EQUALITY 7.45 Wolverhampton at 8/15

  Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Novice Stakes (Class 5) 5f21y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 4-24 for 17%          (10)
National average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 17%             (10)
RPR: 82                             (10)                                                   
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Distance: 5f-6f                     (10)
Jockey: James Doyle                 (10)
National Average: 21%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 14%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 15%         (10)  
Total:                             (100)

Main Danger: Good Listener

Almost certain to reverse running with main danger

Equality improved markedly from his first to second run and should have plenty more to offer on just his third start. He is still learning and there was enough promise in his latest Lingfield second to suggest he can prove too strong for the 79-rated Windsor scorer Good Listener, who carries a penalty for that success but is partnered by a 7lb claimer this time. The selection has a race-fitness edge on him, also there is more to come and he already sets the standard. His dam is also a winner on the AW and he looks well suited to it.

Trainer form

One senses something has changed at the Charlie Hills yard. His national average has inched up to 13%. His 2020 figures were much improved showing 53-331 for 16% (+85.97) and this year so far is even better 13-55 for 24% (+18.88). He sends 5 out today at three different tracks but just this one for Wolverhampton. James Doyle rides.

Timeform

EQUALITY split a couple of fairly-useful rivals despite looking a work-in-progress at Lingfield 17 days ago, and with the promise of more to come, he's the one to beat. General Sago, Good Listener and Diamonds Dancing all have their best days ahead of them, too.

Value

The 8/15 initially looks a shade too short even with the two non-runners. but he only has one to beat, and our Pacafi must surely reverse the form with that one, we must be north of value.

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2021