The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Wednesday 24 January 2024. There is a 6-race card. The going is expected to be soft, soft to heavy.

CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
Hurdle 66-132   50%   +3.81    33-119   28%   -22.67
Chase  8-17     47%   -2.57    52-155   34%    -6.56
NHF    15-48    31%  -11.56    0-0	 	
TOTAL  89-197   45%  -10.31    85-274   31%   -29.23

TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years      +/-   E
Paul Nicholls (24%)  58-222   26%   -32.85   +2%   3  
Evan Williams (11%)  26-247   11%   -31.25   +0%   5   
Fergal O'Brien (19%) 16-123   13%   -34.52   -6%   2   
Jonjo O'Neill (15%)  16-128   13%   -47.04   -2%   3 
Ven Williams (17%)   15-97    15%    -5.62   -1%   2   

HOT TRAINERS 25/12/2023 to 23/01/2024        +/-   E  
Harry Derham (26%) 10-19   53%	 +11.20     +27%   1
N Henderson (22%)  14-51   28%	  -0.62      +4%   4
D Skelton (18%)	   18-77   23%	 +10.00      +5%   6

COLD TRAINERS       SAW                            E
M Keighley (12%)     62     88 days                2
R Curtis (12%)	     37     86 days                2              

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years       +/-   R
Harry Cobden (23%)  40-153   26%   -41.95    +3%   5 
Adam Wedge (13%)    20-175   11%   -18.05    -2%   5
Ben Jones (14%)     16-76    21%   +16.58    +7%   5 
Jonjo O'Neill (16%) 15-108   14%   -33.63    -2%   0
Paddy Brennan (20%) 14-73    19%    +2.47    -1%   2 

HOT JOCKEYS 25/12/2023 to 23/01/2024         +/-   R 
Stan Sheppard (15%)   6-15    40%   +10.50  +25%   1
Lorcan Williams (13%) 6-17    35%    -1.27  +22%   1
Paul O'Brien (11%)    6-19    32%    +1.00  +21%   1
Harry Cobden (23%)   11-47    23%    -3.00   +0%   5
Harry Skelton (21%)  11-51    22%   +10.00   +1%   5  

COLD JOCKEY            SAW                         R 
C Gethings (9%)	        31    41 days              1
Freddie Gordon (15%)	28    78 days              1           

TOP 6 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years        +/-   E 
William Rucker (14%) 11-63   17%    -4.87    +3%   0 
John P McManus (17%) 10-69   14%    +1.40    -3%   0   
Colm Donlon (24%)    6-14    43%   +11.93   +18%   0
David Brace (13%)    6-24    25%   +15.00   +13%   0
Walters Plant (19%)  6-40    15%   -13.05    -4%   1     

Chepstow Fixtures:
Tuesday 30 January 2024

Forthcoming Racecourse Templates:
Cheltenham (Saturday 27 January 2024)

CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Chepstow is a left-handed, undulating, oval course, nearly two miles around with eleven fences to a circuit, a five-furlong home straight and a run-in of 250 yards. Conditions can be very testing. With five fences in the straight, the first part of which is downhill, front runners - or those leading into the straight - do well here, especially over shorter distances, and the fences don't claim the number of casualties that might be expected.

FAVOURITES: Chepstow is a punter friendly racecourse. The last 5 years show 174 winning favourites from 471 races for 36.94% (-39.54) so around +4% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score 89-197 for 45% whilst handicap winning favourites score 85-274 for 31% for a 14% differential.

BEST CATEGORY: Non-handicap hurdles 66-132 for 50% (+3.81) ←
WORST CATEGORY: Handicap hurdles 33-119 for 28% (-22.67)

TRAINERS: The top 5 trainers at Chepstow have 15 runners between them and probably the best angle into the meeting, especially if we include the 6 runners of Dan Skelton (18%) who is in great form 12-48 for 25% (some at big prices) in the last 14 days!

Paul Nicholls (24%) is easily top trainer at Chepstow and has 3 runners including MARVELLOUS MICK 1.30, WILD MAX 3.10 & KRUGER PARK 4.20. We are surprised to see Wild Max running on this ground, he has won a race on soft, but this is his first run back for 572 days and expect him to finish tired and behind Pentland Hills!

Evan Williams (11%) has 5 runners including OWL OF ATHENS 2.35, MINELLA BLUEWAY 3.10, WALKINTHEWOODS 3.40, CHAMPAGNE RHYTHM & MUMBLES 4.20

JOCKEYS: Harry Cobden (23%), Ben Jones (14%) and Adam Wedge (13%) all have 5 rides each and one imagines winners coming from this trio!

OWNERS: Only Walters Plant Hire (19%) from our leader board has a runner tomorrow in STEEL ALLY 2.35, this one trained by Sam Thomas and ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies.

RED FLAG: TRH is on the record in saying our horse PENTLAND HILLS 3.15 has not received the very best attention from Nicky Henderson. This is not a keyboard warrior attack, he is one of the greatest National Hunt trainers ever, and provided this shareholder two glorious Grade 1 wins for which we will be eternally grateful for! During a most fantastic career there are bound to be mistakes, but that is not exactly what we are reporting, we are reporting something different. From our lowly position we see something like hope and muddle, not just in one area but almost consistently in regards to race discipline, ground and distance. We need to explain.

For example, he is not the biggest horse but loves to jump and attack hurdles where he is 3-8 for 38%, but 0-2 over chases for 0%. He is 4-6 for 67% on ground labelled good or good to soft, but 0-5 for 0% on soft to heavy ground. He is 4-8 for 50% over 2m to 2m1f (£161,962) but 0-3 for 0% over 2m1½f to 2m5f (£4,860). His last 4 runs on the Flat show 1131 (remains on a good mark). The mathematical information shown is hard to ignore and proves the muddle described! Finally, since buying our shares in November 2019 he has recorded just 4 wins and without doubt that is not commensurate to his ability for this fabulous hurdler!

So, were expectation levels unrealistic? No. On a personal note we had hoped, under this great trainer, to see our lovely horse flourish under his care. Has this happened? No. If we could ask Nicky one question it would be a simple one. Once it was accepted he was a natural hurdler, with optimum conditions being good to soft ground over a 2m-2m1f distance, should he have prepared his career around his obvious optimums? If allowed a follow up question it would be why exactly did we employ a scattergun approach after his wonderful 4yo achievements?

We remind readers that once again Pentland Hills has been asked to win on soft to heavy ground, a surface he is 0-5 on and over a distance of further than 2m1½f on which he is 0-3 on. Now, we know we have the best horse in the race (OR 142) but is asked to do something that he has not done before between the ages of 4-9yo. We will talk to our racing manager at the course about the above for educational purposes, his response will be interesting. Based on optimums we will not back Pentland Hills, but hope he performs with credit and comes back safe. Be assured, Chepstow 2m3½f on soft to heavy on a stamina sapping course will feel like 2m6f.

Timeform Comments: LOWRY'S BAR had more in hand than the final margin suggested on his handicap debut at Wincanton and, with further progress on the cards, especially now upped in trip, he's taken to defy a 6 lb rise and make it 4 from 4 under Rules. Minella Blueway is open to further improvement now switched to a handicap, with veteran Espoir de Romay not taken lightly having been eased 2lb for finishing seventh in a strong race at Newbury on his most recent outing.

The Racing Horse View: Our horse does not have close to optimum conditions, we cannot expect him to win, but second place with a good ride is possible. We note Freddie Gordon is on the cold list and not had a winner in 78 days. Lowry's Bar looks hard to beat with a kind trip - we would love to be wrong!

Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump - Mick Fitzgerald