CELEBORN 7.15 Doncaster at 6/5

 British Stallion Studs EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 2) 7f6y

Pedigree: First foal; dam Listed-placed 5f 2yo winner (RPR 93), half-sister to Listed-placed 6f 2yo winner Clochette, out of 6f winning sister to Group-placed 7f 2yo winner Chessman

Trainer Form: 8-37 for 22%          (10)
National Average: 17%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%             (10)
RPR: 87                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)     
Optimum Distance: 7f+               (10)
Jockey: Billy Loughnane             (10)
National Average: 14%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 15%             (10)          
Trainer & Jockey combo: 19%         (10)
Total:                             (100)

 Certain to step forward

Celeborn overcame inexperience to justify short-priced favouritism at 5/4 on his 7f Leicester racecourse debut 35 days ago, proving the regard he is held in. He was nicely on top at the finish but the run must be upgraded further. The colt overcame a ton of inexperience and greenness throughout the race, but especially towards the end. There is surely much more to come. He is speedily bred on the dam's side, but seems to have inherited some stamina from his sire and this performance can be marked up.

Trainer George Boughey has been in fine form since May and is clearly climbing the ranks at a rate of knots:

July 2024:    9-50    18%    -11.55
June 2024:   24-96    25%    +11.90
May 2024:    11-49    22%    -11.40

The trainer has 3 runners today at 3 different courses but Billy Loughnane comes to Doncaster. He has been in great form also and he has 6 rides at Doncaster tonight including JENNIFER WREN 6.15, ARTHUR ROSE 6.45, CELEBORN 7.15, RAJINDRI 7.46, EHTIRAM 8.15 & HAVANA SKY 8.45. A win double beckons!

Timeform Comments

 The market strength behind CELEBORN on debut suggests he's well regarded by the George Boughey team and he can leave that bare form behind and make it 2-2. The chief threat may come from newcomers, with Solarize and Square d'Alboni looking the part on breeding.

Perceived Value

The 6/5 looks perceived value, obviously we have no way of knowing how good the 2yo gelding Square D'Alboni for Ralph Beckett is. The market will tell us a little more about the chances of that one!

Celeborn traded at a high of 6.00 and Betfair SP of 2.31 when winning last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field.

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PACAFI RESULTS (2018 – 2024)