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KEMPTON AW Racecourse Template (Wednesday 22 May 2024)
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The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 22 May 2024. There is an 8-race card containing 5 Handicaps and 3 Novice Races. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.
Winning Favourites (5 Years) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 105-268 39% -47.86 38-104 37% +3.21 3yo 139-277 50% -5.33 140-446 31% -51.25 4yo+ 46-105 44% -3.71 233-746 31% -80.58 TOTAL 290-650 45% -56.90 411-1296 32% -128.62 Winning Favourites (Current Year) Non-handicap Handicap 2yo 1-3 33% +0.00 0-0 0% +0.00 3yo 23-42 55% +3.63 15-38 39% -1.32 4yo+ 5-12 42% +0.18 34-98 35% -4.12 TOTAL 29-57 51% +3.80 49-136 36% -5.44 TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- E Andrew Balding (15%) 83-494 17% +21.94 +2% 1 Charlie Appleby (29%) 70-203 34% -30.19 +5% 0 Roger Varian (20%) 60-254 24% -29.73 +4% 0 Richard Hannon (11%) 49-437 11% -98.75 +0% 2 J & T Gosden (21%) 42-215 20% -53.96 -1% 1 TOP TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2024 +/- E Andrew Balding (15%) 15-63 24% +22.43 +9% 1 Charlie Appleby (29%)10-18 56% +6.03 +27% 0 Jamie Osborne (9%) 5-18 28% +9.35 +19% 3 Hugo Palmer (14%) 5-18 28% +14.00 +14% 0 Eve J-Houghton (12%) 5-20 25% -2.55 +13% 1 TOP 6 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years +/- R David Probert (12%) 91-747 12% -32.66 +0% 0 Oisin Murphy (19%) 87-424 21% -50.64 +2% 8 Daniel Muscutt (13%) 78-570 14% -92.13 +1% 0 William Buick (23%) 74-307 24% -62.52 +1% 0 James Doyle (19%) 71-295 24% -26.05 +5% 0 Hollie Doyle (15%) 71-522 14% -133.55 -1% 5 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2024 +/- R Oisin Murphy (19%) 16-60 27% -7.42 +8% 8 Billy Loughnane (14%) 10-56 18% +35.08 +4% 0 David Probert (12%) 10-67 15% +1.97 +3% 0 Rossa Ryan (16%) 10-72 14% -28.04 -2% 0 William Buick (23%) 9-13 69% +5.17 +46% 0 TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years +/- E Godolphin (25%) 98-341 29% -66.37 +4% 1 King Power (13%) 24-126 19% -26.31 +6% 0 Shadwell Est (24%) 18-66 27% +6.88 +3% 0 Opulence Thoro (18%) 14-51 27% +6.44 +9% 0 Juddmonte (23%) 14-55 25% -8.26 +3% 0 Fixtures: Wednesday 22 May 2024 Wednesday 29 May 2024
CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over five and ten furlongs is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under two furlongs, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately three furlongs long, making for a fairer test. Over both five and six furlongs, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.
FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template offers us a huge sample giving the figures some real substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 701-1946 for 36.02% and a level stake loss of -185.52. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 45% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 32% for a 13% differential.
BEST CATEGORY: 3yo NON-HANDICAPS 139-277 for 50% (-5.33)
WORST CATEGORY: 4yo HANDICAPS 233-746 for 31% (-80.58)
- Best category versus the worst category shows a significant differential of 19%.
- Winning 3yo favourites in non-handicap score at a big 50% and a micro-system with just a modicum of filtration, just trust the process!
- First and second in the market at Kempton win at 52.94%.
TRAINERS: Top trainer at the course over 5 years and this current year where he shows 15-63 for 24% (+22.43) though largely based on winning number is Andrew Balding (15%). He runs the interesting 3yo colt DRUMSTICK 7.30 for the King and to be ridden by Oisin Murphy. He is bred to be useful but has stall 10 of 13 to navigate though the 7f start at the course gives him a chance to find a pitch. Has the look of solid each-way material.
Charlie Johnston (14%) sends 3 down on a journey of 246-miles and each of them has place chances at least, they include DEAL MAKER 6.30, BENGURION 7.00 & ARTISAN DANCER 8.30. He has raced 63 horses in the past 14 days and today runs another 7 at 3 racecourses.
JOCKEYS: Oisin Murphy (19%) has a full book of 8 rides including FENGARI 5.25, NAP HAND 6.00, FELINA 6.30, BENGURION 7.00, DRUMSTICK 7.30, GIANT 8.00, ASIAN DANCER 8.30 & GLOBAL TYCOON 9.00
Hollie Doyle (15%) has 5 rides including TRUE BLUE GENT 5.25, LAKOTA BRAVE 6.00, SPIRITUALISM 6.30, CORDELIN 7.00 & THAPA VC 8.00
OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) scores 29% at this course and have 1 runner tomorrow in PIPE AND DRUMS 7.00 trained by J & T Gosden and ridden by Kieran Shoemark. TRH remains unconvinced about this jockey being a number 1 for a big stable, but John Gosden made the appointment and he should know!
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It is impossible to measure or be scientific about the importance of the role of the jockey in a particular race. We do know they are the conduit from the trainer and the horse's preparation, it is their skill-set and split-second decision-making that heavily contributes to the result of a race (and any consequent profit and loss to the bettor). Every jockey booking ever made has a negative or positive impact or quality quotient, and this allegorical number varies from day to day and course to course. It is difficult, but this help versus hinder estimate must somehow be factored-in when profiling a race. |
RED FLAG: David Menuisier (11%) has hit form with a vengeance! Of his last 9 runners 4 have won for a strike rate of 44% at prices of 5/2, 8/1, 2/1 & 33/10. His most recent winner won the German 2000 Guineas under a brilliant front-running ride by Silvestre De Sousa winning a £61,000 prize. He has 3 runners at Kempton tonight and they should be processed, they include CITY OF DELIGHT 5.25, FELINA 6.30 & METAVERSE 8.00. At Kempton he shows 9-89 for 10% (+24.75) so a figure below his national average.
We notice he runs his first 2yo this year in Felina 6.30. The trainer is 2-15 for 13.33% with first start 2yos over the past year and 4 placed for 26.67% and Oisin Murphy looks an eye-catching jockey booking. The combination show 3-22 for 14% but note there are also 6 second places and 3 third places confirming competitiveness. Felina looks primed to run a big race. She is 27,000euros yearling and her dam a 1m winner (RPR 83), herself a half-sister to a Listed winner in Hong Kong. She has a lovely draw in stall 3 to help her over the 6f and the market will tell us a little more but she does look short-list material!
PERTINENCE & PERTAINING5.25
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| The way the track is prepared at Kempton can play a massive part in whether it suits front-runners or horses coming from behind. Most of the time, the going is officially rated ‘standard’ but I know, from having ridden in America, that all artificial surfaces are dependent on weather conditions. An inside draw is a big advantage on the round course, as you don’t want to be running wide, and there’s a tendency for jockeys to get going a long from home. My preference would be to use patient tactics - Jason Weaver |