The Racing Horse offers our Kempton AW Racecourse Template for Wednesday 14 February 2024. There is a 9-race card containing 7 Handicaps and 2 Maiden Races. The Polytrack surface is expected to ride standard to slow.

TRH senses a profitable night given the fields and 4 winning favourites (44%) could oblige which is our par figure. A fascinating runner is Con Te Partiro 5.00 (see red alert)!

Winning Favourites (5 Years)
Non-handicap                   Handicap
2yo   104-265	39%   -47.86   38-104	 37%	+3.21
3yo   121-248	49%   -11.68   128-422	 30%   -57.17
4yo+   42-100	42%    -7.14   214-689	 31%   -74.46
TOTAL 267-613	44%   -66.68   380-1215	 31%  -128.42

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON past 5 years        +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  73-451   16%   +17.48   +1%   4  
Charlie Appleby (29%) 63-191   33%   -36.58   +4%   2   
Roger Varian (20%)    58-246   24%   -28.35   +4%   0 
Richard Hannon (11%)  46-413   11%   -97.25   +0%   0    
J & T Gosden (21%)    40-196   20%   -38.32   -1%   1

TOP 5 TRAINERS at KEMPTON 2023                +/-   E
Andrew Balding (15%)  25-142  18%   -14.90    +3%   4      
Charlie Appleby (29%) 16-46   35%    +2.27    +6%   2    
Roger Varian (20%)    16-66   24%    -6.81    +4%   0    
James Fanshawe (14%)  14-61   23%    +0.75    +9%   0     
J & T Gosden (21%)    14-65   22%   -12.26    +1%   1 

HOT TRAINERS 15/01/2024 to 13/02/2024         +/-   E
J & T Gosden (21%)     1-2    50%    +0.62   +29%   1    
Charlie Appleby (29%) 16-38   42%    -1.00   +13%   2
Conrad Allen (10%)     4-10   40%   +36.25   +30%   1
S & E Crisford (20%)   8-21   38%    +1.23   +18%   1
Ralph Beckett (18%)    3-8    38%    +3.13   +20%   2
Hugo Palmer (14%)      7-26   27%   +49.00   +13%   1

TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON past 5 years         +/-   R
David Probert (12%)  87-725   12%    -31.66   +0%   0
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 72-534   13%   -105.13   +0%   0    
Oisin Murphy (19%)   71-368   19%    -47.22   +0%   6
Hollie Doyle (15%)   69-488   14%   -112.30   -1%   2
William Buick (23%)  67-296   23%    -66.25   -1%   2 
     
TOP 5 JOCKEYS at KEMPTON 2023                 +/-   R
Oisin Murphy (19%)   32-156   21%   -15.86    +2%   6  
David Probert (12%)  23-147   16%   +75.85    +4%   0    
Daniel Muscutt (13%) 22-147   15%   -48.67    +2%   0    
William Buick (23%)  21-89    24%   -15.07    +1%   2  
Rossa Ryan (16%)     18-128   14%   -29.53    -2%   1

HOT JOCKEYS 15/01/2023 to 13/02/2024          +/-   R
William Buick (23%)  8-12    67%     +1.45   +44%   2
Tommie Jakes (16%)   4-19    21%     +7.25    +5%   3
Jack Mitchell (17%) 12-60    20%    +10.27    +3%   3
Tom Marquand (15%)  10-50    20%     -8.00    +5%   3
B Loughnane (15%)   15-81    19%    +15.58    +4%   3  

TOP 5 OWNERS at Kempton past 5 years          +/-   E
Godolphin (25%)	     91-324   28%   -67.75    +3%   3
King Power (13%)     21-121   17%   -29.19    +5%   1   
Shadwell Est (24%)   18-62    29%   +10.88    +5%   0
Opulence Thoro (18%) 14-46    30%   +11.44   +12%   1
Hamdan Maktoum (21%) 14-66    21%   +57.68    +0%   0 
    
FIXTURES:					
Sunday 18 February 2024
Wednesday 21 February 2024
Wednesday 28 February 2024

FORTHCOMING TEMPLATES
Ascot (Saturday 17 February 2024)
Chepstow (Saturday 24 February 2024)

CONFIGURATION: Kempton is a right-handed, Polytrack, flat, oval-shaped course with two loops. The inner circuit, used for races over 5f and 10f is sharp and has a finishing straight of just under 2f, favouring the speedy, handy type, markedly so over the minimum trip. The turn on the outer course is more sweeping and the straight is approximately 3f long, making for a fairer test. Over both 5f and 6f, there is a relatively short run to the first bend.

FAVOURITES: Kempton Racecourse Template offers us a huge sample giving the figures some real substance! Winning favourites at the course over the past 5-years show 647-1828 for 35.39% and a level stake loss of -195.10. Non-handicap winning favourites score at 44% as opposed to handicap favourites who score at 31% for a 13% differential.

BEST CATEGORY: 3yo NON-HANDICAPS 121-248 for 49% (-11.68) ← ←
WORST CATEGORY: 3yo HANDICAPS 128-422 for 30% (-57.17)

TRAINERS: Top trainer at the course is Andrew Balding (15%) and he has 4 runners including THROUGH THE ECHOES 5.00, CALCULATE 5.30, FIVETHOUSANDTOONE 7.00 & NIGHT AT SEA 8.00 and he looks good for another winner!

Our hot trainer list has a compelling look with 6 trainers racing 8 runners and if we add the 4 runners of Balding, the 7 trainers is likely to dominate the card and a form of stop at a winner is advised and our considered angle into the meeting!

Charlie Appleby (29%) scores 33% at Kempton and if we are not backing his runners we certainly are not backing against them! He has 2 runners including NATIVE APPROACH 5.30 & MUSICAL DANCER 6.00 and a winner beckons. Had we secured perceived value, both would have been given Pacafi status!

JOCKEYS: Jockeys of interest include Oisin Murphy (19%) who has 6 rides including THROUGH THE ECHOES 5.00, ROGUE ENCORE 6.00, CRYSTAL CASQUE 6.30, FIVETHOUSANDTOONE 7.00, V POWER 7.30 & NIGHT AT SEA 8.00.

William Buick (23%) comes to Kempton for 2 rides and could leave with a winning double. His rides include NATIVE APPROACH 6.00 (PACAFI) & MUSICAL DANCER 6.30.

OWNERS: Godolphin (25%) have 3 runners and could score a win double. Apart from the two runners of Charlie Appleby there is an entry from J & T Gosden (21%) who enters Jolly Jack Tar 5.30 and takes on Native Approach which looks a big ask first time up. He will have to run a RPR of 90+ to win, this one looks to have a place chance today in readiness for next time out.

King Power (13%) has a single entry in FIVETHOUSANDTOONE 7.00 trained by Andrew Balding and has a place chance at least. Oisin Murphy rides this one.

Opulence Thoroughbreds (18%) are outscoring Godolphin at Kempton which is quite something, but their sole entry DEVOIRS CHOICE 6.00 is trained by Ed Walker and he rarely has first time out winners, and besides Charlie Appleby has a runner in the race, so a watch and see for that one today.

RED FLAG: Hollie Doyle  (15%) only has 2 rides with CON TE PARTIRO 5.00 catching the eye now being supported. In 3 juveniles starts he has finished 8/8 at 25/1 (tailed off), 12/12 at 200/1 & 8/12 at 250/1. Trainer Richard Spencer has a national average of 10% and scores 11% at Kempton over the past 5 years. His charge has been drawn 9 of 11 for the mile trip. TRH is currently laying this favourite at exchange prices of 3.00 to 3.30. This price must be too short even with Hollie in the saddle and we cannot believe Con Te Partiro will start shorter than 2/1 come post time!

Richard Spencer does score 13% with his 3yos on the AW (+7.00) so +3% measured against his national average. When Hollie combines with the trainer they record 14-111 for 13% (-14.77)

UPDATE 10.03: Crikey, this horse has now been backed from 11/2 into 13/8 favourite and still shortening - boy, have we got this one wrong?

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