NEWMARKET FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo   49-118	42%   -12.63	6-17	 35%    -4.50
3yo   25-57	44%    -7.58	76-222	 34%   -32.57
4yo+  7-24	29%    -6.78	45-123	 37%   +11.65
TOTAL 81-199	41%   -26.98	127-362	 35%   -25.42

TOP 5 TRAINERS NEWMARKET 5 years              +/-   E
C Appleby (29%)	   60-184   33%	   -8.24      +4%   1                             
R Hannon (11%)	   32-246   13%	  -45.23      +2%   2
J & T Gosden (22%) 42-193   18%    -9.28      -4%   3                   
W Haggas (23%)	   21-128   16%	  -45.77      -7%   1                  
S Bin Suroor (20%) 17-56    30%   +25.53     +10%   1  

HOT TRAINERS 22/06/2023 to 21/07/2023         +/-   E  
C Appleby (29%)	     17-56    30%    +3.15    +1%   1
H & R Charlton (16%) 10-34    29%    +4.60   +13%   1
T Clover (12%)       8-29     28%   +17.56   +16%   2 
W Haggas (23%)       22-93    24%   +12.13    +1%   1
G Boughey (17%)      13-60    22%    +5.03    +5%   1
T Ward (10%)         5-23     22%    +7.25   +12%   1   
E Walker (14%)       14-65    22%   +11.78    +8%   2

COLD LIST TRAINERS   SAW                            E  
G Margarson (10%)     26    55 days                 1               
C Fellowes (12%)      25    28 days                 1                                             
      
TOP JOCKEYS NEWMARKET 5 years                 +/-   R
W Buick (23%)	55-194	  28%	-31.97        +6%   0                   
J Doyle (19%)	39-210	  19%	-69.30        +0%   5               
O Murphy (19%)	20-99	  20%	+37.37        +1%   0      
R Havlin (15%)  17-106    16%   -31.13        +1%   0          
A Atzeni (15%)	15-96	  16%	 +2.90        +1%   6      
        
HOT JOCKEYS 22/06/2023 to 21/07/2023          +/-   R
C Planas (15%)	12-60	20%	 +3.88        +5%   3
J Fahy (11%)	4-20	20%	 +3.41        +9%   1
T Queally (9%)	6-38	16%	+35.12        +7%   1

COLD LIST JOCKEY   SAW                              R  
K O'Neill (9%)	    34   15 days                    3
R Dawson (12%)	    34   27 days                    3                             

TOP 5 OWNERS NEWMARKET 5 years                +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	      78-257   30%    +1.53   +6%   2                 
H Al Maktoum (22%)    15-60    25%   +17.25   +3%   0           
Cheveley Park (17%)   11-48    23%   +13.12   +6%   0 
Obaid A Maktoum (19%) 8-53     15%    -8.34   -4%   2              
Al Shaqab (14%)	      7-18     39%    +9.50  +25%   0           

Fixtures: 				
Saturday 22 July 2023
Friday 28 July 2023
Saturday 29 July 2023
Friday 4 August 2023

COURSE: The July Course is 2m1f in extent with a right-handed bend at halfway, the first mile being part of the Cesarewitch course, the last the straight Bunbury mile. Notwithstanding the undulations for the first three quarters of a mile of the straight, the course then running downhill for a furlong before climbing to the line, it is galloping in character and favours big, long-striding sorts. As with the Rowley Mile course, ability to see out the trip thoroughly is essential.

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Newmarket (July) show 208-561 for 37.08% (-52.40) so around +5% above the national average. Given the +5% we regard the course to be favourite friendly though today might be tricky?

TRAINERS: Roger Varian could be the trainer of the day and is covered in our Red Flag segment.

Hard to see an obvious winner from the usual suspects of J & T Gosden (22%) and Charlie Appleby (29%) but William Haggas (23%) has an interesting runner in the 3yo Sea The Stars filly TRUTHFUL 4.15. His wife Maureen told us last month: "Truthful is a nice filly. She's a work in progress and is something to look forward to. She was a bit more on the ball today but that's her trip. Royal Ascot will come too soon. We trained her sister Sea On Time last year and she would be a stakes filly but sadly got a tendon and was retired. It's a nice family." We always take her comments seriously but is the current 4/1 perceived value - we do not know!

JOCKEYS: Two jockeys and their bookings stand out for this meeting.

James Doyle (18%) has 5 rides and will go close to a winner, they include: CAROLINA REAPER 2.30, ONE NATION 3.40, TIME LOCK 4.15, MOUSH 4.50 & CANDLE OF HOPE 5.25. Interesting, James Doyle has always been a 19% national average jockey, but for the first time for ages dropped to 18%.

 Similarly, Andrea Atzeni (15%) has dropped from 16% to 15% and he has a full book of 6 rides and think he will record a winner, they include: SQUEAKER 2.30, ALMATY STAR 3.05, SAXON KING 3.40, GHARA 4.15, TWILIGHT GUEST 4.50 & FINAL WATCH 5.25.

OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) have 2 runners in the same race, they are ONE NATION (C Appleby) & FIRST VIEW (Saeed bin Suroor) 3.40. Both have the ability to win but a bit to prove so a watching brief today.

Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum (20%) have just scored with 4 of their last 5 runners, they also have 2 runners in LIBERTY LANE 3.40 & NOVAKAI 4.15, both trained by Karl Burke.

RED FLAG: We can expect Roger Varian (20%) to be on the premises today. He runs 11 horses at 3 courses and will have winners, his runners in time order include DEBORAH'S DREAM 1.15 Newbury, POSTILEO 2.25 Newbury, AL HUJAIJA 2.30 Newmarket, MITBAAHY 3.00 Newbury, ALMATY STAR 3.05 Newmarket, AL SAIF 4.10 Newbury, SOUND ANGELA 4.15 Newmarket, RED DANIELLE 4.45, KODIMAN 4.50 Newmarket, EXIMIOUS 5.20 Newbury & CLASSIC TIMES 8.30 Haydock.

We are aware and acknowledge his mediocre numbers (relatively speaking) at the 3 racecourse today. For example:

NEWBURY:        20-142 for 14%   -6%
NEWMARKET JULY: 17-114 for 15%   -5%
HAYDOCK:        14-107 for 13%   -7%

There are 22 UK Racecourses where he scores above his national average of 20%. All figures over the past 5-years. Another negative for Varian are his strike rates this season, for example: April 8%, May 13%, June 17% and July 19%. The incline suggests 20%+ for August.

We remind ourselves the trainer scores 6-29 for 21% (+1.20) with his 2yos this current year. The strike rate is just above his national average but the winning numbers look a little down from the expected. In context he scored 30-138 for 22% for 2022 and in 2020 he scored 40-203 for 20%, so with July coming to an end he looks considerably shy. We will definitely be watching this space and urge members to cut and paste this reminder.

BY THE WAY: There is absolutely no intention to patronise, but we genuinely feel cutting and pasting some of the template information is really helpful going forward and not just on the day. The above segment is a classic example, and we fully expect an upturn for this trainer across the board and especially with his 2yos.