PACAFI (Saturday 27 January 2024)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

WODHOOH  12.20 Doncaster at 4/7

SBK Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed) 2m128y

Pedigree

Third foal; half-sister to French 1m1f 2yo/10.7f AW winner Tafser; dam unraced half-sister to 1m Group 2 winner Emerald Commander out of 1m/1m2f winning sister to 1m 2yo Group 1 winner Commander Collins, half-sister to Guineas/Derby third Colonel Collins

Trainer Form: 9-54 for 17%          (10)
National average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: NA              (10)
OR & RPR: 130 & 132                 (10)
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)      
Optimum Distance: 2m+               (10)
Jockey: Mark Walsh                  (10)
National Average: 18%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: NA              (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 21%         (10)
Total:                             (100)

To show where we are with this filly we look at the quotes of Gordon Elliott after each of her last three runs.

10 October after Punchestown win: "We knew Wodhooh had come on from the run in Listowel but I think on softer ground there is another half-stone in her. She's a very honest filly. Jack said it was like she only jumped in at the third-last. She was flat out for the first half of the race and then the further she went the better she was. We'd like to get a bit of black type over hurdles with her now. There is a race in Newbury the first week in December that she could go for."

11 November after Down Royal win: "Wodhooh is tough. She would have been suited by a quicker gallop early on. She probably learned more than she did last day. She might go to Newbury now for a Listed hurdle next month."

10 December after Newbury win: "I've not had many runners here. Wodhooh will have to improve to be a Triumph Hurdle filly, but there's plenty of prize-money to win and this race has been the plan for a while. It's an amazing pot with £25,000 to the winner, so it's great to be here." 

Given a Triumph Hurdle quote after Newbury

Wodhooh duly won her Newbury race comfortably at 2/5 and with the next three helping to set the level she did not need to match her Irish figures. She was always travelling well before putting her seal on the race with the minimum of fuss. She received Triumph Hurdle quotes of around 25/1, but for all that she is an admirable sort, it is likely her powerful stable will have more fancied contenders in the run-up to the race.

Miles clear on ratings

At this stage of her career she is miles clear on ratings and appears just to need a kind trip to collect her fifth consecutive win before Cheltenham. It would have been a little better had the word soft been in the going title

Perceived Value

The 4/7 definitely looks perceived value, we priced Wodhooh up at closer to 4/9 and will be bitterly disappointed if she does not win. On a personal note we have staked 2pts win but advising members 1pt win!

PACAFI RESULTS

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