bet365 Esher Cup Handicap (Class 2) 1m
Trainer Form: 7-25 for 28% (10)
National Average: 29% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 29% (10)
OR & RPR: 100 & 107 (10)
Distance: 1m (10)
Optimum Ground: Uncertain (10)?
Jockey: William Buick (10)
National Average: 23% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 24% (10)
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 32% (10)
Total: (100)
Godolphin Comments
Brother to French 1m3f winner Swift Spirit (RPR 76); dam 6f-1m winner (inc 2yo AW/dirt/turf Listed; won in eyecatching style over 7f at Newmarket in August 2022 despite showing signs of greenness; slightly disappointing 12 days later in Group 3 (behind subsequent Dewhurst winner Chaldean) at York but bounced back to form in a 1m novice stakes at Sandown in September; made it three wins from four starts at Pontefract Listed race (1m) in October.
Course and distance winner on soft ground
Local Dynasty is 3yo Dubawi colt who took his record to 3 wins from 4 starts after landing a Listed event at Pontefract in October. The elephant in the room is the expected ground conditions - it is going to be heavy and it could be cloggy! The most critical information is the colt winning over course and distance at Sandown (Class 4 Novice) on soft ground, this win was duly upgraded from the bare result! In that race, he took a keen hold burning up fuel when in midfield before racing towards the rear 6f out. He was then switched 3f out and pushed along, but made headway from 2f out to lead 1f out, he then scooted clear readily winning by 3½l.
Dante entry
Furthermore, the win at Sandown did not leave a mark because he raced within a month then winning that Listed event a Pontefract on good to soft ground. This is important, he now has a Dante Group 2 entry over 1m2½f on Thursday 18 May and his trainer must believe he has the constitution to win this and race again in 3 weeks time on different ground. By the way, it is worth remembering the colt got loose on his debut at Newmarket in a very hot maiden, yet still won comfortably suggesting even then there was plenty under the bonnet.
It goes without saying...
Given our rationale we cannot explain the easy-to-back price, though we readily accept this race is on heavy ground. In the past we have seen juveniles bottomed out after running at Sandown on heavy ground, but we are talking about a certain trainer called Charlie Appleby. He will have this covered and we doubt his charge will come to the race undercooked. It goes without saying, if Local Dynasty is to run in the Dante he would have to win this Class 2 Handicap first!
In good order, plenty of upsides - Charlie Appleby
There is absolutely no doubt we have a Group horse contesting a Handicap Class 2! Charlie Appleby told us yesterday: “Local Dynasty goes into this in great order. He won well at the course last season and handles the ground, so has plenty of upsides. He looks a worthy favourite and the one they have to beat.”
Trainer and Jockey Form
The trainer has a national average of 29%, is currently in good form and shows 22-75 for 29% (-4.78) at the course. Within those figures there are 15-second places and 13-third places meaning 50-75 for 67% finish in the first three places. William Buick (23%) is riding superbly and he rides. At the course he scores 31-128 for 24% and a level stake profit of +£12.80. The combination of trainer and jockey show a massive 235-724 for a huge 32% (-16.16). Within those figures there are 142-second places and 98-third places showing 475-724 in the first three for 66% and £9,443,152 in prize money. Phenomenal stuff!
Timeform
It's hard to se Despite the small field, this looks likely to be an informative 3-y-o contest for the season ahead and LOCAL DYNASTY is fancied to make a winning start to life in handicaps and take his record to 4-5 on reappearance. Legend of Leros progressed again after 6 months off when third at Kempton earlier this month so he may emerge as the main danger, ahead of the returning Saxon King.
Value
The 11/8 looks a very good price, assuming the Pacafi deals with the heavy ground as well as he did with soft ground at the same course. Ground apart, if the race was tactical we have William Buick in the saddle.
How to PROFIT from the PACAFI
18 Adayar 1.67 1.00
17 Local Dynasty 2.37 1.00
16 Epictetus 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +1.83 S/R 56%
15 Tenebrism 1.62 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.43 S/R 53%
14 Chaldean 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.43 S/R 57%
13 Gabriel's Getaway 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +3.43 S/R 62%
12 Lets Go Champ R4 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.66 +2.60 S/R 58%
11 Dubai Dawn 1.33 WIN 1.00 +0.33 +1.94 S/R 55%
10 Shishkin 3.00 WIN 1.00 +2.00 +1.61 S/R 50%
9 Red Riding Hoood 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 -0.39 S/R 44%
8 Slipofthepen 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 -0.83 S/R 38%
7 Take No Chances 1.83 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.50 S/R 29%
6 Allegorie De Vassy 1.44 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.50 S/R 33%
5 Berkshire Shadow 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +0.50 S/R 40%
4 I Giorni (S) 3.00 LOSE 1.50 -1.50 -1.00 S/R 25%
3 Liberalist 3.50 WIN 1.00 +2.50 +0.50 S/R 33%
2 Sea Flawless 1.67 LOSE 1.00 +1.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
1 Chantico 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
APRIL: 16 WIN: 9 LOSE: 7 S/R: 56% PROFIT: +1.43
(4212123111111U21) FINISHED First or Second (81.25%)
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14 Chance The Robin 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +1.94 S/R 64%
13 Carrerea 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 62%
12 Englebert 2.20 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.37 S/R 67%
11 Ed Keeper 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +3.37 S/R 73%
10 The Same 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +2.37 S/R 70%
9 March Wind 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 67%
8 Gail Du Mesnil 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 75%
7 Con'tution Hill 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +1.27 S/R 71%
6 Coniston George 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.71 +0.83 S/R 67% R4
5 Go West 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.12 S/R 60%
4 Defence Treaty 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.98 S/R 50%
3 Star Angel 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 +0.02 S/R 67%
2 Glory Bridge 2.10 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.60 S/R 50%
1 Willmount 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +0.40 S/R 100%
MARCH: 14 WIN: 9 LOSE: 5 S/R: 64% PROFIT: +1.94
(141L1111211831) FINISHED First or Second (71.43%)
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7 Eternal Hope 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 71%
6 Hurricane Bay 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +1.27 S/R 67%
5 Kateira 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.74 S/R 60%
4 Bold Endeavour 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.17 S/R 50%
3 Spring Promise 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.83 S/R 67%
2 Since Day One 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luccia 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 +0.73 S/R 100%
FEBRUARY: 7 WIN: 5 LOSE: 2 S/R: 71% PROFIT: +2.37
(1212111) FINISHED First or Second (100%)
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