CHEPSTOW Racecourse Template (Friday 26 July 2024)

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The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Thursday 18 July 2024. There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps, a Classified Stakes and a Maiden Race. The going is expected to be good to firm, good in places.

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE WHAT'S ON

CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo	17-47	36%   -9.36    5-15	33%    +0.75
3yo	25-47	53%   -3.31    43-96	45%   +18.01
4yo+	2-7	29%   +2.00    65-199	33%    +2.46
TOTAL	44-101	44%  -10.67    113-310	36%   +21.21

CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (current year)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo	1-4	25%   -1.38    0-0      00%    +0.00
3yo	2-4	50%   -0.72    6-12	50%    +1.47
4yo+	0-0	00%   +0.00    9-28	32%    -4.13
TOTAL   3-8	38%   -2.10    15-40	38%    -2.66

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years      +/- 
John O'Shea (8%)    18-142   13%   -28.12    +5%
Chris Mason (15%)   16-87    18%    -3.66    +3%
David Evans (11%)   16-105   15%   +10.75    +4%
Archie Watson (14%) 15-61    25%   +24.86    +9% 
Rod Millman (12%)   14-100   14%   -11.50    +2% 
  
Ralph Beckett (18%) 13-41    32%    +7.58   +14%  
  
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years       +/-   R
Hollie Doyle (15%)   23-93   25%    +8.29   +10%   0
Gina Mangan (10%)    17-112  15%   -32.64    +5%   6
Rossa Ryan (16%)     13-79   16%   -30.10    +0%   0
William Cox (5%)     13-113  12%   +18.95    +7%   0
David Probert (12%)  13-128  10%   -79.61    -2%   0

TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years        +/-   E 
Cross Racing Club (10%)	7-44   16%   -6.62   +6%   1
Tidball & Millman (16%)	5-13   38%  +10.00  +22%   0
P & A de Weck (8%)      5-42   12%  -19.33   +4%   0
James & Llewellyn (15%)	4-12   33%   +6.62  +18%   0
S R Whistance (15%)     4-13   31%  +31.50  +16%   0
   
Upcoming Chepstow Fixtures:		 		
Thursday 8 August 2024
Thursday 15 August 2024

CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Left handed, undulating. Oval-shaped track, about two miles in extent, with a run-in of 5 furlongs. All races at up to a mile are run on the straight course. While not an out-and-out galloping course, owing to the pronounced undulations, the track puts the emphasis on stamina almost regardless of ground.

FAVOURITES: It's official, Chepstow is a punter-friendly racecourse and we have the receipts. Over the past 5  years winning favourites at the course show 157-411 for 38.20% so +5% above the national average. Note, all 3 categories (age-groups) of winning favourites in handicaps produce a profit to level stakes and score well above the national average of 29%, something very unusual in a Racecourse Template! Best category for winning strike rate are 3yo winning favourites in non-handicaps who show 25-47 for 53% (-3.31). 

TRAINERS: Top trainer at the course is Tony Carroll (10%) has 3 runners including LOCAL BAY 7.20, HEADSHOT 7.55 & HAWAJES 7.55.

Rod Millman (12%) horses look out of form currently or at least gone off the boil and the recent numbers back the fact up. He is 1-25 for just 4% over the past 14 days and 0-23 within those figures. He runs the 6yo mare FOUR ADAAY 6.50 to be ridden by Danny Muscutt, and despite the form of the trainer she remains on a good mark and could surprise

JOCKEYS: Of the top 6 jockeys at the course only Gina Mangan (10%) is involved, she has 6 rides including DESTINY'S SPIRIT 5.40, JAX EDGE 6.50, MACS DILEMMA 7.20, KENSTONE 7.55, MY CLEMENTINE 8.25 & JENSON BENSON 8.55. She was our Red Flag at the last meeting and she duly obliged at 13/2, bigger prices were available! She is in great form currently and in the last month or so shows 4-19 for 1% (+6.00)

Millie Wonnacott (5%) won at Chepstow at the last meeting and she now stands at 4-82 for 5% (-49.50). Do not be deceived by her low strike rate/national average on the Flat, she is so much better than that. Her NH figures show 14-63 for 22% (+32.14) and we were impressed with her demeanour and comments after the win when talking to Matt Chapman. She has 3 rides and a real chance of another winner from LETTER OF THE LAW 5.40, MOKAATIL 6.50 & FACT OR FABLE 7.55.

OWNERS: Cross Racing Club (10%) have a single entry in ROMANOVICH 7.55 trained by John O'Shea and ridden by William Carson who is in the doldrums with 0-26 over 22 days.

RED FLAG: LUKE MORRIS (9%) has ridden 47 winners at Chepstow so now approaching 50 not out. He combines 396-2141 for 18% when riding for Sir Mark Prescott and he has 2 rides for him at Chepstow from his 7 rides and also a 2yo for Ollie Sangster that catches the eye: BANTRY 5.40. BOB MALI 6.15 (O Sangster), RHUBARB 6.50, JAZZ SCENE 7.20 (M Prescott), HEADSHOT 7.55, OVERTURUE 8.25 (M Prescott) & TIMELY ESCAPE 8.55. He looks the jockey to follow for this meeting but yet again with Gina Mangan and possibly Millie Wonnacott!

The Racing Horse and Dave and Andrew of The Winning Angle, met Luke Morris at the last Chepstow meeting when he scored a fabulous win double!

PERTINENCE & PERTAINING

5.40 (Winning favourites 33%)
BELIEVE YOU ME (H Main) C&D winner last time out, now 2-3 at the course and capable of following up, Jack Doughty (5) rides
DYNAMITE KATIE (G Harris) beaten favourite last time out, Kieran O'Neill rides
LETTER OF THE LAW (J O'Shea) forget Wednesday run, ridden by inexperienced jockey (career 0-2), scored here 2 weeks ago, Millie Wonnacott (5) rides 

6.15 (Winning favourites 36%)
CUBAN STAR (J Jones) 3-9 first time up 2yo winners past 2 years, Dylan Hogan rides. In context and initially speaking 11/1 (Bet365) looks a big price...
SILCA BAY (E Johnson-Houghton) showed plenty first time out and may take a significant step forward under trainer astute with 2yos, George Downing rides and currently 0-30
FAR ABOVE THE LAW (A Haynes) most experienced and top rated. Trainer +£12.33 with favourites and £34.33 with horses stepped up in trip. Kieran O'Neill rides

6.50 (Winning favourites 33%)
MOKAATIL (I Williams) weighted to win 85 > 55, well on top at finish under this rider over C&D last week and same mark, boasts obvious claims of following up. Millie Wonnacott (5) rides
JAX EDGE (C Mason) C&D winner now 2-4 at the course, Gina Mangan (3) rides

7.20
JAZZ SCENE (M Prescott) beaten favourite last time out, Hamilton win boosted by runner-up since, latest run probably too soon, Luke Morris rides
MACS DILEMMA (J O'Shea) 4 course wins though prefers 7f, weighted to win 74 > 71, trainer won 2 of the last 10 runnings. Gina Mangan (3) rides

7.55 (Winning favourites 33%)
FACT OR FABLE (J Moore) in reasonable form, including good second in similar race at Ffos Las last month. Millie Wonnacott (5) rides
KENSTONE (A Wintle) C&D winner, 0-14 for 2023 but good 3 of 9 over C&D 48 days ago, Gina Mangan (3) rides
HAWAJES (T Carroll) Southwell winner in February. Good 2 of 9 in Leicester Classified 8 days ago, now significantly back up in trip. Jack Doughty (5) rides

8.25 (Winning favourites 45%)
MONKEY MISS (D & C Kubler) trainer 12-37 for 32% past 30 days, trainer +£30.19 when one runner at a meeting. William Carson rides and currenly 0-26
MY CLEMENTINE (A Wintle) C&D winner last time out, likely to remain competitive if cheek pieces work again. Gina Mangan (3) rides

8.55
MAMDOH (O Burrows) trainer 22% with horses 10f+ and 22% in mid-season, better than shown so far. Danny Muscutt rides
BOBACIOUS (G Nicholls) beaten favourite last time out over C&D, future mark 5lb higher, Joshua Bryan rides
DAPPLED LIGHT (A Wintle) weighted to win 56 > 52, stepping up in trip. Jack Doughty (5) rides

 Chepstow takes a fair bit of getting. Because it’s so up hill and down dale, stamina has to come into play and it’s also worth noting that the straight is quite long, meaning that some horses start to race a lot earlier than is ideal. If you’re on one that wants to make the running, for example, you’ll often get a few keen to take you on earlier than you might like, so patience is vital for a jockey. Long-striding horses can often go well on the straight track but, as it’s quite stiff, they definitely need to get home - Jason Weaver

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE TEMPLATES - FREE of CHARGE!

CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE TEMPLATES (16 June 2024 to 18 July 2024

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