ROMAN CROWN 5.30 Wolverhampton at evens 

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Pedigree

€48,000 2yo; fifth foal; half-brother to winners Talis Evolvere (1m/8.6f inc AW; RPR 98) & My Henry (Italian 10.5f); dam unraced half-sister to Listed winners Western Australia (1m5f) & Hoarding (1m2f) out of 7f winning sister to 7f Gr 1 winner Toylsome

Trainer Form: 1-3 for 33%           (10)
National average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 8%               (9)←
RPR: 76                             (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)      
Optimum Distance: 7f                (10)
Jockey: Danny Tudhope               (10)
National Average: 15%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 8%               (9)←
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 80%         (10)
Total:                              (98)

There are a couple of negative influences on our composite board but these have been set aside in regard to relevance. The 2 negative course strike rates are unlikely to affect the result.

Scored readily and improvement expected

The Pacafi is a promising Mehmas colt. Purchased for €48,000 at the breeze-ups in May, and related to a couple of winners, he landed a 11-runner maiden over this course and distance on debut 60 days ago. He scored readily after overcoming greenness whilst justifying good market support in the process (15/2 into 3/1). The experience should put him straighter and whilst significant improvement is expected he already sets a high standard.

Trainer & Jockey

Trainer Eve Johnson-Houghton is 1-4 so far this year and her winner was supported as per her debut winner Roman Crown. Her figures at Wolverhampton are moderate measured against her national average of 12%, she scores 6-80 for just 8% (-40.00). We note her proficiency with 2yos scoring 54-369 for 15% so this augurs well with her early 3yos. The booking of Danny Tudhope is eye-catching with a combination score of 4-5 for 80% (+17.73). We were really surprised to find Tudhope is just 7-91 for 8% at Wolverhampton, and once again measured against a national average of 15% which would normally be disconcerting!

Contenders

Lovealot Bear was having her first run since leaving Edmond Kent when a  150/1 winner of a 13-runner minor event at Kempton (8f) on his Flat debut 17 days ago. Has the hood for the first time and the 5yo mare has to be beaten and not considered a fluke. She has to concede 9lbs to the Pacafi and that will prove difficult! Twenty Bob could be the main danger. This promising type was 12/1 and 3rd of 13 in a Yarmouth Maiden at Yarmouth (6f, good) on debut, when slowly away. Off 6 months but should still improve and make the frame.

Timeform Comments

 Eve Johnson Houghton's Mehmas colt ROMAN CROWN looked a useful prospect when going in at the first time of asking over C&D and is hard to oppose in a novice where lots arrive with a question mark against them. Recent Kempton scorer Lovealot Bear appeals as the one to chase him home, with the returning Twenty Bob also in the picture for minor honours.

Perceived Value

The even money is just about north of perceived value given the improvement from debut expected.

Roman Crown traded at a high of 3.70 and Betfair SP of 4.69 when winning last time, a race in which it raced in mid-field and travelled strongly early on.

PACAFI RESULTS