GHARA 3.30 Yarmouth at 10/11

    Moulton Nurseries Maiden Stakes (Class 4) 1m3f104y

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 3-5 for 60%           (10)
National Average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 27%             (10)                        
OR & RPR: 92 & 106                  (10)  
Distance: 1m3f+                     (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Andrea Atzeni               (10) 
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 13%             (10)                                    
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 29%           (10)       
Total:                             (100)

Main danger: King Of The Plains

Eyecatcher on debut at 14/1

The 2yo Frankel filly Ghara went off at 14/1 on debut at Kempton last November over a mile in a Class 5 Novice Fillies' 14-runner race with Kieran O'Neill riding, so definitely not expected to trouble the judge. She dwelt at the start and was in rear before being shaken up on the outer when still plenty to do from 3f out. She made headway from over 2f out, soon switched right, in touch with leaders 1f out, kept on, and an eyecatcher. She was immediately put away after the race for this season.

Deemed good enough to race in a Listed Race on third start

Next up at Newbury in a Class 4 Maiden Fillies' Race over 1m2f on soft ground we thought some money might come for her now a 3yo but no. She went off at 14/1 again and ran if something amiss finishing last of 16 beaten around 80 lengths. Was it the soft ground? It was a surprise to see the filly then asked to race in an Oaks Fillies' Listed (1m4f) Race against a particular strong field and she left her previous run behind finishing 4th and beaten just 2½l under Rob Havlin. So 3 runs to date and 3 different jockeys, Andrea Atzeni will be number 4 and surely something not ideal?

Clear on ratings!

The fact Ghara was thought of enough to be thrown into Listed company at Lingfield recently by master trainer John Gosden told us loads! This daughter of Frankel has been handed a rating of 96 after that display, which sets an extremely high standard for this contest. For the record she has a RPR of 106 whilst the main danger has one of 89 so technically 17lbs clear and 36lbs clear of the third favourite. Even if the OR given was a tad high she looks a good thing back in a Maiden if she reproduces her last run! Also, we note she retains an entry for the Ascot Ribblesdale Stakes Group 2 in June confirming the high regard the trainer has for this filly despite form figures of 604.

Contender

King Of The Plains showed plenty of promise on debut at Chester and is likely to have much more to come after that experience, while Mythical Guest could get involved if seeing out this distance.

Timeform

   There's a suspicion that GHARA was ultimately flattered by her proximity to the winner when fourth in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield, but that effort nevertheless represented a significant step forward and she will take the world of beating back in maiden company. Liable shaped with far greater promise than his finishing position would suggest on debut at Windsor and he is second choice ahead of another likely improver in King of The Plains.

Value

Our Pacafi drops from a Listed Race with a Group 2 entry at Ascot next month to a Yarmouth Maiden Class 4. The even money and 10/11 must be north of perceived value or John Gosden has got things terribly wrong with this filly!

***