WINDSOR RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Monday 5 June 2023)

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The Racing Horse offers our Windsor Racecourse Template for Monday 29 May 2023. There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps and 2 Novice Races. The going is expected to be good to firm.

WINDSOR FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                  Handicap
2yo   46-105	44%   +4.69   4-13	31%    -1.50
3yo   49-104	47%   -2.92   61-215	28%   -49.06
4yo+   5-17	29%   -8.46   78-241	32%    +4.95
TOTAL 100-226	44%   -6.69   143-469	30%   -45.61

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Windsor last 5 years       +/-   E
R Hannon (11%)	   37-240   15%	  +13.74     +4%   4           
A Balding (15%)	   26-136   19%	  -19.99     +4%   2        
W Haggas (23%)	   25-78    32%	   +3.44     +9%   3        
R Beckett (17%)    20-116   17%    +0.66     +0%   1      
E J Houghton (12%) 18-128   14%	  -33.70     +2%   3         

C Appleby (29%)    10-21    48%    +2.87    +19%   0  

HOT TRAINERS 06/05/2023 to 04/06/2023        +/-   E
J & T Gosden (22%)    22-80   28%  +25.62    +6%   1
Muir & Grassick (14%) 4-18    22%   -5.25    +8%   1
R Beckett (17%)	      20-91   22%   -5.22    +5%   1
G L Moore (11%)	      15-71   21%   -1.00   +10%   1
A Haynes (13%)	      10-48   21%   -3.19    +8%   1

COLD LIST TRAINER SAW                              E
W Knight (11%) 	   37   122 days                   1

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Windsor last 5 years        +/-   R 
T Marquand (15%) 50-270	  19%	+106.93      +4%   7     
O Murphy (20%)	 47-236   20%	 -41.04      +0%   0     
J Doyle (19%)	 25-93	  27%	 +35.66      +8%   5   
S Levey (12%)	 23-155	  15%	 -15.46      +3%   2     
W Buick (23%)    22-79    28%     +6.18      +8%   6 

COLD LIST JOCKEYS   SAW                            R
G Dobie (9%)	     37    35 days                 1
M Ghiani (15%)	     31    15 days                 2
G Rooke (8%)	     23    19 days                 1
D Costello (8%)      23    22 days                 2
                         
TOP 5 OWNERS at Windsor last 5 years         +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	     15-56   27%   -14.77    +2%   0            
King Power (14%)     10-55   18%   -11.75    +4%   0          
Ahmed A Maktoum (25%) 9-29   31%   +29.47    +7%   0       
Cheveley Park (16%)   8-30   27%    +8.16   +11%   1         
Amo Racing (18%)      7-21   33%   +23.81   +15%   0   

Next fixtures
Monday 5 June 2023
Monday 12 June 2023
Monday 19 June 2023
Monday 26 June 2023

Upcoming Racecourse Templates:
Windsor (Monday)
Lingfield AW (Tuesday)
Kempton AW (Wednesday)

RACECOURSE TEMPLATES explained
What is a NATIONAL AVERAGE?
How to PROFIT from the PACAFI

WINDSOR RACECOURSE: This racecourse is idiosyncratic and a bit of a contradiction. Whilst the course is perfectly flat throughout and sharp in character, the length of the run-in is nearly five furlongs meaning galloping sorts are not inconvenienced. Personally, we do not back horses at this course on soft to heavy, or heavy ground though we occasional lay false favourites with a poor draw and a lesser jockey. Jockey bookings are always important, but when racing here on soft to heavy ground jockey bookings are critical.

RACECOURSE TEMPLATES: Some Racecourse Templates have bigger samples than others, and of course the bigger the sample is the better and more reliable the figures are. Windsor provides nearly 700 races over the past 5 years so a robust sample and one we can trust in a relative sense!

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Windsor over the past 5 years show 243-695 for a strike rate of 34.96% and a level stake loss of -52.30, so winning at around 2% above the national average. Favourites in non-handicaps win 100-226 for 44% (-6.69) but 2yos & 3yos in that category fare a little better scoring 95-209 at 45.45% and a profit of +1.77 and with a little filtration, one of our favourite angles in.

TRAINERS: Eve Johnson-Houghton (12%) is in red-hot form scoring 4 winners from her last 8 runners over the past week at prices of 10/3, 8/1, 5/1 & 11/2. She has 3 runners including BIG R 5.45, BUCCABAY 7.15 & GREG THE GREAT 8.45

JOCKEYS: This meeting sees Tom Marquand (15%) and William Buick (23%) go head-to-head for the riding honours and this looks a great angle in! Marquand rides this course brilliantly and scores at 19% (+106.93) and has a full book of 7 rides, they include IN THE GIVING 5.45, SKY WARRIOR 6.15. BUGLE BEADS 6.45, WILTSHIRE 7.15, FARASI LANDE 7.45, MOLLIANA 8.15 & CELTIC EMPRESS 8.45. He must surely ride a winner? Buick has 6 rides including SABAH AL WARD 5.45, MATNOOKH 6.15, REMINDER 6.45, SPARTON ARROW 7.15, NIGHT ARC 7.45 & PURE BUBBLES 8.15.

James Doyle (19%) has 5 rides whilst Sean Levey (12%) has 2, and we imagine their skills at the course will add to proceedings.

OWNERS: Only Cheveley Park (17%) from our leader board have a runner at Windsor tomorrow in BUGLE BEADS 6.45, an unraced 3yo Pivotal filly trained by William Haggas and to be ridden by Tom Marquand. The trainer runs 2 in this race so the betting market will be interesting!

RED FLAG: William Haggas (23%) has 3 runners at Windsor tomorrow but significantly sends a 2yo filly JE NE SAIS QUOI 2.30 to Thirsk and his figures at the course show 17-37 for 46% (+20.82) and Cieren Fallon rides. They must think she can handle the long trip and win! The trainer excels on his journeys north and we are always on red alert when he does so, check some of these strike-rates out: 

Beverley:     7-21    33%    (+1.21)
Carlisle:     4-12    33%    (+1.25)
Catterick:    7-15    47%    (+0.35)
Doncaster:    23-110  21%   (+18.81)
Hamilton:     6-15    40%    (+0.08)
Musselburgh:  7-15    50%    (+2.08)
Newcastle AW: 41-136  30%    (-4.05)
Redcar:       16-51   31%   (-10.18)
Ripon:        16-49   33%   (-13.98)
Thirsk:       17-37   46%   (+20.82)
Wetherby:     3-7     43%    (-0.61)

These figures are over the last 5 years and well worth a cut and paste. Make no mistake, these numbers only tell part of the story, just a modicum of good housekeeping/filtration could improve profits and strike-rate massively! Only Doncaster falls below his 23% national average, the rest of the courses score between +7% and +27% above his already high national average.

TRH offered this piece/system to the team at On Course Profits & Betting School well over 5 years ago. We have lost the original system parameters from our archive, but did find a revisited version a few years later, and although out of date, badly written, poorly presented and explained, it threw up some interesting information. If it does nothing else it confirms the William Haggas trips to the north remain a profitable angle.

WILLIAM HAGGAS UP NORTH SYSTEM (Revisited)

Of course, since that piece was written William Haggas has gone to another level on the world stage with Group horses, but most of the content remains somewhat relevant today.

PERTINENCE

5.45
BIG R (E Johnson-Houghton) beaten favourite last time out, Charles Bishop rides
IN THE GIVING (W Haggas) beaten favourite last time out, Tom Marquand rides and 36% on favourites
SABAH AL WARD (G Boughey) formerly with R Hughes, trainer 21% with handicap debutants, William Buick rides

6.15
BRAVE EMPIRE (R Varian) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, David Egan rides
THE LINE (R Hannon) drops from Class 2 to Class 4, trainer has won 2 of the last 9 runnings, Sean Levey rides
CHIEDOZIE (C Hills) trainer +£43.60 when one runner at a meeting, Kieran Shoemark rides

6.45
LADY DREAMER (T Ward) beaten favourite last time out, James Doyle rides
SWISS STAR (R Varian) 81 of Dark Angel's progeny have won on debut, David Egan rides
FLAME QUEEN (J Channon) 67 of Oasis Dream's progeny have won on debut, Charles Bishop rides

7.15
BATAL DUBAI (H & R Charlton) beaten favourite last time out, James Doyle rides and scores 27% at the track
SPARTAN ARROW (S & E Crisford) beaten favourite last time out, trainer +£20.92 when one runner at a meeting, William Buick rides
EMINENCY (C Cox) unlucky 4th on Kempton reappearance then good 3rd in strong Newmarket handicap (6f, good). Kieran Shoemark rides

7.45
SILVER GUNN (M Botti) C&D winner, trainer +£27.85 when one runner at a meeting, James Doyle rides and 27% at the track
SNAPCRACKLEPOP (Muir & Grassick) trainer +£74.19 when one runner at a meeting, Lewis Edmunds rides
FARASI LANE (T Ward) effective here and on fast ground, should stay, Tom Marquand rides

8.15
BLAZER TWO (M Scudamore) winner in the last 7 days, Callum Hutchinson rides
GEARING'S POINT (S West) trainer +£57.93 when one runner at a meeting, Rose Dawes (5) rides
PURE BUBBLES (G Moore) trainer +£87.74 when one runner at a meeting, William Buick rides

8.45
CLIFFS OF CAPRI (J Osborne) won £153,267.19 in prize money, beaten favourite last time out,  Dougie Costello rides
GRAND LIBYA (T Clover) beaten favourite last time out, James Doyle rides and 27% at the track
RAQRAAQ (P Chamings) beaten favourite last time out, Danny Muscutt rides

Windsor’s bottom turn has been christened ‘carnage corner’ and you can get into all sorts of trouble if the one in front slows down there, causing a concertina effect. It’s a sharp right-hander and if you employ different tactics, kicking-on on a front-runner there, you can really get those behind you at it, especially anybody caught wide. You need a balanced horses at Windsor, even though the course is flat, and a ballsy ride can pay dividends, because a path can often open up late-on on the stands’ rail - Jason Weaver

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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