ESPRIT DU POTIER 12.45 Ayr

Happy New Year From Ayr Racecourse Maiden Hurdle (Class 4) 2m4f100y

Pedigree

 (n/s €14,000 2yo); 4th foal; closely related to French 2m hurdle winner Weetamoo, half-brother to French 1m3f/12.5f Flat and useful 2m1f-2m2f hurdle/chase winner Seduction; dam Fr 1m4f winner, half-sister to bumper winner Fortified Bay out of 1m3f winner

The Racing Horse Composite 

Trainer Form: 6-24 for 25%          (10)
National average: 13%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 15%             (10)
OR & RPR: 117 & 122                 (10)
Optimum Ground: Soft to heavy       (10)      
Optimum Distance: 2m4f+             (10)
Jockey: Derek Fox                   (10)
National Average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 12%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 14%         (10)
Total:                             (100)

Opposing Timeform

TRH is at odds with the Timeform Comments on this occasion so a need to explain why. Esprit Du Potier is a half-brother to a dual Grade 3 2m2f hurdle winner in France and now a dual course bumper winner winning on good to soft ground and then again on heavy ground. He made a positive start to his hurdling career when second on his return at Kelso over 2m on good to soft ground. He then ran to a similar level when filling same spot here over 2m on soft ground 22 days ago and has every chance of going one better, especially with the longer trip sure to suit.

Conditions to suit

Apart from improving for a step up in distance we acknowledge his last run. He was beaten by a very useful horse (by the looks of things) finishing 12l clear of the others including President Scottie, so we have upgraded the second place. His three runs on the course now read 112 and he clearly acts on soft to heavy ground. He looks to have a great chance of shedding his maiden tag today!

Trainer & Jockey Form

Lucinda Russell has her team firing on all cylinders at the moment scoring 6 winners from her last 24 runners for 25% and double her national average. At Ayr she shows 33-214 for 15% (-1.81) though we note there have been 32 second places and 38 third places which must surely annoy the stable. Derek Fox rides and their combination shows 93-664 for 14% (+8.55) over the last 5 years winning almost £2m in prize money.

Contender

Hombre De Guerra (OR 111) might be the main danger. He caught the eye when rattling home for second in a 2m novice hurdle here on his reappearance. Not quite in same form when fourth back here over 2m last time but remains capable of better, especially now upped in distance. President Scottie could challenge for second place.

Timeform Comments

A few promise to be suited by the step up in trip, but none more so than HOMBRE DE GUERRA, who caught the eye rattling home from an unpromising position on his hurdling debut here in early November. Esprit du Potier and President Scottie rate the principal threats.

Perceived Value

The 11/10 is surely perceived value and Timeform have given a flawed summary!

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Considering whether a trainer is in or out of form, is a subjective exercise. The Racing Horse takes a mathematical look, primarily to counter randomness, bias or false view. Our first action when assessing a race is always to acknowledge trainer form and measure it against their respective national averages. This must represent a logical first step?