NEWMARKET Racecourse Template (Saturday 15 July 2023)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | 2 Comments
15July2023

The Racing Horse offers our Newmarket Racecourse Template for Saturday 15 July 2023. There is a 7-race card containing 4 Handicaps, a Maiden Fillies' Stakes, a Group 2 and a Group 1 Race. The going is currently good to soft but there is rain on the way and this could change!

We are expecting a lot of non-runners before and during racing so extreme care is advised.

 
NEWMARKET FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                    Handicap
2yo   47-116	41%   -14.55	6-17	 35%    -4.50
3yo   24-56	43%    -8.33	76-219	 35%   -29.57
4yo+  7-24	29%    -6.78	45-121	 37%   +13.65
TOTAL 78-196	40%   -29.65	127-357	 36%   -20.42

TOP 5 TRAINERS NEWMARKET 5 years              +/-   E
C Appleby (29%)	   59-176   33%	   -5.74      +4%   5               
J & T Gosden (22%) 37-175   21%    -3.75      -1%   1              
R Hannon (11%)	   32-244   13%	  -43.23      +2%   2                  
W Haggas (23%)	   21-128   16%	  -45.77      -7%   4                
S Bin Suroor (20%) 17-56    30%   +25.53     +10%   1

HOT TRAINERS 15/06/2023 to 14/07/2023         +/-   E
C Appleby (29%)	16-51	 31%	-10.85        +2%   5   
R Guest (14%)	6-21	 29%	 +1.00       +15%   1  
W Haggas (23%)	26-104	 25%	+16.74        +2%   4   
D Holland (11%)	6-28	 21%	 -1.15       +10%   1   
R Hughes (13%)	13-62	 21%	-10.85        +8%   1     
E Walker (14%)	15-74	 20%	+24.03        +6%   2   
A O'Brien (13%)	17-90	 19%	-11.38        +6%   3   
J Camacho (12%)	5-27	 19%	 +9.43        +7%   1    

COLD LIST TRAINERS   SAW                            E 
R Spencer (9%)        44   64 days                  1                 
C Fellowes (12%)      23   22 days                  2                 
G Margarson (10%)     21   50 days                  1                                                  
      
TOP JOCKEYS NEWMARKET 5 years                 +/-   R
W Buick (23%)	53-184	  29%	-33.97        +6%   7                   
J Doyle (19%)	39-203	  19%	-62.30        +0%   0                
O Murphy (19%)	20-99	  20%	+37.37        +1%   0       
R Havlin (15%)  17-104    16%   -29.13        +1%   0          
A Atzeni (16%)	15-95	  16%	+3.90         +0%   0         
        
HOT JOCKEYS 15/06/2023 to 14/07/2023          +/-   R
R Moore (18%)  20-74	27%      +4.72        +9%   7   
N Callan (15%) 13-71	18%	+40.88        +3%   6  

COLD LIST JOCKEY   SAW                              R
R Dawson (12%)      22      20 days                 3                                      

TOP 5 OWNERS NEWMARKET 5 years                +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	      76-247   31%    +2.53   +6%   6                 
H Al Maktoum (22%)    15-60    25%   +17.25   +3%   0           
Cheveley Park (17%)   11-48    23%   +13.12   +6%   0                
Al Shaqab (14%)	      7-18     39%    +9.50  +25%   0              
Obaid A Maktoum (19%) 7-50     14%    -8.34   -5%   1         

Fixtures: 				
Saturday 22 July 2023

COURSE: The July Course is 2m1f in extent with a right-handed bend at halfway, the first mile being part of the Cesarewitch course, the last the straight Bunbury mile. Notwithstanding the undulations for the first three quarters of a mile of the straight, the course then running downhill for a furlong before climbing to the line, it is galloping in character and favours big, long-striding sorts. As with the Rowley Mile course, ability to see out the trip thoroughly is essential.

FAVOURITES: Winning favourites at Newmarket (July) show 205-553 for 37.22% (-50.07) so around +5% above the national average. Given the +5% we regard the course to be favourite friendly but the course could have some heavy rain today and that may scupper things. We advise care.

TRAINERS: We have 8 hot trainers who saddle 18 runners and the suggestion is this grouping could provide a near clean sweep if the ground does not get any softer. Aidan O'Brien (13%) is currently 0-16 but he has 3 live contenders today in CONTENT 1.40, CITY OF TROY 3.25 & LITTLE BIG BEAR 4.25 and looks good for a winner! William Haggas (23%) has 4 runners and will surely go close to a winner also.

JOCKEYS: Some of our top jockeys are missing but William Buick (23%) and Ryan Moore (18%) both have a full book of 7 rides and will surely dominate proceedings. That said Neil Callan (15%) could chip in, he has 6 rides.

Buick's rides include RACE THE WIND 1.40, DANCING GODDESS 2.15, HIGHBANK 2.50. GREAT TRUTH 3.25, MONTASSIB 4.00, KINROSS 4.35 & HIDDEN STORY 5.10. Stop at a winner?

Moore's rides include CONTENT 1.40, CANDLE OF HOPE 2.15, HAVANA BLUE 2.50, CITY OF TROY 3.25, BIGGLES 4.00, LITTLE BIG BEAR 4.35 & CRYSTAL MARINER 5.10. Stop at a winner?

James Doyle (19%) has a full book of rides at Ascot and must be filtered and followed - he will surely ride a winner from RAASEL 1.45, MASTER OF THE SEAS 2.20, UNDER THE SUN 2.55, RHYTHMIC INTENT 3.30, AL NAFIR 4.05, MOUNTAIN SONG 4.40 & BUSSENTO 5.15.

Andrea Atzeni (16%) is still in the doldrums but has 6 rides at York and one or two of those have chances.

OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) score 31% at the course and have 6 runners today, 5 trained by Charlie Appleby and the other by Saeed bin Suroor in SHINING BLUE 4.00 and the 16/1 looks perceived value, we thought more a 10/1 shot...

Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum  (19%) has just the one runner in EMARAATY ANA 4.35 at long odds.

RED FLAG: Charlie Appleby (29%) has just saddled 3 second places from his 8 runners at Newmarket so far and costing. His 34% strike rate at the course is down to 33%. Despite securing a 6/1 Appleby winner we are on the losing side of things. He has 5 runners today including RACE THE WIND 1.40, DANCING GODDESS 2.15, HIGHBANK 2.50, GREAT TRUTH 3.25 & HIDDEN STORY 5.10. There is rain about and we are now more concerned about the ground than we were for Friday! which did impact on results. At this stage (04.52) we have opted out (including the Charlie Appleby Strategy) and we will not be nominating a Pacafi either! We will review the situation at 1pm...

PERTINENCE

1.40
DANCE WITH THE WIND (C Appleby) trainer has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, is 33% at the course, William Buick rides and 29% at the course WINNER at 5/4
CONTENT (A O'Brien) RPR of 98, hard to beat, drops from Listed to Class 3, Ryan Moore rides NON-RUNNER
GET JIGGY WITH IT (C Hills) trainer +£55.58 with debutants, Kieran Shoemark rides 2nd at 11/1

Exacta £13.30 & CSF £15.63

2.15
DANCING GODDESS (C Appleby) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 33% at the course, William Buick rides and 29% at the course NON-RUNNER
DESERT VOICE (W Haggas) progressive, backed up her first success at Yarmouth with comfortable victory in Doncaster Handicap in fast time, Adam Farragher (3) rides so just 8st1lb to carry
CANDLE OF HOPE (R Hughes) shaped very well when 5th in Sandringham at Royal Ascot, faring best of those ridden prominently, Ryan Moore rides NON-RUNNER

2.50
HIGHBANK (C Appleby) trainer 33% at the course, William Buick rides and 29% at the course WINNER at 11/1
TAFREEJ (W Haggas) bold show here, personal best at Yarmouth last time out, 6lb penalty but Adam Farragher rides and takes off 3lb
HAVANA BLUE (C Cox) progressive, improved with each run, Ryan Moore rides NON-RUNNER

3.25
GREAT TRUTH (C Appleby) trainer has won 3 of the last 5 runnings, is 33% at the course, William Buick rides and 29% at the course
CITY OF TROY (A O'Brien) looked exciting prospect when striking winning debut at Curragh (7f, good) drawing nicely clear in final stages, huge potential, Ryan Moore rides WINNER at 4/6
HAATEM (R Hannon) trainer has won 2 of the last 10 runnings, Sean Levey rides 2nd at 17/1

Exacta £6.90 & CSF £6.27

4.00
SHINING BLUE (Saeed bin Suroor) beaten favourite last time out, trainer 30% at the course, Rob Hornby rides
BIGGLES (R Beckett) beaten favourite last time out, Ryan Moore rides WINNER at 5/1
MONTAASIB (W Haggas) low mileage and progressive last year, trainer 24% in mid-season and 22% with horses 7f to 10f, William Buick rides and 29% at the course

4.35
SHAQUILLE (J Camacho) trainer +£63.63 when one runner at a meeting, Rossa Ryan rides WINNER at 5/2
KINROSS (R Beckett) durable and versatile and 6-10 on ground softer than good, William Buick rides and 29% at the course 3rd at 4/1
LITTLE BIG BEAR (A O'Brien) beaten favourite last time out, Ryan Moore rides

5.10
CRYSTAL MARINER (M Stoute) beaten favourite last time out, step up in trip to suit, Ryan Moore rides
HIDDEN STORY (C Appleby) open to more progress over longer distance on handicap debut. Trainer 33% at the course, William Buick rides and 29% at the course
FLYING FRONTIER (J Tate) progressive sort who arrives on hat-trick after comfortable wins, more to offer upped further in trip now going into handicaps. Neil Callan rides NON-RUNNER
  With the longest straight in Britain and just one turn to negotiate in distance races, this is a lovely course to ride. Surprisingly, though, there are one or two ridges, even before the run down into the Dip, and you need to ride them smoothly. The other thing a jockey has to remember is that it’s a long way up that finishing hill - you’ll see plenty caught in the closing stages. Because of the chalk base, it can ride very lively, and the wind direction is vital. Getting cover is so, so important when it’s in your face - Jason Weaver
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