To fully understand a project, one first needs an overview or a visualisation of the subject, with this in mind we look at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival.

We know emotional issues seriously impede betting success in sports betting whilst a mathematical rationale assists, because of this our betting is built upon an assemblage of numbers (relevant, contextual and pertinent) within a visualised structure.

The Cheltenham Festival is totally unique and comes with its own personality, type and quality - a failure to understand this quintessential aspect will negatively impact attempts to profit. The character of the Festival makes specific demands not applicable elsewhere and, if the reader believes (as we do), that mathematics is the governing force of horse racing betting, they need to recognise, absorb, then act upon our acuminated numbers and rationale.

FACT: There will be a fairy story or two again this year BUT, and BE ASSURED, of the 27 bona fide races the vast majority will be won by the 5 BEST NATIONAL HUNT TRAINERS. Last year the best 4 won 17 of the races for a strike rate of 60.71%, we believe this collective will win at least 16 races but probably more again this year! By the way, Gordon Elliott had 2 winners in 2022, he has 60 horses ready to race, he will score more this year - you can take that to the bank!

It is not a secret who the best National Hunt trainers are, and in Cheltenham seed order they are: 

1 Willie Mullins
2 Nicky Henderson
3 Gordon Elliott
4 Henry De Bromhead
5 Paul Nicholls

The named trainers are not just the best but significantly so. Note, we have seeded Henderson second but Elliott will have more winners than him for 2023.

Of course, no race is preordained but the die has been cast. Our numbers are concrete and irrelevant of media noise, and not just for this year but for the next few years also!

Many will argue this information is blinking obvious - but is it? No one has told the racing media. Generally speaking, pundits and punters are somewhat aware prior to the festival, but largely oblivious to the dialectic evidence, and besides, any initial awareness dissipates quickly once the brouhaha starts - it always does!

Looking ahead to the 2023 Festival the majority will once again mistakenly view each race as a random entity with little to no commonality. Furthermore, they will readily employ personal bias, accumulated hype and the last thing they heard into before wagering. They will mistakenly believe seasoned trainers will have equal opportunities, and the same right to win individual races as per the Big Five - they do not!

We fully expect a similar showing from the Big Five this year. For the record we examine their winning totals from 2017 when Gordon Elliott ostensibly came to the fore. We had previously predicted Henry De Bromhead replacing Paul Nicholls as number 4 seed,

Please note, we recorded 4 winners for the banned Gordon Elliott for 2021 though horses prepared and schooled by him won 6 races. But for his callous disregard he would have been top trainer with 6 winners, Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead would have scored 5 each.

The 2022 Festival confirmed Willie Mullins as the very best NH trainer of all time, winning 10 races or 37.04% of the races, an incredible achievement! The top 4 seeds won 17 of the 28 races for 60.71%.

Counting back from 2017 these trainers have won 99 of the 168 races for an average of 16.5 per Festival so that number has now become our par figure. This year our reader will already know who is going to supply over 60% of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival winners!

Acknowledging these figures highlights the folly of betting outside the top 5 unless they have secured real perceived value. For us, claimed perceived value has already been compromised by the mathematics before the tapes go up for the first race. Yes, there will be another fairy story winner this year, but the chances of the reader finding it are fanciful and remote. In races where they are heavily involved, our advice is to put a line through and eliminate all those runners not trained by our ranked trainers.

For members, we will follow the proceedings race by race and update live comment based on our sound rationale and visualisation. This can be found on our SCOREBOARD page.

WILLIE MULLINS is 88 and COUNTING!

For the second year running at the Festival Paul Nicholls failed to get on the scoresheet! We are not experts in this area, but it looks as though the trainer wants to be champion trainer first and Cheltenham is not the main priority for him. His acquired horses of recent years do not seem best equipped for stamina and the preparation needed. This season he shows 86-262 for 33%  and 40-131 for 31% over hurdles yet his hurdlers at Cheltenham over the past 5 years show 4-84 for 5%. This must tell us something! Context is everything and this season Dan Skelton scores 66-347 for 19% and Nicky Henderson 44-197 for 22%.