The Racing Horse offers our Taunton Racecourse Template for Saturday 30 December 2023. There is a 7-race card and the going is expected to be soft.

Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
Hurdle	57-97	 59%	+7.18	50-140	 36%	 +4.10
Chase	5-8	 63%	+1.29	36-90	 40%	+21.09
NHF	5-18	 28%	-5.38	0-0		
TOTAL	67-123	 54%	+3.10	86-230	 37%	+25.19

TOP 5 TRAINERS at TAUNTON for past 5 years     +/-   E
Paul Nicholls (24%)   48-174   28%  -25.82     +4%   4
Philip Hobbs (15%)    25-140   18%  -28.00     +3%   2
Neil Mulholland (13%) 13-107   12%   -0.19     -1%   2
Joe Tizzard (13%)     12-117   10%  -45.16     -3%   2
Harry Fry (18%)	      11-64    17%  -20.95     -1%   0

HOT TRAINERS 30/11/2023 to 29/12/2023          +/-   E 
R L Llewellyn (15%) 4-13    31%	  +23.50      +16%   1
F O'Brien (19%)	    14-51   28%	   -4.00       +9%   2
V Williams (17%)    16-60   27%	   -4.50      +10%   1
O Murphy (17%)      13-52   25%	   -3.56       +8%   2
N T-Davies (15%)    14-58   24%	   +1.08       +9%   2

COLD LIST TRAINER SAW                                E
M Keighley (12%)   54    62 days                     2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at TAUNTON for past 5 years      +/-   R
Harry Cobden (23%)   39-142   27%   -16.01     +4%   0
Rex Dingle (14%)     10-62    16%   -14.62     +2%   3
Ben Jones (14%)	     10-69    14%   -32.25     +0%   0
David Prichard (13%) 9-34     26%   +30.70    +13%   0
David Bass (15%)     7-40     18%    -3.20     +3%   0

HOT JOCKEYS 30/11/2023 to 29/12/2023           +/-   R
Cameron Iles (32%)  4-5	   80%	 +12.25       +48%   1
James Smith (18%)   2-4	   50%	  +9.00       +32%   1
Alice Stevens (13%) 4-21   19%	  +7.00        +6%   3

COLD LIST JOCKEY    SAW                              R
Sean Houlihan (6%)   43    41 days                   2  

TOP 5 OWNERS at TAUNTON past 5 years           +/-   E
John P McManus (17%)   7-46   15%    +0.12     -2%   0
Bradley Partner (10%)  5-18   28%  +213.37    +18%   0
J Perriss (17%)	       4-6    67%    +6.80    +50%   0
M Geoghegan (8%)       4-8    50%    +4.00    +42%   1
Midgley & Hodges (24%) 3-3   100%    +6.00    +76%   0

FIXTURES
Monday 8 January 2024
Saturday 20 January 2024

Upcoming RACECOURSE TEMPLATES
Kempton AW (Wednesday 3 January 2024)
Wolverhampton AW (Friday 5 January 2024)
Saturday to be confirmed...

FAVOURITES: Taunton is a very good track for winning favourites albeit from a small sample. Over the past 5 years they show 153-353 for a big 43.34% and a level stake profit of +28.29 to SP. Winning favourites in non-handicaps show a strike rate of 54% whilst handicap winning favourites strike at 37%. If the national average of winning favourites stands at around 32% this means Taunton score around 11% above that, a figure that should be acknowledged into our betting!

TRAINERS: Harry Derham (24%) has made the most fantastic start to his training career. He is scoring at 24% and has 6 runners at the course tomorrow, including MOJO EGO 12.25, THUNDER N LIGHTNIN 1.00, HARD FROST 1.35, QUEENS GAMBLE 2.10, GAME WINNER 2.45 & NORDIC TIGER 3.55. He is almost certain to record at least 1 winner for fans of stop at a winner! David Maxwell, owner and jockey, spoke to us at Chepstow on Wednesday about how confident and brilliant a trainer he has found Derham to be. There is a waiting list to get a horse into his stable such is the high regard he is already held in. By the way, the trainer is 17-69 for 25% (+5.15) for since September. He is our angle into the meeting!

Paul Nicholls (24%) is easily top trainer at the track and scores +4% above his national average though his runners produce a loss of -25.82 to level stakes. He has 4 runners at this meeting including SWIFT HAWK 12.25, CENTARA 1.00, LARCHMONT LASS 2.10 & INDIVIDUALISTE 3.55. One can reasonably expect a winner! Beware Nicholls first time outers! Some of his runners are needing a run, some of them badly needing a run. His words not ours!

Just for clarification. Joe Tizzard (13%) has been credited with 12 winners at Taunton, but please note his figures and father Colin's have been amalgamated together over the last 5 years. Important to note that Joe shows just 1-42 for 2% at Taunton and a loss of -38.75 to level stakes so far in his career, a number that is hard to believe (but true). His stable is just 30-miles from the course and we wonder if he is QUIETLY schooling his horses there? Just 1 winner at Taunton since May 2022? By the way, there has been 20 months since May 2022 and Joe has trained at least 1 winner in every single month consecutively, suggesting he has horses ready to win at any given time. All a bit strange...

JOCKEYS: Only Rex Dingle (14%) from our leader board has rides at the course tomorrow, the rides include FUTURE TIMES 12.25, PERFECT NELSON 1.00 & KING OF THE LAKE 2.45.

OWNERS: Only Michael Geoghegan (32%) from our leader board has a runner in LARCHMONT LASS 2.10, though hard to see this one beating both the front 2 in the market.

RED FLAG: HARRY FRY became one of the youngest trainers in the country when he launched his career in October 2012 following five years as assistant to the multiple champion National Hunt trainer Paul Nicholls. Do members believe that Harry Fry (18%) has confirmed earlier promise as a trainer since leaving the Nicholls set-up and kicked on to a level he would be happy at? We are not so sure! The current season is showing 14-86 for 16% and a level stake loss of -49.26. At first glance he does not seem busy enough.

It might be unfair to compare his numbers against former pupils Dan Skelton and Harry Derham, so we look at Fry's numbers since 2019/20 instead and look for signs of improvement, context and relevance:

GB jumps, Season (April to April last 5 seasons
2023/24:   14-86    16%	 -49.26   £467,331
2022/23:   39-198   20%	 -48.60   £330,579
2021/22:   38-213   18%	 -57.02   £674,892
2020/21:   31-197   16%	 -47.52   £622,491
2019/20:   30-169   18%	 -27.50   £368,826

Last season he recorded 39 winners so a personal best, and he struck at 20% and another personal best, but Harry Derham has already recorded 17 winners in his first full season. Could it be that Fry's decision to operate on the same patch as his mentor Paul Nicholls (30 miles away) has not helped in the figures department or the placement regard? We are not sure, but if the trainer scored 30 winners in the 2019/20 season surely he would be expecting more than 9 winners more 3 seasons later? This year's 14 winners do not make for great reading either!

Trainer's will always talk about quality. His lowest prize money season in the last 5 seasons was 2022/23 and significantly so! Our conclusions suggest he will have a better second half of the season to the first half as 14 winners have the look of the paltry, just saying...

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