WILLMOUNT 5.00 Doncaster at 2/5

Virgin Bet Open National Hunt Flat Race 

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 4-19 for 21%          (10)
National average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 20%             (10)                              
RPR 115                             (10)  
Distance: 2m                        (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Good, good to soft  (10)
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies          (10) 
National Average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%             (10)                                      
Trainer/Jockey Combo AW: 19%        (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Broomhill Road

Expensive winning pointer

Willmount was an expensive £340,000 winning pointer who followed suit in good style in a course and distance bumper 53 days ago. He is expected to maintain his unbeaten record tomorrow. Trainer Neil Mulholland is eyeing the spring festivals for his exciting bumper.

The style and manner of his easy 13 length win looked exceptional and he returns to the course and distance in the same Class 5 carrying 11st 9lbs instead of 11st 8lbs. Jamie Moore was motionless aboard the Ollie Harris-owned 5yo during the closing stages, hitting the line hard backing up his 3m point-to-point win. Looking at his gait the better ground is likely to suit more than the soft ground last time out!

A very nice horse - Neil Mulholland

After the race trainer Neil Mulholland told us: "He’s a very nice horse, whatever he did today he’ll improve from it. He’s only a baby but he cost a lot of money so I was a little bit harder on him, trying to get him ready first time out. That took the edge off him, so whatever he did today he will improve from. He’s a long-term prospect, he won’t be going novice hurdling this year. The owner is very relaxed, he’ll just go in bumpers because he’s just a baby. We’d go for one of the good bumpers – I’ll have to talk to the owners, but definitely. Why not?" He has since said he would be looking at the likes of Cheltenham and Aintree and places like that.

Given the short time factor before the Festivals, our view is if he strolls to victory tomorrow and canters around having an easy time this might happen, otherwise they may wait with him.

Ground conditions

By the way the ground was considered good to soft last time, but it looked very soft watching the race a number of times. Jamie Moore was continually trying to find decent ground throughout the ride

Trainer & Jockey Form

Trainer Neil Mulholland has good numbers at Doncaster showing 10-46 for 22% and a level stake profit to SP of +12.85. His current form looks good with 4-19 for 21%. Sam Twiston-Davies replaces Jamie Moore and understandable as their combination show 122-650 for 19% and £1,261,434 in prize money and in stark contrast to Alexander Thorne and Alan King who show 4-73 for just 5% and £83,704 in prizemoney.

Contender

Broomhill Road was a €32,000 3yo Shirocco gelding. Dam (h107) and maiden hurdler who stayed 21f and a half-sister to a smart bumper winner/smart hurdler (2m winner) Montbazon. Trained by Alan King he looks the only danger though will have to be particular smart to lower the colours of the Pacafi.

Timeform

  WILLMOUNT has won both starts to date, the first of which came between the flags, and he's fancied to land the hat-trick over the same C&D over which he made a winning Rules debut. Broomhill Road looks appealing on paper and is likely to emerge as the main danger.

Perceived Value

The 2/5 looks well north of perceived value, but that will not stop us trying to secure better odds on the Betfair Exchange through the night. It is likely the Alan King horse will attract some support and a small drift possible about the Pacafi before tightening up again before post-time.

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How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

   1 Willmount         1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.40  S/R 100%

 7 Eternal Hope      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  71%
 6 Hurricane Bay     1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +1.27  S/R  67%
 5 Kateira           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.74  S/R  60%
 4 Bold Endeavour    1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.17  S/R  50%
 3 Spring Promise    2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.83  S/R  67%
 2 Since Day One     1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.27  S/R  50%
 1 Luccia            1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +0.73  S/R 100%