COOL SPHERE 5.30 Lingfield at 4/6

Visit attheraces.com Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 5f6y

Pedigree: $45,000 Y, 120,000gns 2yo; first foal; dam Canadian 5f AW/US 6.5f dirt winner, half-sister to US 1m turf 2yo/8.5f AW stakes winner Firespike out of 6.5f dirt winning half-sister to Canadian champion/Queens Plate winner Basqueian

Trainer Form: 2-3 for 67%    (10)
PR 7 RPR: 81 & 92            (10)                                     
Optimum Ground: Standard     (10)
Optimum Distance: 5f         (10)
Jockey: David Probert        (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (50)

Main danger: Lady Tati 7/2

RACE TYPE: 2yo winning favourites in non-handicaps:
50-140 for 36% (-31.30)

Defies explanation!

Cool Sphere has been placed in three of five starts. Beaten 8l behind Liberty Beach at 50/1 when 11th of 13 on his latest outing in the Group 3 Markel Insurance Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood over 5f  on good ground last month. Today the Orb (USA) colt drops 5 grades and runs in a Class 5 Novice on a surface he is bred for. Only trainer Robert Cowell knows why he has raced him 5 times since May on turf before giving the colt winning confidence on the AW. One of those runs was at Ascot on soft which defies any explanation if one considers the colt going forward! The colt has speed to burn and easily sets a high standard for this type of race and this test will suit. 

Of his rivals

Blue Venture is hard to recommend so a newcomer will likely prove a bigger threat. Of those, Lady Tati cost 100,000gns though Lady Phyllis is the more speedily-bred and both are preferred to Merchants Breath and the selection’s stablemate Momentum Swing. If Cowell thought the latter would beat Cool Sphere it would not go down well with the owners who have witnessed the poor placement to date!

Timeform 

COOL SPHERE should arguably have won a race by now given the level of his ability, but he's twice been tried in pattern company, and this looks an excellent opportunity for him back in calmer waters. Lady Tati cost plenty as a yearling and is an interesting newcomer, so she will command respect if the market speaks in her favour.

Value

Clearly the colt was deemed good enough to run in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot and then a Group 3 at Goodwood, today a Class 5 Novice at Lingfield against a stablemate and a couple of unraced fillies. The colt must win this and 4/6 must be value and we imagine Cool Sphere starting at 4/9 if he has a good paddock. It is disconcerting that the trainer runs two in the race but note Momentum Swing (owned and bred by Rober Ng) was a very late foal at 24 May and has already been gelded, we suspect that one has not come to hand yet.

52 of DARK ANGEL (IRE)'s progeny have won on flat debut and we do not want MOMENTUM SWING to be 53. As we go to post the gelding is trading at 7/2 and one would naturally hope for drift come post time, though looks to only have Lady Tati to beat for second place...

***