The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Thursday 20 July 2023. There is a 6-race card all of which are Handicaps. The going is expected to be soft.
CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
2yo 23-56 41% -3.95 6-16 38% +2.88
3yo 27-49 55% -0.56 37-103 36% -5.30
4yo+ 2-8 25% +1.00 66-197 34% +7.56
TOTAL 52-113 46% -3.50 109-316 34% +5.13
TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E
T Carroll (10%) 19-169 11% -2.30 +1% 4
R Millman (11%) 17-120 14% -31.62 +3% 2
J O'Shea (8%) 17-129 13% -23.37 +5% 4
D Evans (11%) 16-145 11% -24.55 +0% 2
R Beckett (17%) 15-48 31% +24.65 +14% 0
HOT TRAINERS 20/06/2023 to 19/07/2023 +/- E
H & R Charlton (16%) 10-35 29% +4.60 +13% 1
C Mason (12%) 3-13 23% +20.12 +11% 1
B Millman (11%) 5-25 20% +16.17 +9% 2
H Candy (11%) 3-16 19% -4.75 +8% 1
G Scott (12%) 528- 18% +5.04 +6% 1
COLD LIST TRAINERS SAW E
E Dunlop (10%) 23 15 days 1
P Evans (11%) 16 7 days 2
TOP 6 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- R
R Ryan (14%) 27-133 20% +23.65 +6% 0
H Doyle (15%) 17-82 21% -11.80 +2% 0
D Probert (11%) 16-165 10% -65.47 -1% 5
G Mangan (10%) 15-91 16% -19.26 +6% 0
R Kingscote (14%) 12-56 21% -19.64 +7% 4
T Marquand (15%) 12-71 17% +6.66 +2% 0
HOT JOCKEYS 20/06/2023 to 19/07/2023 +/- R
O Lewis (11%) 2-8 25% +12.50 +14% 2
T Fisher (13%) 8-40 20% +3.13 +7% 2
B Loughnane (16%) 17-97 18% -20.55 +2% 6
COLD LIST JOCKEYS SAW R
Kieran O'Neill (9%) 29 13 days 2
TOP 5 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E
Cross Racing (10%) 7-41 17% -3.62 +7% 2
Tidball Millman (16%) 5-13 38% +10.00 +22% 0
James Llewellyn (16%) 5-15 33% +13.62 +17% 0
Hannah Jones (23%) 4-9 44% +8.50 +21% 0
Int Plywood (18%) 4-12 33% +8.87 +14% 0
Next Chepstow Fixtures:
Thursday 20 July 2023
Friday 28 July 2023 (Caribbean Race Night - Live Music)
Upcoming Racecourse Templates:
Newmarket (July) Friday
Newmarket (July) Saturday
RACECOURSE TEMPLATES explained
What is a NATIONAL AVERAGE?
How to PROFIT from the PACAFI
CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: It is a left-handed, undulating, oval-shaped track, about two miles in extent, with a run-in of five furlongs. While not an out-and-out galloping course, owing to the pronounced undulations, the track puts the emphasis on stamina almost regardless of ground. All races up to a mile are run on the straight course.
FAVOURITES: The sample size is not big so beware a literal translation - but all numbers have value. Chepstow (Flat) is a good course for winning favourites. A £1 win stake to SP on every race at the course over the past 5-years (429 races) would have produced a +£1.63 profit. Winning favourites at the course show 161-429 for 37.53% so around +5% above the national average of 32%. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 46% whilst handicap favourites score at 34%. This represents a starting point for those thought processes.
TRAINERS: David O'Meara (12%) makes the journey down from North Yorkshire (235-miles) and he does well with his rare visits here showing 7-18 for 39% (+4.45). Of the 11 beaten 5 of them have finished in second place, so 12-18 of his runners have finished first or second for 67%. This proves he carefully targets this course. He runs PURNIKA 4.40 to be ridden by Jason Watson.
The top 4 winning trainers at Chepstow are Tony Carroll (10%), Rod Millman (11%), John O'Shea (8%) and David Evans (11%) and they have won 69 races at the course over the past 5 years. They have 12 runners between them and the numbers suggest one of them will have a winner.
JOCKEYS: Richard Kingscote (14%) rides Cheptsow at +7% above his national average and he has 4 rides, they include: EYESHADOW 3.00, GALILEO GLASS 4.05, DALATARA 4.40 & LIBERATED LAD 5.10. A winner beckons!
Welsh jockey David Probert (11%) will be typically competitive, he has 5 rides including CHORUS LINE 3.00, BAMA LAMA 3.35, DEACS DELIGHT 4.05, QUEENSLAND BOY 4.40 & CITY ESCAPE 5.10.
Billy Loughnane (16%) is 2-5 for 40% (+5.50) at Chepstow and has a full book of 6 rides in the 6 handicaps and his 3lb allowance will be more than useful, they include: FOUR ADAAY 2.30, AZAHARA PALACE 3.00, EIGHT MILE 3.35, IGOTATEXT 4.05, SURREY CHARM 4.40 & CARP KID 5.10. The suggestion is he will ride at least 1 winner and looks to be an angle into the meeting!
OWNERS: The Cross Racing Club have a national average of 10% yet scores 17% at Chepstow. They have 2 runners tomorrow including SOME NIGHTMARE 2.30 & MINHAAJ 4.05 (32 runs since last win), both trained by John O'Shea.
RED FLAG: H & R Charlton have a national average of 16% and find themselves on our hot trainer board scoring 10-35 for 29% (+4.60) over the last month or so - and about time too! Before son Harry became joint-trainer with father Roger, the Beckhampton Stable had scored at around 17% so their current 2023 figure of 13% (-4%) has to be considered disappointing. We fully expect the team to kick on from here, and note they have a rare runner at Chepstow on Thursday in EYESHADOW 3.00 for Juddmonte, Richard Kingscote rides. The 3yo Expert Eye filly had been entered at Newbury and Haydock over the weekend but comes here instead.
The stable's numbers at Chepstow are significant, H & R Charlton show 3-5 for 60% (+21.57) at the track whilst the figures of Roger Charlton showed 3-9 for 33% (+2.25). Yard show 30% with handicap debutants and the suggestion is their runner will be hard to beat based on this rationale! The combination of trainer and jockey show 9-47 for 19%.
2.30 (Apprentice Handicap)
CONNIE'S ROSE (G Harris) Double C&D winner this year, Callum Hutchinson rides
GANNON GLORY (A Watson) formerly with Richard Fahey, back to his best on final outing for Fahey last time, interesting now with Archie Watson, Taylor Fisher rides
FLIP MODE (J O'Shea) Dual C&D winner back in 2021, nothing since but weighted to win 63 > 60, Liam Wright rides
EYESHADOW (H & R Charlton) well bred filly, trainer 30% with handicap debutants and 22% in mid-season, see Red Flag, Richard Kingscote rides
AZAHARA PALACE (H Morrison) C&D winner 24 days ago, interesting handicap debutant, Billy Loughnane (3) rides
EIGHT MILE (G Scott) career best when winning 7-runner Brighton handicap (6f, good) 9 days ago. Leading claims with Billy Loughnane (3) riding
ON EDGE (C Mason) Career best when winning 8-runner C&D handicap (good to soft) 10 days ago by ½l from Louis Treize. Place chance, William Cox rides
BAMA LAMA (R Millman) career best when winning 9-runner C&D handicap (good to soft) 10 days ago. Clearly in good heart, David Probert rides
DEACS DELIGHT (P & O Cole) beaten favourite last time out though creditable ¾l second at Bath (8f, firm, 13/8) 22 days ago. David Probert rides
GALILEO GLASS (P Evans) weighted to win 72 > 54 though now 0-19, chance on form, Richard Kingscote rides
FACT OR FABLE (J Moore) C&D winner. 3 wins from 15 runs this year. Latest win at Bath in June. Taylor Fisher (5) rides
PURNIKA (D O'Meara) long traveller 235-miles, Jason Watson rides
JIMMY MARK (S Kittow) Winner at Bath in May then respectable fifth of 10 at Bath (10.2f, good to firm) 15 days ago. Place chance at least, Kieran O'Neill rides
SURREY CHARM (H Morrison) formerly with G Baker, Billy Loughnane (3) rides
ETON BLUE (G Baker) beaten favourite last time out when agonisingly close behind a subsequent winner at Brighton last time. Pat Cosgrave rides
ORIENTAL ART (D Simcock) beaten favourite last time out, Marco Ghiani rides
HAVANA GOLDRUSH (J Moore) Winner at Windsor in June then below par in Bath handicap, now back up in trip. Liam Keniry rides
Chepstow takes a fair bit of getting. Because it’s so up hill and down dale, stamina has to come into play and it’s also worth noting that the straight is quite long, meaning that some horses start to race a lot earlier than is ideal. If you’re on one that wants to make the running, for example, you’ll often get a few keen to take you on earlier than you might like, so patience is vital for a jockey. Long-striding horses can often go well on the straight track but, as it’s quite stiff, they definitely need to get home - Jason Weaver
Tel: 01291 622260
Children 17 and under go free to the races when accompanied by an adult.
|The Racing Horse takes this opportunity to thank members Matthew C and Christopher J for their help in facilitating this trip to Chepstow Racecourse! We just hope the rain stays away for the duration. Also, thanks to members Dave P & Andrew C for their support over the past 12 months or so. All we need now is an informative, helpful and profitable Racecourse Template!
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