KEMPTON Racecourse Template
April 29th, 2024
The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 1 May 2024. There is a 7-ra[...]
The Racing Horse offers our Wolverhampton Racecourse Template for Monday 13 February 2023. There is an 8-race card containing 7 Handicaps and a Novice Fillies' Race. The Tapeta going is Standard.
Wolverhampton FAVOURITES (5 years) Non-handicaps Handicaps 2yo 97-232 42% -37.43 42-109 39% +27.89 3yo 141-306 46% -22.46 224-635 35% -16.27 4yo+ 78-173 45% +7.11 329-1072 31% -116.04 Total 316-711 44% -52.78 595-1816 33% -104.41 TOP 5 TRAINERS for 2022 +/- E C Johnston (14%) 24-109 22% +9.91 +8% 1 G Boughey (17%) 21-121 17% -0.58 +0% 0 M Appleby (11%) 21-152 14% +25.31 +3% 4 T Carroll (10%) 19-223 9% -3.36 -1% 8 J Butler (10%) 16-73 22% +22.00 +12% 1 TOP 5 TRAINERS past 5 years +/- E D Evans (11%) 66-538 12% -70.13 +1% 1 T Carroll (10%) 65-661 10% -59.65 +0% 8 M Appleby (11%) 61-536 11% -37.76 +0% 4 D Loughnane (11%) 55-468 12% -35.35 +1% 2 M Loughnane (8%) 53-513 10% -71.13 +2% 4 HOT TRAINERS 14/01/2023 to 13/02/2023 +/- E W Haggas (23%) 3-6 50% +3.25 +27% 1 J & T Gosden (21%) 2-6 33% -2.35 +11% 2 C Appleby (29%) 16-51 31% +3.24 +2% 2 H Palmer (15%) 6-22 27% +15.08 +12% 2 TOP 5 JOCKEYS for 2022 +/- R J Mitchell (17%) 22-92 24% -7.28 +7% 2 D Probert (11%) 22-119 18% +23.70 +7% 5 H Doyle (15%) 22-140 16% -46.24 +1% 0 R Ryan (14%) 20-96 21% +5.90 +7% 3 D Muscutt (13%) 20-116 17% -48.65 +4% 5 TOP 5 JOCKEYS past 5 years +/- R L Morris (9%) 99-907 11% -261.15 +2% 6 H Doyle (15%) 87-552 16% -49.87 +1% 0 D Probert (11%) 85-705 12% -26.87 +1% 5 J Mitchell (17%) 79-383 21% -59.74 +4% 2 R Kingscote (14%) 78-507 15% -121.80 +1% 0 HOT JOCKEYS 14/01/2023 to 13/02/2023 +/- R J Doyle (19%) 11-26 42% +3.74 +23% 3 R Coakley (13%) 8-28 29% +23.08 +16% 1 R Ryan (14%) 19-92 21% +16.33 +7% 6 D Muscutt (13%) 19-93 20% +21.95 +7% 5 TOP 5 OWNERS past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (25%) 54-191 28% -26.98 +3% 2 Saeed Manana (17%) 28-127 22% -7.28 +5% 0 Power Geneva (16%) 24-124 19% +5.68 +3% 0 Ahmed Maktoum (25%) 20-55 36% -4.29 +11% 0 A Brittain (8%) 19-235 8% -84.16 +0% 0 FIXTURES Monday 13 February 2023 Friday 24 February 2023 Monday 27 February 2023 Saturday 4 March 2023 Monday 6 March 2023
WINNING FAVOURITES: Given the amount of the poor quality of racing at Wolverhampton, we are continually surprised as to the high strike rates of winning favourites - especially in non-handicap races! So why is that? Our only conclusion is the wisdom of the crowd is in regular play with horses they know! Worth pointing out the 5f, 7f and extended 1m starts can be tricky for the jockeys and even the 1m4f start can cause a problem - the high strike rate is continually produced despite those draw concerns.
The big sample size at this course means the figures are real and unlikely to suffer fatigue in the future, so trusted to a relative extent. Over the past 5-years winning favourites at Wolverhampton record 911-2527 for a big 36.05% which is over 4% above the national average.
We need to remind members of another factor which should count against these high strike rates, especially if we take their national averages into account. If asked, could our member name the top 5 trainers at Wolverhampton over the past 5 years? They are David Evans (11%), Tony Carroll (10%), Michael Appleby (11%), David Loughnane 11%) & Mark Loughnane (8%). The low national averages reflect the quality of horses in their care and the standard of races they are running in, especially in the handicaps.
From a small 5-year sample 2yo winning favourites in handicaps produce 42-109 for 39% (+27.89) so a very high handicap strike rate. In non-handicaps 3yo & 4yo winning favourites score 219-479 for 46% and a small level stake loss of -14.75 but on a large sample a figure/baseline from which to work from.
TRAINERS: The top 5 trainer's at the course have 19 runners between them and there must be winners amongst them. Our hot trainers include William Haggas, John Gosden, Charlie Appleby and Hugo Palmer and a winner beckons from this quartet.
Our top trainer Charlie Appleby (29%) has 2 runners in the 6.30 including ETERNAL HOPE & MOUNTAIN SONG and the suggestion is the winner for that race has been named.
JOCKEYS: James Doyle (19%) is in fantastic form and currently 7-12 for 58%, he has 3 rides tomorrow. Ross Coakley (13%) is another hot jockey and he has just the one ride and it looks all over the winner in the last.
OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) are easily the top owners at the track scoring almost double to the next best owners. They score at 28% at the track despite having multiple entries and apprentice ridden entries. This year on the GB AW they show 11-21 for a massive 52% and a level stake profit of +13.11 to SP. Here is a reminder of their record on the GB AW for 2022:
Chelmsford 10-44 23% -2.30 Kempton 24-86 28% -24.53 Lingfield 9-27 33% +11.07 Newcastle 7-26 27% -6.38 Southwell 8-19 42% +1.27 Wolverhampton 9-33 27% +1.32 Total 67-235 29% -19.55
They have 2 runners in the 6.30 including ETERNAL HOPE & MOUNTAIN SONG both trained by Charlie Appleby. Jockey bookings suggest the latter might just be favoured but we could be wrong...
PERTINENCE5.00
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Wolverhampton’s 5f, 7f and extended 1m starts can be tricky from a jockey’s point of view, because they’re very much draw-dependent. It’s a big advantage being among the low, left-hand numbers. The 1m 4f start can also be a slight problem, but at least from there you’ve got a longer trip to get sorted out. Nobody went round the inside in the early days and, while I’m not sure it’s a disadvantage to be there now, most jocks still shy away from that rail. It’s a tight course, but well laid-out and very fair - Jason Weaver |
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