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KEMPTON RACECOURSE TEMPLATE (Wednesday) 14 June 2023
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The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW for Wednesday 14 June 2023. There is an 8-race card containing 6 Handicaps and Novice Fillies' Races. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow. |
Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 108-272 40% -46.55 37-114 32% -7.32
3yo 128-271 47% -23.05 139-474 29% -86.01
4yo+ 45-114 39% -16.25 245-760 32% -46.37
TOTAL 281-657 43% -85.55 421-1348 31% -139.70
TOP 6 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E
J & T Gosden (22%) 74-317 23% -60.62 +1% 3
A Balding (15%) 69-416 17% +66.62 +2% 2
R Varian (20%) 62-261 24% -12.79 +4% 0
C Appleby (29%) 55-169 33% -23.89 +4% 0
R Hannon (11%) 54-476 11% -104.94 +0% 0
A Watson (16%) 46-259 18% -58.08 +2% 2
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R
D Probert (11%) 89-799 11% -124.88 +0% 5
H Doyle (15%) 85-565 15% -77.51 +0% 0
O Murphy (20%) 84-411 20% -50.99 +0% 0
J Doyle (19%) 63-287 22% -6.20 +3% 0
T Marquand (15%) 63-531 12% - 111.03 -3% 0
TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E
Godolphin (25%) 91-326 28% -52.24 +3% 0
Hamdan Maktoum (22%) 31-116 27% +67.81 +5% 0
King Power (14%) 25-135 19% -28.60 +5% 0
Shadwell Est (24%) 15-51 29% +11.49 +5% 0
Ahmed Maktoum (25%) 14-58 24% -12.27 -2% 2
FIXTURES:
14 June 2023
UPCOMING RACECOURSE TEMPLATES:
Chepstow (Friday)
York (Saturday)
SAW: Since a winner E: Entries R: Rides
RACECOURSE TEMPLATES explained
What is a NATIONAL AVERAGE?
FAVOURITES: Our Kempton Racecourse Template contains a huge sample size (over 2,000 races) and these figures should be absorbed if not acted upon. Winning favourites at the course over the past 5 years show 702-2005 for a strike rate of 35.01% so about 3% above the national average. A £1 stake on each favourite shows a loss of -225.25 to SP. There is a 12% differential between winning non-handicap favourites and winning handicap favourites (43% v 31%). Best strike rates are 3yo favourites in non-handicaps scoring at 47%, whilst the worst is 3yo winning favourites in handicaps scoring at 29%. The suggestion is to look closely at those 3yo favourites in non-handicaps, just a modicum of filtration would have produced a profit to level stakes.
TRAINERS: A lot of the top trainers are in attendance at Kempton tomorrow but one absentee is Roger Varian (20%). He has his horses performing much better recently as promised, his last 14 days show 9-44 for 20%, but have members noticed he trained 5 consecutive second places last Saturday? Ouch" We should not use the word sense but we do sense he will let rip this Friday and Saturday. He is a trainer to be followed from here!
J & T Gosden (22%) is in red-hot form and the top trainer at the track and runs 3 tomorrow and 2 in the same race so market clues needed. His runners are DEEP DIVE 5.40, TEOWINGS & DOROTHEA BROOKE 6.10. We note Rob Havlin chooses Teowing over Dorothea Brooke, we cannot know how significant that is.
Andrew Balding (15%) is always competitive and he runs GRAND PROVIDENCE 6.10 & GRENHAM BAY 7.10
JOCKEYS: Only David Probert (11%) from our leader is involved tomorrow and he has 5 rides, they are COCO ROYALE 5.40, GRAND PROVIDENCE 6.10, GRENHAM BAY 7.10, G'DAAY 7.40 & TAWTHEEF. He must go close to riding a winner.
We are a big fan of Rossa Ryan (14%) and he has 6 rides. Danny Muscutt (13%) has 6 rides and so does Luke Morris (9%). Rob Havlin (15%) has 5 rides.
Interestingly Frankie Dettori (23%) has 2 rides and LADY BOBA 6.10 looks the main reason for his visit! That said MILE END 7.10 has TAWALLA & GRENHAM BAY to beat but looks certain to leave his debut run for the stable behind. Formerly with Johnny Murtagh. Tricky race but we have probably named the winner.
Should he be retiring just yet? Setting aside his big race wins this season, his last month shows 10-30 for 33% (+13.20)
Jamie Spencer (13%) appears to be winding things down. Has he announced his retirement again and we have not heard about it? He has only had 10 rides for June so far, a time when all the good jockeys would be booked to ride the next generation. Since March he shows just 7-83 for 8.43%. He only has 1 ride at Kempton but notice he has 5 rides at Yarmouth on Thursday. Have always believed that Spencer is a great horseman with a great brain, but with a different attitude could have been a great jockey. Only my opinion, I could be wrong.
OWNERS: Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum (25%) has a big national average and he has 2 runners at Kempton tomorrow in TARRAFF 5.40 (S & E Crisford) & TAWALLA 7.10 (C Fellowes). These horses need processing.
RED FLAG: Something we have always found interesting about Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum is his numbers. The last 5-years show 181-721 for 25% (+25.88) and £3½m in prize money suggesting his horses are well placed with his different trainers. Included in the figures are 209 second places so 390-721 finish first or second for 54.17%. Is this a system I hear you ask? The runners are regular and we have a big sample to consider. One imagines a modicum of filtration could easily build on the 54%.
2yo AW: 12-55 22% -7.87 2yo Turf: 17-71 24% +5.02 3yo AW: 46-146 32% -5.29 3yo Turf: 78-301 26% +58.09 4yo AW: 9-36 25% -13.55 4yo Turf: 19-112 17% -2.52 Total: 181-721 25% +25.88
The figures above show him scoring 124-447 for a big 28% (+52.80) with 3yos on the AW & Turf and a good angle in. With 3yos on both surfaces he shows placed horses scoring 247-301 for 82%. Be reminded, these are blind figures with zero filtration, and there are enough runners to keep most bettors interested throughout the year. As always, we have to ask the question about fatigue, there is no evidence to suggest this will be a factor especially given he is an owner and not a trainer etc...
PERTINENCE5.05
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| The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics - Jason Weaver |