It is always advantageous to have an overview of a subject and it is this visualisation we want to expand on in preparation for the 2024 Cheltenham Festival.

Visualisation is a formation of a mental image of something, acknowledging and recognising its orientation is of huge value. Elite athletes routinely use visualisation techniques as part of training and competition, and I believe professional sports bettors do something similar. These techniques are used to cultivate a disciplined mindset, mental awareness, confidence and a competitive edge.

 So, if emotional issues impede success in sports betting a mathematical rationale must assist, and why our betting is built upon an assemblage of numbers and structure, within the visualisation described. 

The Cheltenham Festival is totally UNIQUE and comes with its own personality, type and quality - a failure to understand this quintessential aspect negatively impact attempts to profit. The character of the Festival makes demands not applicable elsewhere and, if the reader believes (as we do), that mathematics is the governing force of horse racing betting they need to recognise, absorb, then act on our acuminated numbers.

Before looking at the numbers we know the best horses, trainers and jockey come to the fore at the 'toughest of any meeting' featuring national hunt horses! Races are seldom non-competitive, lacking in class or depth. Course and distance winners are always a positive and of primary consideration for a festival like this. Horses with Cheltenham form prove they can can handle/negotiate the undulations then master the Cheltenham Hill. Invariably horses will have to contend with a relentless pace where a single mistake signals the end of any perceived chance. Ability is not enough on its own, horses who have shown degrees of unwillingness should be avoided, they are not going to have the heart and stamina to see out the race.

• FACT: There will be a fairy story or two again this year

• BUT: Of the 27 bona fide races 16 or more of them will be won by the BIG 5. A worst case scenario figure has been set at 14 winners whilst a top end estimate could be 19. These numbers are concrete and irrelevant of media noise

• WHO ARE THE BIG 5: In seed order they are Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Henry De Bromhead, Nicky Henderson & Paul Nicholls!

Some might argue this information is blinking obvious - but is it? Where does it say this in the Racing Post or At The Races? Yes, punters are marginally aware of the Big Five influence prior to the festival, but largely oblivious of dialectic evidence and besides, any initial awareness dissipates quickly once the commotion and brouhaha starts, it always does...

Looking ahead to the 2024 Festival the majority will mistakenly view each race as a totally random entity with little to no commonality. Furthermore, they will readily employ personal bias, hype and the last thing they heard into their thought processes before wagering. They will mistakenly believe seasoned and very good trainers like Venetia Williams, Gary Moore and Kim Bailey et al will have equal opportunities, and the same right to win individual races as per the Big 5, they do not, they will not!

As we go to post (Wednesday 6 March) there is a cloud over the Nicky Henderson stable. We can report our horse Pentland Hills was pulled up at Kelso on Saturday and a post-race scope revealed he is suffering from an infection and is now on antibiotics. He is stabled next door to Constitution Hill, who is also unwell and already withdrawn from the Festival. Pentland Hills' pre-race tests were all fine and we believe this applied to Constitution Hill as well.

Since January the trainer is just 6-43 for 14% measured against a national average of 22% showing a huge -8% at a time one would expect his horses to have peaked. It does not augur well at this moment for the trainer with the Festival just a week away. Will this affect our forecast, yes, one could reasonably expect a couple of winners from him...

2024 Prestbury Cup 

The Irish look to have one of their strongest teams ever and the feeling is Willie Mullins will have as many winners as all of the UK Trainers. Even the Ultima Handicap (Tuesday), usually a safe bet for a British trainer, sees the two market leaders being Irish raiders. A score of Ireland 6 UK 1 after the first day looks a real possibility! TRH believes the Irish could win 20 of the 28 races with 18 being a bare minimum, such is the differential between the two camps!

2024 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (Home Page)