It is our genuine belief that mathematics are the governing force of horse racing betting, so our advice is always to embrace and work with numbers and dismiss punditry. This piece is largely obvious with no intention to patronise, but our membership span includes all levels of bettors. 

Please visit our Home Page which will contain all the pertinence, context and relevance needed to produce a profit at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival:

2024 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (Home Page)

 Our view in finding a winning bet for a long-term profit has always been simple, and made up of a few essential elements:

• Form of the trainer
• Requisite class of the horse
• Jockey competence
• Optimum ground and racing conditions including distance

For us, these four corners of our betting slip have to be satisfied before wagering but even these prerequisites/components have NO VALUE unless they contain PERCEIVED VALUE! 

Filtrate the contenders from the pretenders then...

At this year's Cheltenham Festival we will look at our trends for filtration purposes, so as to sort the pretenders from the contenders, not the winners. Each race is a unique event and TRH only use trends to help analyse the major races of the year, we find them of little value when analysing minor day to day races.

Most punters fail to use the trends in appropriation, whilst many seek a bias that confirms their already held opinion.

Of course, sample size and the reliability of trends should always be questioned, but some of our numbers are so strong and powerful they cannot be ignored! Also note, we are only interested in trends that produce a recurrence factor of around 90% and higher. Each Cheltenham race will be assigned a recurrence factor percentage.

Beware those gimpy, bland, and meaningless trends that will be widely available and offer no pertinence, relevance or context! For example:

• 5/12 winners won on their last run
• 7/12 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
• 10/12 winners carried between 10st 2lb and 11st 10lbs
• 2/20: Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
• 11/20: Irish Bred
• 0/20: Swedish trained winners

How does the above help anyone?

At this stage we have not introduced a personal opinion. Profiling is a massive help to the mathematical process and a check/stop on the peripheral, random, hunch and hype, whilst highlighting those most likely to win!

Our overriding advice to our members this year is the same as last, absorb pertinence, context and relevance, then plough your own furrow - do not bother with the pundits or the noise they make, they are not batting for you, they never have.

Also, avoid randomness (the serial killer to a betting bank) and keep things simple, do not try to digest everything, you will not succeed, and if you did it would not help.

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