Bruce Stevenson Insurance Brokers Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 2m4f189y
Trainer Form: 2-2 for 100% (10)
National Average: 18% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 19% (10)
OR & RPR: 119 & 125 (10)
Distance: 2m2f to 2m4f (10)
Optimum Ground: Good to soft (10)
Jockey: Brian Hughes (10)
National Average: 19% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 17% (10)
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 24% (10)
Total: (100)
Unbeaten for McCain
Ballyporeen is now 2-2 for new trainer Donald McCain. The 6yo Fame And Glory gelding was 0-5 for previous trainer Rebecca Menzies who ironically now provides the only real danger against the Pacafi in Harper Valley. He has clearly thrived since his stable switch and immediate improvement for new trainer Donald McCain came after easily winning a Musselburgh Novice handicap and then a Novice here. He does carry a double penalty, but is hard to ignore in his bid for a three-timer. He has tried this trip before, so has little to fear from the additional yardage as he bids to maintain his unbeaten status under McCain.
Trainer form
McCain has a national average of 18% and now won with his last 2 runners. At Kelso he shows 16-85 for 19% (-19.74) whilst his combination with jockey Brian Hughes scores 277-1159 for a big 24% (-41.77) and £2½m+ in prize money. Over the past 14 days the jockey scores 8-24 for 33%, has a national average of 19% and records 38-218 for 17% at Kelso over the past 5-years.
Contenders
Harper Valley (trained by Rebecca Menzies), who is unexposed over hurdles, and newcomer Why Not Dream are the pick of the rest. Worth noting, this will only be Harper Valley's third race under rules and his two previous runs were at 25/1 & 28/1 in a Class 4 Maiden and a Class 4 Novice, so whilst he will improve for the step up in distance he will need to. Sean Quinlan replaces Nathan Moscrop. Of course, Rebecca Menzies will know how good the favourite is having trained him, so should the real money come for her charge it might be a concern - we doubt that happening.
In situations like this we always wonder how a trainer feels when he or she cannot get a winner out of one of their horses, they go elsewhere and win immediately. Today Menzies will witness this situation close up. Do they take these things personally?
Timeform
BALLYPOREEN has taken his form up a level since joining Donald McCain and still looks hard to beat despite conceding upwards of 12 lb all round. Harper Valley has gone with some promise on his two starts over hurdles and appeals as the one to chase him home ahead of Rose Dobbin's newcomer Why Not Dream.
Value
The 4/7 looks north of perceived value, we expect him to start at 1/2 or even 4/9.
8 Ballyporeen 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +0.41 S/R 63%
7 Coppice 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 -0.16 S/R 57%
6 Adayar R4 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.08 -0.66 S/R 50%
5 Native Trail 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.74 S/R 40%
4 Hey Lyla 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 -0.74 S/R 50%
3 Trueshan 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.27 S/R 33%
2 Spartan Arrow 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luxembourg 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
May: 8 WIN: 5 LOSE: 3 S/R: 63% PROFIT: +0.41
(51412111) FINISHED First or Second (75.00%)
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16 Epictetus 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +1.83 S/R 56%
15 Tenebrism 1.62 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.43 S/R 53%
14 Chaldean 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.43 S/R 57%
13 Gabriel's Getaway 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +3.43 S/R 62%
12 Lets Go Champ R4 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.66 +2.60 S/R 58%
11 Dubai Dawn 1.33 WIN 1.00 +0.33 +1.94 S/R 55%
10 Shishkin 3.00 WIN 1.00 +2.00 +1.61 S/R 50%
9 Red Riding Hoood 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 -0.39 S/R 44%
8 Slipofthepen 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 -0.83 S/R 38%
7 Take No Chances 1.83 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.50 S/R 29%
6 Allegorie De Vassy 1.44 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.50 S/R 33%
5 Berkshire Shadow 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +0.50 S/R 40%
4 I Giorni (S) 3.00 LOSE 1.50 -1.50 -1.00 S/R 25%
3 Liberalist 3.50 WIN 1.00 +2.50 +0.50 S/R 33%
2 Sea Flawless 1.67 LOSE 1.00 +1.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
1 Chantico 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
APRIL: 16 WIN: 9 LOSE: 7 S/R: 56% PROFIT: +1.83
(4212123111111U21) FINISHED First or Second (81.25%)
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14 Chance The Robin 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +1.94 S/R 64%
13 Carrerea 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 62%
12 Englebert 2.20 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.37 S/R 67%
11 Ed Keeper 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +3.37 S/R 73%
10 The Same 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +2.37 S/R 70%
9 March Wind 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 67%
8 Gail Du Mesnil 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 75%
7 Con'tution Hill 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +1.27 S/R 71%
6 Coniston George 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.71 +0.83 S/R 67% R4
5 Go West 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.12 S/R 60%
4 Defence Treaty 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.98 S/R 50%
3 Star Angel 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 +0.02 S/R 67%
2 Glory Bridge 2.10 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.60 S/R 50%
1 Willmount 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +0.40 S/R 100%
MARCH: 14 WIN: 9 LOSE: 5 S/R: 64% PROFIT: +1.94
(141L1111211831) FINISHED First or Second (71.43%)
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7 Eternal Hope 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 71%
6 Hurricane Bay 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +1.27 S/R 67%
5 Kateira 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.74 S/R 60%
4 Bold Endeavour 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.17 S/R 50%
3 Spring Promise 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.83 S/R 67%
2 Since Day One 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luccia 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 +0.73 S/R 100%
FEBRUARY: 7 WIN: 5 LOSE: 2 S/R: 71% PROFIT: +2.37
(1212111) FINISHED First or Second (100%)
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