EDGE + PERCEIVED VALUE = PROFIT
Proven mathematical laws are the governing force of horse racing betting. Consequently every bet TRH places is conceived then predicated from statistical analysis protected by a math-based edge with perceived value attached. Our formula is simple because we are yet to be convinced that a complication of a system is proportional to profit.
So what do we mean by a math-based edge? It means finding something with a solid mathematical core, something historically profitable and something that is unlikely to change or suffer fatigue going forward. Then, if we can filter negative influences from the original proposal and provide a sound rationale for doing so, we can claim that betting edge.
The absolute key to success in betting is the ability to identify value bet situations where the odds available are greater than the true chance of winning and then to have the discipline to methodically bet only when these situations arise. If this is done the laws of mathematics and probability dictate that in the long term, you will make a profit.
Sports betting is a complex endeavour that requires one to adhere to certain principles, but it is not rocket science, so our advice is always to embrace and work with numbers and dismiss punditry! One should always be prepared to adapt to a changing world but the common denominators of sports betting never change.
Within the above we must beware saboteurs that hang around on every corner! Some of these try to be helpful, but they are saboteurs nonetheless. So who and what are we talking about?
As in most things in life the biggest problems in betting is misinformation, randomness and bias. One has to be a special type not to absorb at least some of the flotsam and jetsam spewed, these information streams care nothing for the receiver. Our advice is not to accept the conclusions of pundits, better to make your own mistake than those of others. In particular, most of those on our television screens purporting to help are promoting themselves. Posture and image are more important to them than relevance because they are not financially committed to the bet, they are best described as fluffers! Interesting to note they never mention a profit or loss account, or use the word ledger. The mute button is there for a purpose!
Just one example from many. Brian Gleeson has made real money from racing including media, event promotions and auctioneering, but when it comes to betting he is an ass! He continues to make lots of comments about the professional bettors and those "in the know" being in the betting ring when working for ITV Racing!
I worked/wrote for Betfair for over 5 years and received valuable ledger insight and can assure him those he refers to are NOT at the races, and have not been so post Betfair! Generally speaking, they are in their office or home relaxed, with their phone charged, spreadsheet at the ready, their betting exchange and bookmakers accounts open, seeking the elusive and necessary perceived value. Some of them may have a direct link to the paddock, but they are not standing in the rain or jostling with a crowd trying to get on in a betting ring.
Some successful sport bettors worked out the way to win by themselves the hard way, but some found a mentor to show them the ropes. Our advice is to read, look and listen at how successful bettors work and try to understand their pathways and modus operandi. From there you can absorb, tweak and then find your own pathway.
A lifetimes betting experience (57 years) has proven randomness, guesswork and laziness are the way to the poor house, whilst consuming alcohol during the processes will get you there much quicker! Our advice is always the same, work hard and use a strategy or system where you already have defined criteria to work from. Only place the wager in a calm professional moment and only after the filters and preparations have been fully applied.
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