ZENJABEELA 4.55 Southwell at evens

     Vickers.Bet App Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 4) 7f14y

Pedigree

 (n/s 220,000gns Y); fourth foal; half-sister to 7.4f 2yo winner Cell Sa Beela (RPR 84) and Argentinan 7f winners Aazif and Azoom; dam unraced half-sister to Group 1 winners Alpha Centauri (1m), Alpine Star (1m) and Discoveries (7f 2yo)

  COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 10-43 for 23%         (10)
National Average: 20%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 18%             (10)                     
RPR: 88                             (10)  
Distance: 7f                        (10)                     
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Ray Dawson                  (10) 
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: %                (8)                                              
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 18%           (10)       
Total:                              (98)

Excellent debut against an experienced winner!

Zenjabeela was foaled 13 February and is a half-sister to Cell Sa Beela, who won at 7f. She was 3rd of 7 behind Race The Wind (Godolphin) when beaten just 2½l when 9/2 on her racecourse debut at Newmarket over 7f in a Class 3 on good to soft ground last month when conceding experience to a smart winner!

The ground was titled good to soft, but the clerk of the course later said the conditions were closer to soft and we doubt that helped Zenjabeela, her gait suggested faster ground would be her optimum. Her 3yo sister Cell Sa Beela won a Novice race on good ground and only raced on good to soft once from 6 starts. Also, for a debutant there was a strong cross wind from the stands' to the far side that couldn't have helped either so we upgraded the run!

Group entries?

That winner from that race had shaped nicely behind a stablemate over C&D on debut and improved from that effort to claim an opening win. She has a top pedigree and an entry in the Group 1 Moyglare.  The Pacafi would have been more of a factor in the finish had she not run green for pressure and will come on a ton for the run. She now drops from a Newmarket Class 3 to a Southwell Class 4 Maiden Fillies' race with a Group 2 entry at Newmarket in late September over 7f. She will have to win this to take up that engagement!

Trainer and Jockey

The combination between trainer and jockey shows 32-176 for 18% (-51.57) over the past 5 years, so very good figures. The trainer Roger Varian showed 4-16 for 25% last year at the course though just 1-12 for 8% this year. We know the trainer excels with his 2yos and this current year he shows 11-53 for 21% (+10.26) whilst his 5-year figures on the AW show 55-240 for 23%.

A negative to the wager is the figures of Ray Dawson who shows 2-30 for just 7% at Southwell AW (including Fibresand rides) over the past 5 years (-5.00), though 1-9 for 11% (-3.00) for 2022 and 0-6 for 0% (-6.00) this current year. This is not a complicated racecourse however!

Timeform View 

  ZENJABEELA produced a promising first effort when third in a Newmarket maiden 5 weeks ago and this looks a good opening for her. Deep Blue shaped like this extra 1f will suit when third at Leicester so is the obvious threat, while Lumiere d'Or is a newcomer to note having proved popular at the Breeze Ups.

Value

The even money looks perceived value - we would not have offered 4/5 as a bookmaker. She must set forward from the debut run and has drawn stall 2 to help her jockey find an early pitch.

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