ROCHEVAL 2.35 Carlisle at 4/5

Carlisle Junior "National Hunt" Hurdle (Class 4) 2m1f

Pedigree

€65,000 2yo; fourth foal; dam French/Swiss 2m3f-2m6f hurdle/chase winner, half-sister to useful 2m hurdler County Zen out of French 1m6f/2m1f hurdle winner

Trainer Form: 7-29 for 24%          (10)
National average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 6%               (9)
RPR: 110                            (10)
Optimum Ground: Soft                (10)      
Optimum Distance: 2m+               (10)
Jockey: Patrick Wadge               (10)
National Average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 9%              (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 20%         (10)
Total:                              (99)

Impressive on both runs

Rocheval is a son of Kapgarde who cost 65,000euros as a 2yo and then made a promising winning start to his career winning an 8-runner Aintree bumper on debut in November. He drew clear for hand riding and enjoyed the soft winter ground. Next up, he saw off the same stablemate in decisive fashion on hurdles debut at Ayr over 2m on soft ground the following month. He looks the type to go on improving for a good while yet on that evidence and he looks very hard to beat with a kind trip.

Returning to the hurdles win, Rocheval might not have beaten much, but we really liked the way he relaxed through the race and the way this 4yo jumped his hurdles, looking a natural for this game. Then, at the end of the race he hit the line strongly. He looks to have a bright future.

Trainer & Jockey Form

Lucinda Russell has her horses flying at the moment, the last 14 days show her 7-29 for 24% and +11% above her national average. She does have poor figures at Carlisle which is hard to understand scoring at just 6% but she obviously thinks this course will suit Rocheval. Patrick Wadge takes off 3lbs and he is in great form also winning on 6 of his last 9 rides. The combination between trainer and jockey is particularly good showing 51-261 for a big 20%.

Contenders

Hill Spirit showed fair form when making the frame in trio of bumpers and similar form when successful in junior hurdle at Ludlow over 2m in January. He jumped sketchily and couldn't match that level when 4th of 5 under a penalty at Chepstow next time but it is far too soon to be writing him off and he looks the main danger ahead of Kabuki.

Timeform View 

 ROCHEVAL maintained his 100% record with an authoritative hurdles debut victory at Ayr in December, and with further progress expected he can make it 3-3. Hill Spirit may emerge as the chief threat if dispelling his Chepstow run.

Perceived Value

The 4/5 looks north of perceived value. We have been waiting for this horse to come out again after being massively impressed with his slick jumping of a hurdle for a 4yo. Looks like he will go on to much better things but not Cheltenham now given this race is so close to it and there is no recovery time.

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