PACAFI (Monday 29 April 2024)
April 28th, 2024
CLOUD KING 2.00 Southwell at 4/6
Bet £10 Get £10 At Yeeehaaa.Bet Handicap (Class 5) 4f214y
Pedigre[...]
The Racing Horse offers our Chepstow Racecourse Template for Tuesday 30 January 2024. There is a 7-race card. The going is expected to be heavy.
CHEPSTOW FAVOURITES (5 years) Non-handicap Handicap Hurdle 66-135 49% +0.81 35-121 29% -19.32 Chase 8-17 47% -2.57 52-157 33% -8.56 NHF 15-48 31% -11.56 0-0 TOTAL 89-200 45% -13.31 87-278 31% -27.88 TOP 5 TRAINERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E Paul Nicholls (24%) 58-222 26% -32.85 +2% 0 Evan Williams (11%) 26-247 11% -31.25 +0% 5 Fergal O'Brien (19%) 16-123 13% -34.52 -6% 0 Jonjo O'Neill (15%) 16-128 13% -47.04 -2% 0 Ven Williams (17%) 15-97 15% -5.62 -2% 1 HOT TRAINERS 31/12/2023 to 29/01/2024 +/- E Ben Clarke (17%) 4-12 33% -1.00 +16% 2 Jane Williams (14%) 5-17 29% +3.50 +15% 2 Jamie Snowden (18%) 8-28 29% +3.60 +11% 1 Olly Murphy (17%) 10-53 19% -2.00 +2% 2 Gary Moore (16%) 12-64 19% -3.00 +3% 3 COLD TRAINERS SAW E Christian Williams (9%) 42 69 days 1 Grace Harris (8%) 15 74 days 1 TOP 5 JOCKEYS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- R Harry Cobden (23%) 40-153 26% -41.95 +3% 1 Adam Wedge (13%) 20-175 11% -18.05 -2% 0 Ben Jones (14%) 16-76 21% +16.58 +7% 3 Jonjo O'Neill (16%) 15-108 14% -33.63 -2% 0 Paddy Brennan (20%) 14-73 19% +2.47 -1% 0 HOT JOCKEYS 31/12/2023 to 29/01/2024 +/- R Lorcan Williams (13%) 6-19 32% -0.27 +19% 1 Ned Fox (19%) 4-15 27% -1.00 +8% 1 James Bowen (13%) 16-62 26% -2.62 +13% 3 Harry Cobden (23%) 15-64 23% -5.00 +0% 1 Ben Jones (14%) 9-41 22% +5.00 +8% 3 COLD JOCKEY SAW R Finn Lambert (12%) 26 51 days 2 Lilly Pinchin (12%) 25 41 days 2 Sam Twiston-Davies (15%) 25 7 days 2 TOP 6 OWNERS at Chepstow last 5 years +/- E William Rucker (14%) 11-63 17% -4.87 +3% 1 John P McManus (17%) 10-69 14% +1.40 -3% 0 Colm Donlon (24%) 6-14 43% +11.93 +18% 0 David Brace (13%) 6-24 25% +15.00 +13% 0 Walters Plant (19%) 6-40 15% -13.05 -4% 0 Chepstow Fixtures: Saturday 24 February 2024
CHEPSTOW RACECOURSE WHAT'S ON
CHEPSTOW CONFIGURATION: Chepstow is a left-handed, undulating, oval course, nearly two miles around with eleven fences to a circuit, a five-furlong home straight and a run-in of 250 yards. Conditions can be very testing. With five fences in the straight, the first part of which is downhill, front runners - or those leading into the straight - do well here, especially over shorter distances, and the fences don't claim the number of casualties that might be expected.
FAVOURITES: Chepstow is a punter friendly racecourse. The last 5 years show 176 winning favourites from 478 races for 36.94% (-41.19) so around +4% above the national average. Non-handicap winning favourites score 89-200 for 45% whilst handicap winning favourites score 87-278 for 31% for a 14% differential.
BEST CATEGORY: Non-handicap hurdles 66-135 for 49% (+0.81)
WORST CATEGORY: Handicap hurdles 35-121 for 29% (-19.32)
TRAINERS: Rare not see Paul Nicholls (24%) with runners at Chepstow. Best angle into the meeting might be the 5 runners for Evan Williams (11%) combined with our 5 red-hot trainers who run 10 between them. This aggregate of 15 will surely provide multiple winners!
Two Welsh trainers not doing so well include Christian William (9%) who is currently 0-42 over 69 days. We cannot see his single entry troubling the judge tomorrow. Local trainer Grace Harris (8%) is also on the cold list showing 0-15 over a period of 75 days and her runner looks up against it also.
JOCKEYS: Harry Cobden (23%) comes to Chepstow for just one ride and we are on red alert! Ben Jones (14%) is riding at his best in his career so far and has 3 rides. James Bowen (13%) has 3 rides and will be confident of a winner.
We have 3 jockeys on the cold list including Finn Lambert (12%), Lily Pinchin (12%) and Sam Twiston-Davies (15%) and they each have 2 rides.
OWNERS: Only the Ruckers (14%) from our leader board have an entry and they feature in our red flag alert.
RED FLAG: There is an eye-catching jockey booking at Chepstow tomorrow! Harry Cobden (23%) is easily top jockey at the course over the past 5-years and scores double the tally of the next best. With this in mind he comes to Chepstow for just one ride for the top owners at the course Mr & Mrs William Rucker (14%) and second top trainer Evan Williams (11%). Both jockey and owner score at +3% above their national average here, so all boxes have been ticked about a horse who has been rested 44 days and about to run a personal best. The market should confirm our thoughts and a race worth trading in.
In time, the 6yo SECRET PLAN 2.10 has the pedigree to make a decent staying chaser so it might be best to ignore his last run at Southwell when a considerately handled second of 4, which was over a distance far too short and had all the look of a prep run. He now steps up from 1m7f182yds on good to soft ground to 2m7f131y on heavy. Yardage says the net difference is a mile but on this ground at this track it will feel more like 1m2f.
But there's more, a lot more! We note the trainer is +£15.37 with chasers stepped up in trip and Harry Cobden is 1-1 for the trainer winning £15,481 in prize money on an 11/8 shot and the fact he has been booked to ride Secret Plan means he has been placed to win! By the way, his 5 runs over obstacles have all been in Class 4 races and tomorrow he gets relief dropping down to Class 5. This will be his 4th run at the course and his best form was on heavy ground at Taunton. Given every box has been ticked we are considering staking early in anticipation of a gamble.
UPDATE: Secret Plan has opened up at 5/1 with Bet365 so we have an each way bet or take price and trade off when shorter...
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PERTINENCE1.00 (Winning favs: 29%)
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Record times for Chepstow are very quick, which shows how slick it can be when the ground is fast, but horses can finish strung out like washing when it gets soft. Punters really must take note of conditions then, if they’re having a bet, because horses with stamina limitations can get home when the going is right for them, while it can be a real slog when it’s heavy. The other things to consider seriously are the undulations and the downhill run from the last. If you walk round the course, for example, you’ll be aware that, from several places out in the country, you can’t see the stands. The run-in, on the other hand, is quite steeply downhill, very quick on fast ground, and that’s why you often see horses make a mistake at the final jump - Mick Fitzgerald
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Paul,
The Templates and Red Flag are one of the first places I go to.
The information contained within them is priceless.
It will be interesting to see the Opening price about Secret Plan.
As I say the information within the Red Flag is priceless. I wonder if any members are aware that Buicks last 5 rides for Appleby have all been winning ones. He ride three at Meydan on Friday then travelled back to England for 2 more winning rides at Kempton.
The information regarding Buick and Appleby was initially highlighted within the Templates and Red Flags.
Best of all…. We only pay £10 a month for this information..
YOU JUST CANT BEAT IT.
Dave
Thanks again for your support!
Dave, the beauty of the templates is the stories they tell, all of which is largely based on mathematics and very little opinion! I really enjoy producing them.
The SECRET PLAN entry catches the eye on a number of fronts and they must be acknowledged. Saw Evan again last week and he and his wife Cath say categorically there are no gambles out of their stables, but this looks a plan, win or lose. Surely the Southwell run over less than 2m for a stayer on the Flat was a prep run? Not sure if Adam Wedge is injured, but when was the last time we saw Harry Cobden make a trip for a single ride for an outside stable. Until last night did not know he was 1-1 for Evan. Of course we know Harry wants to be champion jockey so it could be just a winning chance ride but we suspect it is more than that!
Had to back Lossiemouth. Not an ante-post bettor but she looks awesome, any thoughts? She was sound the next day after her run so just need to get her to the track. Have invested 3pts.
Gutted with the last losing Pacafi, not over it yet, will feel happier once Junkanoo wins and weighed in!
By the way, had a great Chepstow last time, was interviewed on the stage can you believe? Did not forget my lines so went smoothly. Not 100% at the moment and unlikely to go tomorrow though could have sat in with Evans runners.
Hope you and the family are fit and healthy and dealing with this horrible weather, must confess it has got me down a bit.
William Hill are offering 11/8 against Issuing Authority 3.20 with James Bowen up and interested. We know the horse is doing well at home. Can we beat that price I wonder? Will play my cards tonight.
Of course the ground is heavy and we are currently having a fair bit of rain?
Anyway, thanks again for your support, it really is appreciated!
Paul
Paul
Loosiemouth was impressive Saturday.
On Stage again!!!! ( NOT SINGING I HOPE..) Your becoming a bit of a celeb mate.
Might have to get your autograph..
The weather just seems to be constantly against us at the mo.
We need another meet-up when it eventually turns.
PARETO is still strong and showing good returns.
Family are well as I hope yours are as well.
Dave