CHEPSTOW WINNERS (Sunday 12 October 2025)
October 11th, 2025
1.32: Champion Equestrian Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Chase (Class 4) 3m2f
Winning fav[...]
TRENDS, AGGREGATES & RECURRENCE FACTORS
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Wagering based solely on the racing trends is a misapplication, however, they do have a role in our preparation for the bigger races. But first, we are reminded of the words of Sir Arthur Conan Doyle who said: "Whilst the individual man is an insoluble puzzle, in the aggregate he becomes a mathematical certainty!"What has that to do with horse racing? In isolation, a single trend is of limited value, whereas an association or aggregation of pertinent trends becomes invaluable.The Racing Horse trends are not generally uniform, in fact they look somewhat irregular. But, each and every single line has passed the pertinence and relevance test! Not all lines carry the same weight, but each carries weight and a help or hinder ratio.Primarily, the significance and purpose of the trends is to help the filtration purpose by sifting contenders from the pretenders - not necessarily in finding the winner. The trends often lead to more than one prospective winner and sometimes many.Of course, and assuming the class element and jockey competence has been covered, the trainer form, optimum ground and perceived value has still to be factored into any bet. But, the trends do help in surgically removing four perennial saboteurs/silent killers from our betting slip - bias, random, hunch and hype!Not every professional sports bettor are fans of racing trends, largely because of the small sample sizes offered and we both accept and understand this argument. We also know trends can be contradictory and sometimes relate to old situations and format, one reason why we strike a line through most of them.Because of the above we urge members to check out our recurrence factors for each and every race of the Festival. This piece of information MUST make the member better informed and far more valuable than most pundits might say. |
Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose. |