How best to ride Lingfield AW
October 12th, 2025
DAVID PROBERT on LINGFIELD
It's probably the most idiosyncratic of the AW tracks because of the hill[...]
KEMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Wednesday 18 October 2023)
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The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 18 October 2023. There is a 9-race card containing 5 Handicaps and 2 Novice Races.The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow. |
Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap Handicap
2yo 119-302 39% -53.54 38-123 31% -13.82
3yo 138-288 48% -19.08 155-516 30% -74.16
4yo+ 46-115 40% -15.53 254-794 32% -50.24
TOTAL 303-705 43% -87.95 447-1433 31% -138.22
TOP 6 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E
J & T Gosden (21%) 79-336 24% -66.05 +3% 0
A Balding (15%) 77-468 16% +37.93 +2% 1
R Varian (20%) 69-286 24% -9.71 +4% 3
C Appleby (29%) 58-179 32% -26.92 +3% 0
R Hannon (11%) 57-506 11% -115.44 +0% 4
A Watson (15%) 46-281 16% -80.08 +1% 0
HOT TRAINERS 18/09/2023 to 17/10/2023 +/- E
J Macey (9%) 5-15 33% +16.00 +24% 1
M Blake (11%) 6-19 32% -1.00 +21% 1
B Brookhouse (14%) 6-22 27% -2.00 +13% 1
D Simcock (13%) 8-32 25% +6.50 +12% 1
P Chapple-Hyam (11%) 5-20 25% +41.75 +14% 2
R Beckett (18%) 20-90 22% -7.55 +4% 1
W Kittow (8%) 4-19 21% +10.00 +13% 1
E Walker (14%) 11-55 20% -2.12 +6% 3
J Tate (18%) 5-26 19% -4.00 +1% 1
COLD LIST TRAINERS SAW E
J Portman (8%) 45 33 days 2
T Dascombe (12%) 43 56 days 1
J Butler (9%) 37 32 days 2
TOP 6 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R
O Murphy (19%) 95-455 21% -48.27 +2% 7
D Probert (12%) 93-839 11% -134.76 -1% 6
H Doyle (15%) 87-590 15% -90.01 +0% 0
J Doyle (19%) 69-308 22% -11.50 +3% 4
R Kingscote (13%) 67-479 14% -88.53 +1% 7
T Marquand (15%) 66-576 11% -143.41 -4% 0
HOT JOCKEY 18/09/2023 to 17/10/2023 +/- R
G Downing (7%) 4-9 44% +2.00 +37% 2
T Jakes (13%) 2-9 22% -6.00 +9% 1
O Murphy (19%) 27-141 19% -5.70 +0% 7
COLD LIST JOCKEY SAW R
S Cherchi (10%) 24 33 days 2
D Costello (8%) 23 22 days 1
G Rooke (8%) 21 22 days 2
TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E
Godolphin (25%) 95-347 27% -64.87 +2% 0
Hamdan Maktoum (22%) 31-116 27% +67.81 +5% 0
King Power (13%) 25-143 17% -36.60 +4% 2
Shadwell Est (24%) 16-55 29% +8.63 +5% 0
Ahmed Maktoum (24%) 16-73 22% +10.72 -3% 0
FIXTURES:
Wednesday 18 October 2023
Wednesday 25 October 2023
Wednesday 1 November 2023
UPCOMING RACECOURSE TEMPLATES:
Newcastle AW (Friday)
Ascot (Saturday)
FAVOURITES: Our Kempton AW Racecourse Template contains a huge sample size giving the figures a robust and trusted look! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5 years show 750-2138 at 35.08% so 3% above the national average. A £1 stake on each favourite shows a loss of -£226.17 to SP. There is a 12% differential between winning non-handicap favourites and winning handicap favourites (43% v 31%).
Best strike rates are 3yo favourites in non-handicaps scoring at 48%, whilst the worst of the six categories are the 3yo winning favourites in handicaps scoring 30% so a big 18% differential which should be acknowledged. The betting advice is to look closely at 3yo favourites in non-handicaps, just a modicum of filtration would have produced a profit to level stakes, our favourite angle into the meeting!
TRAINERS: Roger Varian (20%) scores 24% at Kempton and has 3 runners including AL SAIF 5.30, FOX MASTER & SONNERIE POWER 8.00
Michael Appleby (11%) looks to have a batch of forward 2yos this year and note he is 5-21 for 24% (+16.00). Of those beaten 5 have finished 2nd, 3 have finished 3rd and 2 have finished 4th, meaning 15-21 for 71.43% have finished in the first 4 places. He runs an Advertise colt DR FOSTER 7.00 who looks to have a great chance but Alistair Rawlinson rides.
Richard Hannon (11%) has just got off the cold list but 1-45 for just 2% in the last 14 days. He has 4 runners today.
Tom Dascombe is struggling these days, really struggling. Here is a reminder of his numbers this year:
2YO 9-112 8% -49.81 3YO 1-31 3% -19.00 4YO+ 0-13 0% -13.00 OVERALL 10-156 6% -81.81
He has one runner at the course tonight in DAN DEE PRINCE 7.00 and it will be a major surprise if that one is involved at the business end.
JOCKEYS: Oisin Murphy (19%) has 7 rides tonight and could be the jockey to follow, his rides include EZRA CEE 5.30, MOUSH 6.00, CURTIZ 6.30, BLAKE 7.00, WIZARDING 7.30, ARTHUR'S DREAM 8.00 & BOBBY KENNEDY 8.30
Richard Kingscote (13%) has 7 rides, David Probert (12%) has 6 and James Doyle (19%) has 4 rides and there must be a winner or two from this trio.
OWNERS: King Power (13%) have 2 runners in FOX MASTER 7.30 & SONNERIE POWER 8.00. Both are trained by Roger Varian and appear to have places chances.
PERTINENCE4.20
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| The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics - Jason Weaver |