MANDOBI 4.35 Ripon at 8/13

 Happy 40th Birthday Paul Mulrennan EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) 1m1f170y

COMPOSITE RATINGS

Trainer Form: 6-25 for 24%          (10)    
National average: 22%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 30%             (10)                                     
RPR: 103                            (10)
Distance: 1m1f+                     (10)                          
Optimum Ground: Good                (10)
Jockey: Stevie Donohue              (10)
National Average: 9%                 (9)
Course Strike Rate: NA              
Trainer/Jockey Combo: 17%           (10)
Total:                              (89)
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Danger: Tamarama

Crying out for this trip and will be wiser this time up

Mandobi appeared to be crying out for this longer trip when a fast-finishing runner-up on his sole juvenile start at Haydock over a mile plus on good to soft ground as a 2yo last back-end. He is clearly a very promising sort. The Ifraaj colt was not expected to win on debut (going off at 11/2) and came from way of the pace to finish powerfully for a 2yo on debut after being green for most of the race. He went into our notebook as next time out winner 1m2f. Important to say he was not knocked about and we are absolutely certain he is going to improve markedly plus on that run second time out. He was given a RPR of 103.

Trainer and jockey form

William Haggas has served the Pacafi well over the past 5 or 6 years. We still run a system using his runners at certain tracks under certain conditions and one of them is Ripon. His horses are always competitive there and if they do not win they go close. His 5-year figures at the course show 14-47 for 30% so 8% above his national average. Of those who do not win 10 finish second.

We had a weak course number contained within our Pacafi yesterday with Kieran Shoemark and we have another this time with Stevie Donohue. He is below the trainer combination figure we wanted for this type of bet, especially at the price, with 3-18 for 17%, which is made worse by the jockeys national average of 9% and figures at Ripon which show 0-5 over 5 years. We have set this aside believing we have a fair bit in hand of Mandobi's rivals.

Contenders

Bruno's Gold got the job done despite racing keenly on his debut at Newcastle but it's probably asking too much of him to concede 6lb to the William Haggas' charge. Tamarama wasn't far away off a mark of 76 in a Windsor handicap and warrants consideration, as does newcomer Birdie Putt if the market vibes are positive.

 Timeform

MANDOBI is well related and shaped best at Haydock on debut 6 months ago, so he takes marginal preference over Tamarama in a race that the pair will likely dominate. Bruno's Gold is the pick of the remainder. 

Value

It looks as though we dived in at 8/13 but we believe that price is still north of perceived value, even if he just reproduces his debut, but we think he is going to step forward massively for that experience. Jockey booking Stevie Donohue does temper enthusiasm a touch, but ask him for a percentage ride, no thrills!

Interesting that SkyBet off 5/2 for Madobi to win by 2 lengths or more...

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PACAFI RESULTS for 2022

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