PACAFI (Monday 29 January 2023)

Posted by Paul Moon in Blog | Leave a comment

JUNKANOO 2.50 Plumpton at 8/15

Visit Irish Bloodstock Sales With ITM Novices' Hurdle (Class 4) 1m7f195y

Pedigree

30,000gns Y; third foal; dam 7f-1m2f (inc at 2/AW; RPR 86), half-sister to 1m-1m2f winner Qanan out of unraced half-sister to French 2,000 Guineas winner Victory Note

Trainer Form: 7-34 for 21%          (10)
National average: 16%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 16%             (10)
OR & RPR: 123 & 127                 (10)
Optimum Ground: Good to soft        (10)      
Optimum Distance: 2m+               (10)
Jockey: Caiolin Quinn               (10)
National Average: 11%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 11%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 17%         (10)
Total:                             (100)

Stayer with a good attitude

Junkanoo was a fairly useful handicapper on the Flat and stayed 1m3½f so should stay much further than a sharp 1m7f195y at Plumpton. He has won on the mud on the Flat so the winter hurdling game and ground should not faze him. Coming to hurdling quite late he has taken well to this discipline finishing runner-up on all 3 starts. On his penultimate start he finished second when beaten in the last 100yds by a potentially useful sort.

Winner without a penalty?

On his third start he ran with plenty of credit when finishing a close-up second at Kempton when beaten a nose against a 5/6f Nicky Henderson hot-pot despite receiving a bump that could easily have resulted in the enquiry been overturned. He should make a bold bid to go one place better for a yard who tend to excel with ex-Flat horses. If there was a negative, he is being asked to run after a break of just 16 days, we would have given him another week or so, but this race is easier than his last two races.

An enquiry was held after the winner gave a slight bump to the second on the run-in but the interference wasn't deemed enough to alter the placings.

Contenders

Mako Of The Glade is of major interest on his first start for the Venetia Williams stable, particularly if the betting market speaks favourably about his chances. He showed fair form when reaching the frame in 2 juvenile hurdles in France in autumn 2021 but it has taken new connections over 2 years to get him to the track, he is entitled to need the run. Gearing's Point was last seen finishing a creditable 5th at Lingfield over 1m4f on the Flat, but he will need to improve on his Fontwell second in order to trouble the Pacafi. 

Timeform

This looks a good opportunity for JUNKANOO to get off the mark over hurdles. Lingfield-winner Colours On Canvas could be the one to follow Gary Moore's charge home unless the market vibes are positive surrounding the returning Mako of The Glade.

Perceived Value

The 8/15 must surely contain perceived value and is almost a winner without a penalty.

PACAFI RESULTS

The reality of betting was spelled out by the wonderful New England philosopher Ralph Waldo Emerson: "Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect." Since the inception of The Racing Horse in June 2011 it has never used the word luck in the context of a winning or losing bet, as long as it exists it NEVER will.
Yesterday we nominated a Pacafi to be ridden by Zac Purton at Sha Tin. We advised at 8/13 and watched him backed into 30/100 before he horribly missed the start and then got short for room after 2f taking him almost back to last in this 6f sprint race! Oh by the way, Purton had 6 winners on the card at prices of 37/10, 9/5, 11/5, 2/5, 37/10 & 11/4. Were we unlucky? No, but we are hurting. We know it is not professional to hurt after a losing bet but we are.
Our note pad the day before said, amongst other things: £732,394.37, 13 runners, draw big player against price, expect madness/frenetic but TOP jockey on BEST horse. Conclusion? We should not have advised then wagered even though we were on the best horse and 8/13 looked attractive. The bet was literally lost after 3.29 seconds of the race! Editing this at 05.19 Monday morning such is the annoyance, but nothing to do with luck...

The Racing Horse eBook

Our information and betting advice is for educational purposes only. Please exercise caution when acting upon our advice and remember that gambling carries risk. No liability is taken by the site or product owner following any of the information given or sold to you. Betting always involves a level of risk, and you should never bet more than you can afford to lose

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *