17-172   10%	 -56.30       -1%   5
J Doyle (19%)     16-50	   32%	  -4.67      +13%   0
W Buick (23%)     15-58    26%   -10.68       +3%   0

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years         +/-   R
D Probert (11%)  84-776  11%    -126.02       -1%   5
H Doyle (15%)    80-553	 14%	-81.28        -1%   0
O Murphy (20%)   71-359	 20%	-47.08        -1%   0
T Marquand (15%) 63-522	 12%   -102.03        -3%   0
J Doyle (19%)    61-277	 22%	 +0.62        +3%   0  

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years          +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	     88-317   28%   -55.36    +2%   0
Hamdan Maktoum (22%) 31-116   27%   +67.81    +5%   0
King Power (14%)     23-130   18%   -31.10    +4%   0
Shadwell Est (24%)   14-50    28%   +10.49    +4%   0
Ahmed Maktoum (25%)  13-56    23%   -11.71    -2%   0

FIXTURES
Wednesday 1 March 2023
Wednesday 8 March 2023
Friday 10 March 2023

(%): NATIONAL AVERAGE SAW: Since a winner E: Entries R: Rides

FAVOURITES: At Kempton we acknowledge then absorb the huge sample size which includes a 11% differential between winning non-handicap favourites and handicap favourites (42% v 31%). Over the past 5 years winning favourites show 653-1893 for 34.50% and a big level stake loss of -230.80 to SP. Best strike rates are in 3yo favourites in non-handicaps scoring at 46%, whilst the worst is 3yo winning favourites in handicaps scoring 28%.

TRAINERS: With the exception of Richard 'Volume for just 11%' Hannon, our top trainers come to the fore at this track and dominate in the non-handicap races. However, on this meeting we do not have much to report so a chance for the 'Championship Trainers' to score winners! WINNER

Of our Premiership Trainers we note S & E Crisford (21%) runs CHOISYA 7.30, Ralph Beckett (17%) saddles ALTERNATIVA 8.00, whilst Clive Cox (14%) enters MOHI 7.00 & JUST BRING IT 7.30. WINNERS (2)

JOCKEYS: David Probert (11%) rides the AW tracks particularly well and he has 5 rides and we expect him to go close to winning and failing that giving his rides the best chance. His rides include: ASSEMBLED 4.55, TIGER BEETLE 6.00, ONE NIGHT THUNDER 6.30, ATHEBY 7.00 & BLUENOSE BELLE 8.00 WINNER

We are a big fan of Rossa Ryan (14%) and he has some excellent rides tomorrow and must surely ride a winner, they include SAPPHIRE'S MOON 4.55, EASTERN STAR 5.30, STATELY HOME 6.00, PAPA STOUR 7.00, JUST BRING IT 7.30 & ALTERNATIVA 8.00 WINNERS (3)

OWNERS: None of the top owners at the track have a runner for Wednesday.

BY THE WAY: Not sure how helpful our Composite board is today. We do have some travellers at the course that look interesting, they include RAY OF COLOURS (C Johnston) 246 miles, MY SONG FOR YOU (R Fahey) 224 miles, READY TO SHINE (J Camacho) 223 miles, RING OF GOLD 7.00 & CHICAGO GAL 8.00 (M & D Easterby) 222 miles and INFINITVE 8.00 & ELISHEVA 8.30 (D O'Meara) 213 miles. Stop at a winner? WINNER

At the last meeting our PERTINENCE BOARD found every winner!

PERTINENCE

4.55
DAPHNE MAY (G Moore) beaten favourite last time out, weighted to win 67 > 54, Rhys Clutterbuck rides
WON LOVE (M Loughnane) beaten favourite last time out, Cam Hardie rides
ASSEMBLED (M Rimell) weighted to win 61 > 55, David Probert rides

5.30
THINK TRIGGER (G Moore) cause for optimism over this more suitable trip, Rhys Clutterbuck rides
SEATTLE KING (P McEntee) visor back on down in class, Kevin Stott rides
DEW YOU BELIEVE (M Appleby) good second of 7 in handicap (14/1) at Wolverhampton (9.5f) 18 days ago, Theodore Ladd rides

6.00
SENSE OF WORTH (L Carter) beaten favourite last time out, Joey Haynes rides
STATELY HOME (S Lycett) drops from Class 3 to Class 5, Rossa Ryan rides WINNER
ROSCIOLI (A Balding) weighted to win 82 > 68, Joshua Bryan rides

EXACTA: £33.10 CSF: £26.77 Tricast: £134.41 Trifecta: £167.60

6.30
ONE NIGHT THUNDER (R Hannon) 75,000 gns foal, 300,000 gns yearling, Night of Thunder colt. Dam 6f winner (including at 2 yrs). David Probert rides WINNER
MY SONG FOR YOU (R Fahey) Promising fourth of 9 in maiden (25/1) at Newcastle (6f) on debut 34 days ago, slowly away. Certain to progress, Cam Hardie rides
CLOUDY BREEZE (G Moore) drops from Class 2 to Class 5, Jason Watson rides

7.00
RING OF GOLD (M & D Easterby) beaten favourite last time out, Jim Crowley rides and 32% when one ride at meeting
MOHI (C Cox) weighted to win 85 > 81, Neil Callan rides
FOLLOW YOUR HEART (D Loughnane) C&D winner, better than ever this year with back-to-back wins. Luke Morris rides WINNER

EXACTA: £82.10 CSF: £86.94 Tricast: £247.15 Trifecta: £328.70

7.30
CHOISYA (S & E Crisford) beaten favourite last time out, trainer +£46.09 when one runner at meeting, 28% with handicap debutants, and 20% with horses 7f up to 10f, Ross Coakley rides
JUST BRING IT (C Cox) much improved third of 10 on nursery debut at Wolverhampton (8.6f), clear of rest, form worked out well, polytrack debut. Rossa Ryan rides WINNER

EXACTA: £2.50 CSF: £2.46

8.00
BLUENOSE BELLE (R Phillips) beaten favourite last time out, David Probert rides
ALTERNATIVA (R Beckett) Lightly-raced maiden, respectable third on handicap debut (8/1) at Wolverhampton (9.5f) 33 days ago and now up  in trip. Rossa Ryan rides WINNER
INFINITIVE (D O'Meara) beaten favourite last time out, formerly with M Stoute and makes Polytrack debut, Jason Watson rides

8.30
PADDY K (J Gallagher) trainer +£103.56 when one runner at meeting, Neil Callan rides
MAY REMAIN (I Furtado) Winner of 6 races from 5f to 6f with 3 wins on polytrack, last win 2 years ago but third of 14 beaten 4l at 11/1 last time out at Southwell over 6f last month. Tumbled down the grades and Elle May-Croot (7) rides

The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics - Jason Weaver
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