BOBBY SOCKS 4.50 Perth at 4/5

     Gleneagles Project Services Programme Management Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) 2m4f35y

Pedigree

Second foal; dam well beaten bumpers/hurdles/point, half-sister to 2m2f chase/2m4f hurdle winner Mount Gunnery and useful 2m-2m4f chase winner Admiral's Secret, is granddaughter of 3m hurdle winner

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 5-9 for 56%           (10)
National Average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 21%             (10)                       
OR & RPR: 101 & 114                 (10)  
Distance: 2m4f                      (10)                       
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Sean Bowen                  (10) 
National Average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 32%             (10)                                                
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 18%           (10)       
Total:                             (100)

Career best last time, races off the same mark!

Bobby Socks posted a career best when readily accounting for an in-form rival and winning a 9-runner handicap hurdle at Southwell over 2m4f on good to firm ground 10 days ago. He travelled kindly into contention and won with arguably a bit more in hand than the winning margin implies. A Newton Abbot bumper winner, a sharp flat track is ideal.

The step up in trip on good ground looked the key when the 6yo got off the mark over hurdles at the seventh attempt. Because it was a conditional riders' event, he is able to compete off the same mark of 101 and technically 8lb well in as he takes on just three rivals. The win was his second run back after 126 days break, so one imagines him to be at peak fitness for tomorrow. He should follow up over this intermediate trip of 2m4f, that clearly suited at Southwell last time. 

Trainer & Jockey Form

Trainer Olly Murphy could not be in better form with his horses as 5 of the last 9 have won! In stark contrast his three rival trainers cannot be considered in-form. Patrick Neville (16%) 0-4 over 69 days, R Mike Smith (4%) 0-16 over 49 days & Lisa Harrison (4%) 0-35 over 361 days! Please note the trainer's national averages in context to this wager! Murphy scores above his national average at Perth showing 18-84 for 21% (+11.74) and when jockey Sean Bowen rides for him score 50-271 for 18% (-25.32), but 33-168 for 20% over hurdles.

Sean Bowen has exceptional figures at Perth and knows every inch of the course in all conditions. He records 40-126 for 32% (+8.88) winning £335,369 in prize money. Significantly, his ratios to win v second places are strong, with 21 second places recorded this number is ½ measured against those that he wins! These numbers matter.

Contender

Haribo Collonges is the only real danger. He is a course and distance winner, rated 6lbs superior and had wind surgery at the beginning of June, but has to give the Pacafi 8lbs who is likely to step forward again from his last win.

Timeform View

It's hard to get away from BOBBY SOCKS, who carries no penalty for his recent Southwell success. Haribo Collonges is feared most.

Value 

The 4/5 looks perceived value given our rationale. Our Pacafi has just run a personal best and now faces out of form trainers. We would have taken 8/11.

Bobby Socks traded at a high of 4.00 and Betfair SP of 3.59 when winning last time, a race in which it raced towards the rear and travelled strongly early on.

 4 Bobby Socks       1.80  WIN   1.00  +0.80  +1.57  S/R  75%
 3 Labalaba          1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +0.77  S/R  67%
 2 New London        2.10  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.37  S/R  50%
 1 Star Of Mystery   2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.37  +1.37  S/R 100%

16 Shadan Joy         1.56  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +5.68  S/R  75% 
15 Imperial Emperor   1.40  WIN   1.00  +0.40  +6.68  S/R  80%  
14 Tahiyra            1.62  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +6.28  S/R  79%
13 Theatre Honours    1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +5.66  S/R  77%
12 Tax For Max R4     1.83  WIN   1.00  +0.62  +4.75  S/R  75% 
11 Royal Mila         1.57  WIN   1.00  +0.57  +4.13  S/R  73%
10 River Tara         1.53  WIN   1.00  +0.53  +3.46  S/R  70%       
 9 Unbreak My Heart   1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +2.93  S/R  67% 
 8 Blinded'lights R4  2.50  WIN   1.00  +1.35  +2.02  S/R  63%
 7 Aurora Vega        1.36  WIN   1.00  +0.36  +0.67  S/R  57%
 6 Mojeyrr            1.91  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.31  S/R  50%
 5 Wind In Your Sail  2.25  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.31  S/R  60%
 4 Basford            1.67  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  +0.16  S/R  50%
 3 Je Ne Sais Quoi    2.37  WIN   1.00  +1.25  +1.16  S/R  67%
 2 Military Order     6.00  LOSE  1.00  -1.00  -0.09  S/R  50%
 1 Ghara              1.91  WIN   1.00  +0.91  +0.91  S/R 100%