BURN SOME DUST 5.15 Ayr at 5/4

Western House Hotel Apprentice Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+ 0-75) 2m1f105y

Pedigree: Third foal; half-brother to 1m-1m6f winner Nordic Combined (inc at 2; RPR 86); dam 1m4f-1m6f winner (97), half-sister to 7f-1m2f winner Make Amends and 1m4f & 2m1f Flat/smart bumper winner Endless Intrigue out of 1m2f winner

Trainer Form: 2-7 for 28%    (10)
OR: 69                       (10)*                                     
Optimum Ground: Good to soft (10)
Optimum Distance: 2m         (10)
Jockey: Kieran Scholfield     (8)*

The Racing Horse Composite:  (48)*

Main danger: Tawseef 7/4

Sharper today and may have optimum conditions

Triple winner Burn Some Dust will be sharper for last month’s comeback at York and has won over 1m6f in the past and if the rain promised hits the track we may have optimum conditions for our Pacafi. Our selection came from the rear to claim third on his York comeback, and the rise from 1m4f can help him resume last year's progression especially given the fact the trainer is beginning to find form with his charges!

Burn Some Dust has the highest official rating and the least exposed and has yet to have raced in optimum conditions and if we get a little more rain today he could have it...

Introducing Kieran Schofield

He is the least exposed over this particularly long distance but will need a pilot who can ride an appropriate race. We know very little of Kieran Schofield but with the exception of Ella McCain we know even less of the other three jockeys. It is worth looking at the winning record of each of the apprentice jockeys:

Kieran Schofield: 18 career wins 6 this year
Ella McCain:      11 career wins 3 this year
Cian MacRedmond:   6 career wins 6 this year
Izzy Clifton:      5 career wins 5 this year
Corey Madden:      4 career wins 3 this year

The above information only tells us so much but the information clearly tells us we have the most experienced jockey who has easily ridden the most winners and that counts for plenty. There is a warning for our jockey and it is obvious, he must NOT race out of the back. Ella McCain has won three times on main danger Tawseef and all their wins have come in identical fashion - making all and running their rivals into submission. Although well into the veteran stage, he remains very sprightly for his age, and when there is cut in the ground and he gets an uncontested lead he is very dangerous.

This was already a borderline selection given we are betting in a Class 5 Handicap and we could not have advised the Pacafi had Schofield not appeared to be the premier jockey in the race.

Trainer form

In the past week we had opposed Brian Ellison because of a long losing run but he has found form with his horses and 2 of them have won from his last 7 runners. Donald McCain has his NH horses running well but we look at some recent flat figures:

Brian Ellison:     2 wins from  7 for 28%
Donald McCain:     1 win  from 37 for  3% (since Sep 2018)
Martin Todhunter:  1 win  from 12 for  9% (since Sep 2018)
Iain Jardine:      3 wins from 63 for  5% (June and July)
Jim Goldie:        3 wins from 81 for  4% (June and July)

The numbers give us just a little more perspective.

Of his rivals

Tawseef (82 runs) arrives in the best form having won over 1m6f at Nottingham. The winning hurdler has scored over 2m1f on the Flat before and Donald McCain’s charge looks competitive and the main danger though he is now an 11yo and an age group where they do not always put it in. Question Of Faith scored over track and trip at this time last year and is back on a winning mark whilst Hugoigo finished ahead of Golden Jeffrey when placed over 1m7f here last month though has failed to figure since.

Timeform

BURN SOME DUST seems sure to be suited by this sort of trip and makes plenty of appeal after his fine reappearance run in a big-field York handicap. C&D winner Question of Faith is back on a good mark and could be the danger from off the pace if getting things run to suit.

Value

We considered the 11/8 and missed it but on reflection convinced the 5/4 is still on the right side of value. Looks a 10/11 shot to us with a good ride and will be disappointed if this one drifts with the trainer just returning to form with his horse after a 0-40 losing streak. The jockey does not have the numbers/strike rate we like but that is factored into the price.

We appreciate this race  could be tactical but imagine the four jockeys opposing Tawseef will know about Ella McCain's plan A and hopefully she will be bothered on the front end. We watched the Pacafi, who has been sparingly raced, when he was up in trip at Nottingham over 1m6f and he finished strongly at the finish suggesting he will stay the 2m but we hope last night's rain got into the ground and some more is due today. We do not want good ground.

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COMING UP

KING GEORGE VI and QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES

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     The Racing Horse will update the results of our 2018 Pacafi's as soon as possible especially for those who use percentage of the bank staking which is our preferred option. Our results will show advised odds/best price guaranteed, result, stake, win or lose, balance and strike-rate. The results will be shown at 1pt win stakes. From 1st March 2018 we will use 1 to 2pt win staking when appropriate and most favourable including the use of stake-savers.

14 Skeaping          1.83       1.00
13 Burn Some Dust    2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +2.44  S/R  62%
12 Byline            2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +1.07  S/R  58%
11 New Arrangement   1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.04  S/R  55%
10 Mon Frere         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.44  S/R  50%
 9 Fleeting Prince   2.37  WIN  1.00  +1.37  +0.56  S/R  56%
 8 Faylaq (S)        2.50  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -0.81  S/R  50%
 7 Spartan Fighter   1.50  WIN  1.00  +0.50  +0.44  S/R  57%
 6 Masar             2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.06  S/R  50%
 5 Incredulous       2.50  WIN  1.00  +1.50  +0.94  S/R  60%
 4 Vivionn           2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.56  S/R  50%
 3 Mighty Spirit     1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +0.44  S/R  67%
 2 Buhturi           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +1.44  S/R 100%
 1 Last Empire       1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

July SELECTIONS: 13  WIN: 8  LOSE: 5  S/R: 62%   PROFIT: +2.44pts

(112L1L1214111) FINISHED First or Second (76.92%)

(SSSSDSSSSSSSSD) SHORTENS in price (84.62%)

25 Vasiliev          2.10  WIN  1.00  +1.10  +0.33  S/R 56%
24 Chef De Troupe    1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.77  S/R 54%
23 Anthony Van Dyck  2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.39  S/R 52%
22 Faylaq            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.39  S/R 55% 
21 Walk In Marrakesh 1.62  WIN  1.00  +0.62  -0.92  S/R 52%
20 Mutamaasik        1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  -1.54  S/R 50%
19 Saqqara King      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -2.45  S/R 47%
18 Kodiac Pride      2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.25  S/R 44%
17 Stradivarius (S)  2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.25  S/R 47%
16 Faylaq            2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  -3.25  S/R 44%
15 Magical (S)       2.87  LOSE 1.25  +0.13  -4.50  S/R 40% 
14 Too Darn Hot (S)  3.50  LOSE 1.50  -1.50  -4.63  S/R 43%
13 Battaash          3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.13  S/R 46%
12 Mekong            2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.13  S/R 50%
11 Dream Kart        1.57  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.13  S.R 55%
10 Tempus            1.53  WIN  1.00  +0.53  -0.13  S/R 60%
 9 Tapiserrie 2xR4   2.25  WIN  1.00  +0.69  -0.66  S/R 56%
 8 Far Above         1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.35  S/R 50%
 7 Neon Sea R4       2.20  WIN  1.00  +1.08  -2.07  S/R 43%
 6 Nahham (S)        2.75  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -3.15  S/R 33%
 5 Theban'kingrebel  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -1.93  S/R 40% 
 4 Quiet Place       2.10  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.65  S/R 25%
 3 Ricochet (S)      2.37  LOSE 1.25  -1.25  -1.65  S/R 33%
 2 Separate          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -0.40  S/R 50% 
 1 Sir Dragonet (S)  4.00  LOSE 1.20  -1.20  -1.20  S/R  0%

June SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +0.33pts

(51421411113L2321131111211)      FINISHED First or Second (72.00%)

25 Mind The Crack    1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +3.04  S/R  56% 
24 Izvestia R4(S)    3.00  WIN  1.25  +1.65  +2.32  S/R  54%
23 Battaash          2.25  WIN  1.00  +1.25  +0.67  S/R  52%
22 Star Of Bengal    2.00  WIN  1.00  +1.00  -0.58  S/R  50%
21 Tabassor (S)      3.25  WIN  1.25  +2.00  -1.58  S/R  48%
20 Jane Lamb         1.80  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.58  S/R  45%
19 Raise You (S)     2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  -2.58  S/R  47%
18 Stradivarius      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  -3.58  S/R  44%
17 Soldiers Call (S) 3.75  LOSE 1.20  +0.00  -4.38  S/R  41%
16 Humanitarian      1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -4.38  S/R  44%
15 Run For Mary      1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -5.10  S/R  40%
14 Quiet Place       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -5.50  S/R  36% 
13 Broome            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  -4.50  S/R  38%
12 Tapissier         2.25  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -4.94  S/R  33%
11 Salouen           1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  -3.94  S/R  36%
10 Konigin Ara       4.30  LOSE 1.30  -1.30  -4.66  S/R  30%
 9 Welsh Saint       1.72  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -3.36  S/R  33%
 8 Aphaea            1.83  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -2.36  S/R  37%
 7 Commodore Barry   1.50  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -1.36  S/R  43%
 6 Magical           1.40  WIN  1.00  +0.40  -0.36  S/R  50%
 5 Deputise          3.75  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.76  S/R  40%
 4 Klassique (S)     2.87  LOSE 1.25  -0.31  +0.24  S/R  50%
 3 Coolagh Forest    1.83  WIN  1.00  +0.83  +0.55  S/R  67%
 2 The Big Getaway   2.87  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  -0.28  S/R  50%
 1 Calyx             1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +0.72  S/R 100%

May SELECTIONS: 25  WIN: 14  LOSE: 11  S/R: 56%   PROFIT: +3.04pts

(1212L122F4121211311211111)      FINISHED First or Second (84.00%) 

14 Mokammal          2.37  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.59  S/R  57%
13 Ustath            1.44  WIN  1.00  +0.44  +3.59  S/R  62%
12 Oasis Prince      1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.15  S/R  58%
11 Nearooz (S)       2.25  WIN  1.25  +1.00  +2.35  S/R  55%
10 Magic Saint       1.91  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.35  S/R  50%
 9 Cape Victory      1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.35  S/R  56%
 8 Falco Blitz       1.67  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +3.35  S/R  63%
 7 Sir Ron Priestly  1.72  WIN  1.00  +0.72  +4.35  S/R  71%
 6 Alminoor          1.80  WIN  1.00  +0.80  +3.63  S/R  67%
 5 Magical (S)       2.37  WIN  1.20  +1.17  +2.83  S/R  60%
 4 Festival Of Ages  3.00  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +1.66  S/R  50%
 3 Pilaster          1.40  LOSE 1.00  -1.00  +2.66  S/R  67%
 2 Private Secretary 1.91  WIN  1.00  +0.91  +3.66  S/R 100%
 1 Pentland Hills    3.75  WIN  1.00  +2.75  +2.75  S/R 100%

April SELECTIONS: 14  WIN: 8  LOSE: 6  S/R: 57%   PROFIT: +2.59pts

(113L1112221113)      FINISHED First or Second (78.57%)