Pacafi (25 July 2019)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

WALK IN MARRAKESH 2.15 Sandown at 2/1

British Stallion Studs EBF Star Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo) 7f

Pedigree: Fourth foal; half-sister to French 1m2f winner Find It Within; dam placed 5.5f/6f at 2yrs in France (RPR 82), half-sister to 5.5f Group 2 winner Zipping and 5f Group 3 winners Zelding and Nipping out of 6.5f winner

Trainer Form: 25-108 for 23% (10)
RPR: 98                       (9)                                     
Optimum Ground: Good         (10)
Optimum Distance: 7f         (10)
Jockey: Frankie Dettori      (10)

The Racing Horse Composite:  (49)

Main danger: Light Blush 5/2

Race Type for 2yo favourites in non-handicaps: 
35-85 for 41% (-2.92)

Dettori from the front?

Walk In Marrakesh (Foaled 17 April) has been successful twice at 7f on good ground. Won on her latest outing when the 4/6 favourite earlier this month at Ayr when very impressive carrying a penalty beating Alix James by 5l. The form suggests that she will be hard to beat today despite the step up in grade. She has also won at Beverley this season and went close on debut over 6f finishing second. Both of her wins in Novice races at around 7f on fast ground has come when leading or having an uncontested lead and in Frankie Dettori there is nobody better at controlling pace.

Trainer form

Looking at trainer form Johnston is in tremendous form at the moment and July is currently showing 40 winners from 165 runners for 24%. At Ascot he has trained 135 winners from 1143 runners for 12%. Frankie Dettori is in the saddle tomorrow and his combination record shows 50-261 for 19% though the strike rate is better recently with 2-7 for 29% in 2018 and currently this year is 3-12 for 25%.

Of her rivals

Four of these made winning debuts though Ursulina came up well short in Listed company at Newmarket last time though she sets the standard based upon her second-place finish to the exciting Summer Romance in the Empress Stakes at Newmarket last month. Rhea made a winning start at Haydock in May with a subsequent winner back in third but that was over two months ago. That looks stronger form than West End Girl’s success at the same track and Kevin Ryan’s filly has a Group 2 entry later in the year.

Light Blush scored at Newmarket on her recent introduction but the fourth has already been beaten but still rates the biggest danger. Charlie Appleby originally told us that Light Blush would be better with time and was likely to next be seen at the end of August, so the fact she is out quickly is surely a sign she's taken the race really well. She is the one to beat.

Timeform

WALK IN MARRAKESH can make her mark at this level based on the way she defied a penalty at Ayr last time and gets the nod under Frankie Dettori. Light Blush made a bright start to her career at Newmarket's July meeting and may provide the main threat ahead of Tom Dascombe's Ursulina.

Value

Our selection has to step up in grade and against other winners but the Pacafi holds a Group 2 entry confirming the regard she is held. Not sure of value on this occasion but we would not have taken less than 7/4. The Frankie Dettori from the front factor helped the decision/nominaton.

We are worried about the Godolphin filly who cost 435,000gns as a yearling. She justified favouritism in a traditionally useful maiden at Newmarket over 7f on good to firm ground. She took a while to respond for pressure but getting on top well inside the final 1f and pricking her ears in front. We are reminded the previous four runnings of that race were won by subsequent Group scorers so we respect this filly and she could even start favourite or joint favourite...

***

COMING UP

KING GEORGE VI and QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES

RACECOURSE TEMPLATE for ASCOT (27 July 2019)

***

     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

15 Walk In Marrakesh 3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.75  +5.02  S/R  67%
14 Skeaping          1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +3.27  S/R  64%
13 Burn Some Dust    2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +2.44  S/R  62%
12 Byline            2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +1.07  S/R  58%
11 New Arrangement   1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.04  S/R  55%
10 Mon Frere         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.44  S/R  50%
 9 Fleeting Prince   2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +0.56  S/R  56%
 8 Faylaq (S)        2.50  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -0.81  S/R  50%
 7 Spartan Fighter   1.50  WIN  1.00  +0.50  +0.44  S/R  57%
 6 Masar             2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.06  S/R  50%
 5 Incredulous       2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +0.94  S/R  60%
 4 Vivionn           2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.56  S/R  50%
 3 Mighty Spirit     1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.44  S/R  67%
 2 Buhturi           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +1.44  S/R 100%
 1 Last Empire       1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

July SELECTIONS: 15  WIN: 10  LOSE: 5  S/R: 67%   PROFIT: +5.02pts

(112L1L121411111) FINISHED First or Second (80.00%)

(SSSSDSSSSSSSSDSS) SHORTENS in price (86.67%)

25 Vasiliev          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +0.33  S/R 56%
24 Chef De Troupe    1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.77  S/R 54%
23 Anthony Van Dyck  2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.39  S/R 52%
22 Faylaq            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.39  S/R 55% 
21 Walk In Marrakesh 1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.92  S/R 52%
20 Mutamaasik        1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  -1.54  S/R 50%
19 Saqqara King      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -2.45  S/R 47%
18 Kodiac Pride      2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R 44%
17 Stradivarius (S)  2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.25  S/R 47%
16 Faylaq            2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  -3.25  S/R 44%
15 Magical (S)       2.87  LOSE 1.25  +0.13  -4.50  S/R 40% 
14 Too Darn Hot (S)  3.50  LOSE 1.50  -1.50  -4.63  S/R 43%
13 Battaash          3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.13  S/R 46%
12 Mekong            2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.13  S/R 50%
11 Dream Kart        1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.13  S.R 55%
10 Tempus            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.13  S/R 60%
 9 Tapiserrie 2xR4   2.25  WIN  1.00  +0.69  -0.66  S/R 56%
 8 Far Above         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.35  S/R 50%
 7 Neon Sea R4       2.20  WIN  1.00  +1.08  -2.07  S/R 43%
 6 Nahham (S)        2.75  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -3.15  S/R 33%
 5 Theban'kingrebel  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.93  S/R 40% 
 4 Quiet Place       2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.65  S/R 25%
 3 Ricochet (S)      2.37  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -1.65  S/R 33%
 2 Separate          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -0.40  S/R 50% 
 1 Sir Dragonet (S)  4.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  -1.20  S/R  0%

June SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +0.33pts

(51421411113L2321131111211)      FINISHED First or Second (72.00%)

25 Mind The Crack    1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +3.04  S/R  56% 
24 Izvestia R4(S)    3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.65  +2.32  S/R  54%
23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +3.04pts

(1212L122F4121211311211111)      FINISHED First or Second (84.00%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%) 

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