PAYMENT IN KIND 3.20 Wolverhampton at 8/11

     Racing League On Sky Sports Racing Restricted Maiden Stakes (Class 5) 6f20y

Pedigree

€27,000 Y; second foal; dam 1m AW 2yo winner (RPR 88), half-sister to UAE 9.5f dirt winner Bright Start out of maiden sister to US Graded stakes-placed 6.5f-1m winner

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 1-7 for 14%           (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 0%               (7)                     
RPR: 86                             (10)  
Distance: 6f                        (10)                     
Optimum Ground: Good, good to soft  (10)
Jockey: William Buick               (10) 
National Average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 22%             (10)                                               
Trainer/Jockey Combo: NA            (10)       
Total:                              (97)

Plenty of promise on debut

Payment In Kind is a €27,000 purchase as a yearling, and out of a 1m 2yo AW winner. The 2yo Profitable colt must have been showing something to his trainer given his Class 4 entry debut at Newbury. There, he shaped with plenty of promise when only getting ran out of it late on, promising to improve next time out!

Ran a blinder in a Class 2 Super Sprint

Next up, his trainer deemed him good enough to contest the Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes Class 2 over 5f34y on good to soft ground, and the colt ran a blinder finishing 3rd, picking up £24,600 in prize money. In this much deeper race he would have finished second and collected £52,275, had he been able to launch his challenge earlier. Tomorrow is a Class 5 over further so a huge drop in class! This looks more his optimum distance and now has the brilliant William Buick in the saddle - a most significant jockey booking! 

Has scope to improve - Harry Eustace

Harry Eustace told us this is a horse to follow: "He's a two-year-old and I quite like him, he's by Profitable and is mentally very good. Physically, he's taking the work so far very well too. He has run to a fair level of ability without winning so far and he runs at Wolverhampton this week where I hope he would be pretty competitive. He has an entry in the Tattersalls Sales race in Ireland where you would hope he could pick up some prize money there. He has the scope to improve from two to three, but he has already paid for himself with his third in the Super Sprint at Newbury."

Trainer form

This colt could be the best one he has had since he started training in April 2021. His national average is 16% and he scores 2yo winners on Turf for a moderate 6-62 for 10%. However, his Wolverhampton figures make for horrible reading showing 0-25 for 0%, included within those figures are 6 second places. These figures look like an anomaly and we have set them aside given the rest of our rationale!

The booking of jockey William Buick is more than significant, and although his mount is drawn 7 of 7 the 6f start gives him a chance to get across and tuck in before the bend. Buick has ridden 86 winners at this course and 20-92 for 22% with 2yos all time, but 29% over the past 5 years.

Timeform View 

PAYMENT IN KIND sets the bar pretty high for a race like this and should take a bit of stopping. The drop to 6f isn't necessarily an obvious move for Eminent Jewel given that she was nearest at the finish on her 7f course debut but she shaped promisingly and still looks the one likely to chase the selection home.

Value

The 4/6 looks perceived value though we had scribble 4/5 on our notepad yesterday. That might have been wishful thinking in hindsight!

PACAFI Results 2023