BAY CITY ROLLER 2.10 Chelmsford at 4/5

 IRE-Incentive, It Pays To Buy Irish Novice Stakes (Class 4) 7f

Pedigree: €320,000 Y; third foal; half-brother to 1m-1m2f winner Botanical (RPR 119); dam 1m2f-1m6f winner (inc Listed; 104), closely related to 7f Group 3 winner Primo Luce, out of unraced half-sister to high-class sprinter and broodmare Cassandra Go

Trainer Form: 6-24 for 25%          (10)
National Average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 14%             (10)
RPR: 93                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Good/Standard       (10)     
Optimum Distance: 7f                (10)
Jockey: Callum Shepherd             (10)
National Average: 11%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 14%             (10)          
Trainer & Jockey combo: 15%         (10)
Total:                             (100)

Landed a huge gamble on debut!

Bay City Roller is a well-bred colt and a €320,000 yearling. He landed a huge gamble on his winning debut at Sandown over 7f on fast ground, being backed from prices bigger than 20/1 down to 9/4 favourite. The Racing Post reports the form of the race has not worked out, but the next horses home were trained by J & T Gosden, Charlie Appleby, Harr Charlton, Ralph Beckett, Roger Varian, Charlie Hills, Andrew Balding and Richard Hannon respectively. True, none of the horses have won since, but we are talking about untapped 2yos, some of which are beautifully bred and started favourites in races at Newmarket and Newbury, so held in some regard.

A Class 4 Novice at Newmarket cannot have the same equivalence as a Class 4 Novice at Chelmsford...

The Pacafi holds several big entries in the autumn including 2 Group 2s and a Group 1. The sire is 10-40 (25%) here in last five seasons giving us ticks in every box and the colt has drawn stall 1 to help Callum Shepherd find the rail.

Trainer and Jockey Form

George Scott (13%) has his horses in fine form scoring 6-24 for 25% over the past 14 days. At Chelmsford he shows 11-79 for 14% (-1.64) over the past 5 years. He looks to have a good batch of 2yos this year showing 15-72 for 21% so +8% above his national average. His combination with jockey Callum Shepherd this year scores 15-81 for 19% (+42.11) and over the past 5 years show 34-229 for 15% (+42.21).

Victorious Racing (26%) are building a head of steam and we have backed a few of their winners this year.

2024	13	48	27%	 £737,690	+43.15
2023	11	44	25%	 £548,215	 +8.87
2022	1	 5	20%	  £59,273	 -3.00
Total   25      97      26%    £1,345,177       +49.01

George Scott has trained most of them at this stage and at a 27% strike rate

George Scott	        8   30	 27%	£347,273    +29.88
Sir Mark Prescott 	5   11	 45%	£98,321	    +27.25
Simon & Ed Crisford	5   12	 42%	£63,566	     +1.41
Archie Watson	        3    9	 33%	£745,739    +11.91
Andrew Balding	        2   14	 14%	£61,489	     -4.25
Roger Varian	        2   15	 13%	£23,779	    -11.18

Contenders

The biggest danger may come from one of the newcomers who will be receiving 7lbs. Rock D'Oro has an attractive pedigree and the stable is 8-20 (40%) with 2yo newcomers this year, or Via Con Me, a No Nay Never $155,000 yearling and we fully expect them to be heavily supported but for each-way purposes.

Timeform Comments

A few newcomers offer potential but BAY CITY ROLLER looked a good prospect when making a winning debut at Sandown and can defy a 7 lb penalty. Rock d'Oro (second choice), Via Con Me and Mekhled all appeal on paper so could emerge as the main dangers to George Scott's New Bay colt.

Perceived Value

The 4/5 looks north of perceived value given the manner and rating of his debut win and the form and combination of the trainer and jockey. Has a good draw also, so one of the newcomers will have to post a RPR of 90+ to beat him. If there is an unknown or a hindrance, it could be the pace angle, who is going to make the pace and there are 5 unraced 2yos who might scrimmage. Callum Shepherd knows and rides the course well scoring 51-359 for 14% (+65.40).

Bay City Roller traded at a high of 6.80 and Betfair SP of 3.78 when winning last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field and travelled strongly early on.

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PACAFI RESULTS (2018 – 2024)