BDN Construction Open National Hunt Flat Race (Class 5) 2m125y
Trainer Form: 5-31 for 16% (10)
National Average: 21% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21% (10)
RPR: 122 (10)
Distance: 2m+ (10)
Optimum Ground: Good, good to soft (10)
Jockey: Nico de Boinville (10)
National Average: 22% (10)
Course Strike Rate: 22% (10)
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 24% (10)
Total: (100)
A repeat of Chepstow run should be enough
Choccabloc was placed on both NHF starts last season and sets a good form standard here. The 6yo gelding is out of a bumper winner (Chocca Wocca) and stepped forward from his debut when second at Chepstow (clear of remainder) 76 days ago. A repeat of that sort of performance should be enough to go one better.
Trainer & Jockey Form
Nick Henderson shows 10-48 for 21% (-15.59) at Market Rasen, but this is only his sixth runner NHF runner here (5-years).The combination between Henderson and Nico de Boinville shows 271-1131 for 24% in the past 5-years winning £5m in prize money. In NHF races over the same time period they score 43-153 for 28%. The jockey records 8-37 for 22% (-7.08) at the course, he also rides these NHF races particularly well, scoring 50-199 for 25%. This is the trainer's only runner today and the jockey's only ride and this looks like a job of work.
Contenders
Of his rivals Illico De Nuit might be the main danger for the strong Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen team. He was a €32,000 3yo, Gris De Gris gelding. The dam ran twice over hurdles, and was a half-sister to fairly useful hurdler/useful chaser (17f/2¼m winner) Roi de Treve and fairly useful chaser (2¼m-23f winner) Net Lady. The stable are 22% in bumpers (Henderson is 24%). The market will tell us more.
Timeform
CHOCCABLOC was clear of the rest when runner-up at Chepstow last time and, if in the same form, he should be capable of opening his account at the third attempt. Mistral Blue looks the main danger on form and Illico de Nuit is the most interesting newcomer.
Value
The 4/5 looks perceived value and we expect him to start shorter come post-time, unless there is serious money for the Olly Murphy runner as opposed to each-way money.
Choccabloc traded at a low of 1.50 and Betfair SP of 12.36 when losing last time, a race in which it raced prominently and travelled strongly early on.
9 Choccabloc 1.80 WIN 1.00 +0.80 +1.21 S/R 67%
8 Ballyporeen 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +0.41 S/R 63%
7 Coppice 1.50 WIN 1.00 +0.50 -0.16 S/R 57%
6 Adayar R4 2.20 WIN 1.00 +1.08 -0.66 S/R 50%
5 Native Trail 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.74 S/R 40%
4 Hey Lyla 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 -0.74 S/R 50%
3 Trueshan 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.27 S/R 33%
2 Spartan Arrow 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luxembourg 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
May: 9 WIN: 6 LOSE: 3 S/R: 67% PROFIT: +1.21
(514121111) FINISHED First or Second (77.78%)
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16 Epictetus 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +1.83 S/R 56%
15 Tenebrism 1.62 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.43 S/R 53%
14 Chaldean 2.25 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.43 S/R 57%
13 Gabriel's Getaway 1.83 WIN 1.00 +0.83 +3.43 S/R 62%
12 Lets Go Champ R4 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.66 +2.60 S/R 58%
11 Dubai Dawn 1.33 WIN 1.00 +0.33 +1.94 S/R 55%
10 Shishkin 3.00 WIN 1.00 +2.00 +1.61 S/R 50%
9 Red Riding Hoood 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 -0.39 S/R 44%
8 Slipofthepen 1.67 WIN 1.00 +0.67 -0.83 S/R 38%
7 Take No Chances 1.83 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.50 S/R 29%
6 Allegorie De Vassy 1.44 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.50 S/R 33%
5 Berkshire Shadow 2.50 WIN 1.00 +1.50 +0.50 S/R 40%
4 I Giorni (S) 3.00 LOSE 1.50 -1.50 -1.00 S/R 25%
3 Liberalist 3.50 WIN 1.00 +2.50 +0.50 S/R 33%
2 Sea Flawless 1.67 LOSE 1.00 +1.00 -2.00 S/R 0%
1 Chantico 2.37 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -1.00 S/R 0%
APRIL: 16 WIN: 9 LOSE: 7 S/R: 56% PROFIT: +1.83
(4212123111111U21) FINISHED First or Second (81.25%)
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14 Chance The Robin 1.57 WIN 1.00 +0.57 +1.94 S/R 64%
13 Carrerea 1.91 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 62%
12 Englebert 2.20 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +2.37 S/R 67%
11 Ed Keeper 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +3.37 S/R 73%
10 The Same 2.00 WIN 1.00 +1.00 +2.37 S/R 70%
9 March Wind 2.50 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 +1.37 S/R 67%
8 Gail Du Mesnil 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 75%
7 Con'tution Hill 1.44 WIN 1.00 +0.44 +1.27 S/R 71%
6 Coniston George 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.71 +0.83 S/R 67% R4
5 Go West 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.12 S/R 60%
4 Defence Treaty 2.00 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.98 S/R 50%
3 Star Angel 1.62 WIN 1.00 +0.62 +0.02 S/R 67%
2 Glory Bridge 2.10 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.60 S/R 50%
1 Willmount 1.40 WIN 1.00 +0.40 +0.40 S/R 100%
MARCH: 14 WIN: 9 LOSE: 5 S/R: 64% PROFIT: +1.94
(141L1111211831) FINISHED First or Second (71.43%)
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7 Eternal Hope 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +2.37 S/R 71%
6 Hurricane Bay 1.53 WIN 1.00 +0.53 +1.27 S/R 67%
5 Kateira 1.91 WIN 1.00 +0.91 +0.74 S/R 60%
4 Bold Endeavour 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.17 S/R 50%
3 Spring Promise 2.10 WIN 1.00 +1.10 +0.83 S/R 67%
2 Since Day One 1.67 LOSE 1.00 -1.00 -0.27 S/R 50%
1 Luccia 1.73 WIN 1.00 +0.73 +0.73 S/R 100%
FEBRUARY: 7 WIN: 5 LOSE: 2 S/R: 71% PROFIT: +2.37
(1212111) FINISHED First or Second (100%)
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