The Racing Horse offers our Wolverhampton Racecourse Template for Monday 12 February 2024. There is a 7-race card containing 5 Handicaps, a Classified Stakes Race and a Novice Stakes Race. The Tapeta going is expected to be standard.

Wolverhampton FAVOURITES (5 years)
Non-handicaps                   Handicaps
2yo   100-236	42%   -35.78	38-111	  34%	 +15.80
3yo   143-293	49%   -12.33	226-654	  35%	 -33.73
4yo+   68-152	45%    +5.43	352-1148  31%	-125.41
TOTAL 311-681	46%   -42.69	616-1913  32%	-143.34

TOP 5 TRAINERS past 5 years                     +/-   E
Tony Carroll (9%)     78-845	 9%   -125.47   +0%   4 
Michael Appleby (11%) 64-536	12%     +9.67   +1%   3
Mark Loughnane (9%)   60-588	10%   -112.67   +1%   3
David Evans (11%)     56-495	11%   -103.67   +0%   2 
George Boughey (17%)  47-312	15%    -71.30   -2%   0

TOP 5 TRAINERS for 2023                         +/-   E
Mark Loughnane (9%)    23-170   14%   -34.20    +5%   3  
Tony Carroll (10%)     22-248    9%   -73.30    -1%   4      
Michael Appleby (11%)  19-119	16%   +52.72    +5%   3    
David Evans (11%)      15-98	15%   -12.91    +4%   2  
George Boughey (17%)   13-95	14%   -40.28    -3%   0

HOT TRAINERS 13/01/24 to 11/02/24               +/-   E
Charlie Appleby (29%) 17-42	41%   -1.00    +12%   2
James Owen (20%)       4-15	27%   -0.75     +7%   1

TOP 5 JOCKEYS past 5 years                      +/-   R
Rossa Ryan (16%)    100-489   20%    +46.43     +4%   1 
Luke Morris (9%)     99-870   11%   -200.87     +2%   5
Hollie Doyle (15%)   81-534   15%   -144.52     +0%   3  
Jack Mitchell (17%)  72-397   18%   -115.23     +1%   0 
David Probert (12%)  70-597   12%    -93.11     +0%   2

TOP 5 JOCKEYS for 2023                          +/-   R
Rossa Ryan (15%)      37-176   21%     -3.64    +6%   1  
Billy Loughnane (14%) 35-184   19%     -4.31    +5%   3   
Luke Morris (9%)      26-209   12%    -39.48    +3%   5
Oisin Murphy (19%)    24-87    28%    +23.38    +9%   0
Daniel Muscutt (13%)  24-112   21%    +36.93    +8%   0 

HOT JOCKEYS 13/01/24 to 11/02/24                +/-   R
Joe Fanning (13%)    7-19   37%	   +12.38      +24%   3
Daniel Tudhope (16%) 6-23   26%	    -4.62      +10%   1
Tom Marquand (15%)  10-49   20%	    -8.00       +5%   2

COLD JOCKEYS            SAW                           R
Christian Howarth (8%)	 64    93 days                1      

TOP 5 OWNERS past 5 years                       +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	      53-174	30%    -18.34   +5%   2
Saeed Manana (15%)    23-104	22%    +11.43   +7%   0  
Ahmed A Maktoum (24%) 20-51	39%	+4.48  +15%   0
Power Geneva (16%)    19-108	18%	-0.22   +2%   0
Amo Racing (17%)      14-77	18%	-1.00   +1%   0

FIXTURES:
Friday 16 February 2024	
Saturday 17 February 2024	
Monday 19 February 2024		
			
UPCOMING RACECOURSE TEMPLATES:
Kempton AW (Wednesday 14 February 2024)

CONFIGURATION: The all-weather course at Wolverhampton forms a flat, left-handed oval circuit of just under a mile in length. It was relaid in summer 2014 and the surface was changed to Tapeta. The bends are fairly sharp and with a straight of under two furlongs in length it favours horses with the ability to hold a good position as opposed to those who need time to find full stride.

WINNING FAVOURITES: Given the amount of the poor quality of racing at Wolverhampton, we are continually surprised as to the high strike rates of winning favourites generally - but especially in non-handicap bargain-basement type races! So why is that? Our only conclusion is the wisdom of the crowd is in regular play with horses they know! Worth pointing out the 5f, 7f and extended 1m starts can be tricky for the jockeys, and even the 1m4f start can cause a problem - the high strike rate is continually produced despite those negative draw concerns.

The big sample size at this course means the figures have authority and real, they are unlikely to suffer fatigue in the future, so trusted, at least to a relative extent.

Over the past 5-years, winning favourites at the course show 927-2594 for 35.74% so 3% above the national average, though a level stake loss to SP of -£186.03 to a £1 win stake. Winning favourites in non-handicaps score at 46% whilst those in handicaps score 32% for a significant 14% differential.

BEST CATEGORY: 3yo non-handicaps 143-293 for 49% (-12.33) ←
WORST CATEGORY: 4yo+ handicaps 352-1148 for 31% (-125.41) ←

The differential between the best and worst category is a massive 18% and a loss figure of -113.08.

TRAINERS: The top 4 trainers at this course have 12 runners between them. Processing and a market check is advised given a winner must come from this quartet.

Charlie Appleby has 2 runners including CUPID'S DREAM & ENDLESS VICTOR 6.30 where the former is ridden by David Probert and the latter by Danny Tudhope. Trainer is 5-12 for 42% on AW this year and 2-4 for 50% at Wolverhampton. TRH was close to wagering on this race and whilst Cupid Dream sets a decent standard the ultimate winner might need the run of the race plus an excellent ride to win - trickier than it first looks. What is perceived value about Cupid's Dream, we cannot know but our instincts suggest 5/4 and not 5/6!

JOCKEYS: Some of our better jockeys are riding at this meeting. Luke Morris (9%) has 5 rides, Billy Loughnane (14%), Hollie Doyle (15%) and Joe Fanning (13%) have 3, Tom Marquand (15%) and David Probert (12%) have 2 rides whilst singles for Rossa Ryan (16%), Benoit De La Sayette (15%) and Danny Tudhope (16%). There are going to be multiple winners from these 21 entries. A par figure could be 4, probably 3.

OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) have 2 runners both trained by Charlie Appleby. Godolphin have scored 6-15 for 40% for a level stake loss of -3.02 in the UK on the AW for 2024. The question is will they score 7-17 after racing tomorrow?

RED FLAG: Rossa Ryan (16%) is clearly a jockey on the up. He had a fabulous 2023 where he scored 202-1090 for 19% (+109.24), his previous best was 2021 where he recorded 120-780 for 15% (-116.81). He has hit the ground running at Wolverhampton this year and currently stands at 13-49 for 27% (-1.05) so 11% above his national average. Strange, but he has just the one ride tomorrow in GREAT BLASKET 7.30 for the Newland & Insole team where the jockey/trainer combination shows 3-11 for 27% (+7.63). The training duo have only saddled 5 winners so far, so the suggestion is this entry needs processing.

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