GO WEST 5.00 Wincanton at 11/10

Salisbury Hospice Open Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Class 5) 1m7f50y 

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 3-5 for 60%           (10)
National Average: 24%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 28%             (10)                             
RPR 113                             (10)  
Distance: 2m+                       (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Good, good to soft  (10)
Jockey: Harry Cobden                (10) 
National Average: 23%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 31%             (10)                                      
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 26%           (10)          
Total:                             (100)

Danger: Pic Roc
Alternative: Bentley's Return

Should land similar contest - Paul Nicholls

 Paul Nicholls has recently told us: "Go West finished runner-up in his second bumper at Doncaster on 28 January, when beaten by the impressive Dino Bellagio. Go West travelled well through the race and should be able to land a similar contest on a stiff track before the end of the season. He should appreciate 2m4f over hurdles next season." This looks like that day!  

Interesting to hear Oddschecker comments: "He was headed over 2f out at Doncaster (2m1f) last time out and a drop in trip may just help as he bids to go one place better." We think that was a fitness issue and not the trip.

Clearly stays and will hit the line hard

Go West has proven he stays a trip with his point-to-point second place and has since finished second twice since transferring to Paul Nicholls. On both occasions he was made favourite to win at odds of 2/1 and 7/4 at Chepstow and Doncaster. He has had a break between runs suggesting a hiccup but since his second at Doncaster we received the words of Paul Nicholls above. He looks ready to strike.

Trainer and Jockey form

The trainer and jockey combination is particularly strong and even more so at Wincanton. Nicholls has a national average of 24% whilst jockey Harry Cobden has one of 23%. When they combine over the past 5 years they score 414-1619 for a big 26% and prize money of £8,061,591. The trainer Nicholls scores big and higher than his national average at Wincanton showing 77-280 for 28% (-39.44) whilst jockey Cobden beats that with 59-192 for 31% and a level stake profit to SP of +20.35. These are powerful figures!

Timeform

 GO WEST looks the one to beat judged on his runner-up efforts at Chepstow and Doncaster. Pic Roc's debut form at Uttoxeter has worked out well so he is feared, while Court In The Act and Dreadpoetssociety are a couple of newcomers to note.

Perceived Value

After taking a little 5/4 with Bet365 they cut the price to 11/10 but that price still looks perceived value. Go West is likely to start closer to 10/11 if he is primed as we think he is! Nicholls is under a little pressure to deliver a little more to the Owner Group Shareholders who have spent a lot of money for average returns. We sense he should have done better with the stock.

Go West traded at a low of 2.00 and Betfair SP of 2.75 when losing last time, a race in which it led.

***pe

How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

 5 Go West          2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.12  S/R  60%
 4 Defence Treaty   2.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.98  S/R  50%
 3 Star Angel       1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +0.02  S/R  67%
 2 Glory Bridge     2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.60  S/R  50%
 1 Willmount        1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.40  S/R 100%

 7 Eternal Hope      2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +2.37  S/R  71%
 6 Hurricane Bay     1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +1.27  S/R  67%
 5 Kateira           1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.74  S/R  60%
 4 Bold Endeavour    1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.17  S/R  50%
 3 Spring Promise    2.10  WIN   1.00  +1.10  +0.83  S/R  67%
 2 Since Day One     1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.27  S/R  50%
 1 Luccia            1.73  WIN   1.00  +0.73  +0.73  S/R 100%