KEMPTON AW (5 August 2026) - Key Factors
August 4th, 2026
The Racing Horse has built a KEY FACTOR summary for every race, each one shaped around context, p[...]
KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Wednesday 7 June 2023)
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The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW for Wednesday 7 June 2023. There is an 8-race card containing 5 Handicaps, 2 Novice Races and a Maiden Race. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow. Final edit tomorrow at 9am...
Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 107-271 39% -48.05 37-114 32% -7.32
3yo 126-269 47% -26.25 138-472 29% -87.01
4yo+ 45-114 39% -16.25 245-757 32% -43.37
TOTAL 278-654 43% -90.55 420-1343 31% -137.70
TOP 6 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E
J & T Gosden (21%) 74-317 23% -60.62 +2% 3
A Balding (15%) 69-416 17% +66.62 +2% 4
R Varian (20%) 62-261 24% -12.79 +4% 5
C Appleby (29%) 55-169 33% -23.89 +4% 2
R Hannon (11%) 54-476 11% -104.94 +0% 3
A Watson (16%) 46-259 18% -58.08 +2% 1
HOT TRAINERS 08/05/2023 to 06/06/2023 +/- E
S bin Suroor (21%) 4-14 29% +23.50 +8% 1
J & T Gosden (22%) 23-83 28% +27.62 +6% 3
Muir & Grassick (14%) 4-18 22% -5.25 +8% 1
R Beckett (17%) 19-87 23% -3.42 +6% 4
COLD LIST TRAINERS SAW E
W Knight (11%) 39 125 days 1
Miss A Murphy (10%) 31 13 days 2
M Bell (12%) 25 18 days 1
H Spiller (9%) 25 88 days 1
B Millman (11%) 28 22 days 2
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R
D Probert (11%) 89-799 11% -124.88 +0% 0
H Doyle (15%) 85-565 15% -77.51 +0% 5
O Murphy (20%) 84-411 20% -50.99 +0% 7
J Doyle (19%) 63-287 22% -6.20 +3% 0
T Marquand (15%) 63-531 12% - 111.03 -3% 7
HOT JOCKEYS 08/05/2023 to 06/06/2023 +/- R
F Dettori (23%) 11-33 33% +15.61 +10% 1
H Crouch (14%) 12-62 19% +0.53 +5% 3
TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E
Godolphin (25%) 91-326 28% -52.24 +3% 3
Hamdan Maktoum (22%) 31-116 27% +67.81 +5% 0
King Power (14%) 25-135 19% -28.60 +5% 1
Shadwell Est (24%) 15-51 29% +11.49 +5% 0
Ahmed Maktoum (25%) 14-58 24% -12.27 -2% 1
FIXTURES:
7 June 2023
14 June 2023
UPCOMING RACECOURSE TEMPLATES:
Thirsk (Friday)
Haydock (Saturday)
SAW: Since a winner E: Entries R: Rides
RACECOURSE TEMPLATES explained
What is a NATIONAL AVERAGE?
FAVOURITES: Our Kempton Racecourse Template contains a huge sample size (almost 2,000 races) and these figures should be absorbed if not acted upon. Winning favourites at the course over the past 5 years show 698-1997 for a strike rate of 35.09% so about 3% above the national average. A £1 stake on each favourite shows a loss of -228.25 to SP. There is a 12% differential between winning non-handicap favourites and winning handicap favourites (43% v 31%). Best strike rates are 3yo favourites in non-handicaps scoring at 47%, whilst the worst is 3yo winning favourites in handicaps scoring at 29%. The suggestion is to look closely at those 3yo favourites in non-handicaps, just a modicum of filtration would have produced a profit to level stakes.
TRAINERS: Our very best UK trainers are almost certain to dominate the card tomorrow. The top 6 trainers have 18 runners between them tomorrow and will surely win most of the races.
JOCKEYS: Of the jockeys Oisin Murphy (20%) has 7 rides and so does Tom Marquand (15%). William Buick (23%) has 6 rides whilst Hollie Doyle (15%) has 5 rides. Strange that Frankie Dettori (23%) goes to Kempton for just one ride and for Ralph Beckett and not the Gosdens.
OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) have 3 entries tomorrow including DAZZLING STAR 5.50, RAINBOW SKY 7.50 & MOVING LIGHT 8.25. At first glance there does not appear to be a stand-out winner and we dig a little deeper on our Red Flag segment.
RED FLAG: Charlie Appleby (29%) and 33% at Kempton is a trainer to follow and filter at this course especially, he has 2 runners tomorrow including DAZZLING STAR 5.50 & RAINBOW SKY. First of all we are duty bound to report the trainer is 2-22 for 9% over the last 14 days and 0-10 over the last 7 days. This is not something we see very often regarding his runners. Of course, one of his losers was the shocking run of Military Order (Pacafi) who finished last in the Derby! By the way, the stable has said their horse was not suited by Epsom, not sure we buy that, there must be another reason!
DAZZLING STAR: This 2yo was foaled 7 March and a Blue Point filly. She is a half-sister to 2yo 7f winner Wakening and smart winner up to 1m Bold Act. Dam was a 1m winner. She has obvious claims and in regards to our strategy we have backed her ½pt win at 5/1 (Bet365) and also backed her main rival HELLFIRE BAY ½pt win at 9/4 (general). Stall 10 of 10 is not great, but we do have William Buick in the saddle and if anyone can find a pitch he can.
RAINBOW SKY: She is 3yo filly and a sister to 7f-1m4f winner Star Terms and a half-sister to three other winners; off the mark on debut at Kempton (1m) in November; probably did too much in front when well held in fillies' conditions race over same C&D on next start in April; held again in 10f novice stakes at Wetherby at the end of the same month. She has been handed a stiff mark for handicap debut and we are not staking her tomorrow.
Members might want to cut and paste/log the trainer's only runner on Thursday in QUEEN OF FAIRIES 6.20 Chelmsford. After winning on debut she was made favourite for a Listed Race at Newmarket and now drops into a Class 2 on the AW. This race is for those with no more than two runs so looks an opportunity for her to get back on track...
PERTINENCE5.15
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| The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics - Jason Weaver |