The Racing Horse is once again supporting the 2014 Coral Welsh Grand National for the third successive year, which is the biggest race of the Welsh racing calendar. It has become a wonderful social occasion and a highlight of the festive season for the South Wales area. This marathon Grade 3 chase is worth a mammoth £100,000 in prize money. The race is nearly always raced on testing ground over 3m 5f (5,934 metres) and 22 fences meaning stamina is of the essence and consequently it always attracts some of the best jump horses in training.

Like all big handicaps the race is not a betting proposition but there are a few clues to the race for those who must bet or fancy a flutter. For example, the last 10 winners have been aged six, seven or eight years old. The last time a horse older than nine won the race was in 1993 when Riverside Boy won! This would be of little consequence if veterans had only a small representation, but 25% of the runners in the last decade have been 10yo or older. There cannot be any question – the majority of older horses run poorly! Here are some tables worth viewing before betting:

Previous winners showing their age and their allotted weight...
2013 Mountainous 8-10-0
2012 Monbeg Dude 8-10-1
2011 Le Beau Bai 8-10-1
2010 Synchronised 8-11-6
2009 Dream Alliance 8-10-8
2008 Notre Pere 7-11-0
2007 Miko De Beauchene 7-10-5
2006 Halcon Generladais 6-11-3
2005 L’Aventure 6-10-4
2004 Silver Birch 7-10-5

Last 10 year trends in age definition
Under 7yo = 2 wins from 22 runners for 20%
Aged 7yo = 3 wins from 28 runners for 30%
Aged 8yo = 5 wins from 49 runners for 50%

Finally, here is a list of runners remaining that fit our winning age-group template commensurate with weight allocation. The Racing Horse notes that the average SP of the winner has been close to 10/1 carrying close to 10st 8lbs. If we take that great horse and Gold Cup winner Synchronised out of the equation he would reduce the weight average winner considerably again:

Amigo at 14/1 (10st 8lbs)
Woodford County at 25/1 (10st 6lbs)
Emperors Choice at 25/1 (10st 8lbs)
Handy Andy at 40/1 (10st 5lbs)

The Racing Horse will post a review of the race on Sunday...