LAWMAKER 8.30 Wolverhampton at 6/4

Boost Your Acca With BetUK Handicap (Class 5) 1m4f51y

Pedigree

24,000gns F, 52,000gns Y; 13th foal; brother to 1m2f-1m4f winner Santa Monica (inc AW/Canada & US Grade 2; RPR 107), half-brother to 3 winners inc Grand Promenade (Australian 8.5f-1m5f inc Group 3; 109); dam 6f winner (80), half-sister to Sakhee's Secret

Trainer Form: 2-15 for 18%          (10)
National average: 12%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 12%             (10)
OR & RPR: 74 & 80                   (10)
Optimum Ground: Standard            (10)      
Optimum Distance: 1m4f              (10)
Jockey: Oisin Murphy                (10)
National Average: 19%               (10)
Course Strike Rate: 25%             (10)
Trainer & Jockey Combo: 22%         (10)
Total:                             (100)

Class 5 Handicaps at Wolverhampton?

Betting in Class 5 Handicaps at Wolverhampton is not our preferred option and usually fraught with danger unless you have an edge, but this progressive sort looks ready to improve again from his last start win and we appear to have just one main contender! As a yearling he was purchased for 52,000gns, and a brother to a 1m2f-1m4f winner and a half-brother to 3 other winners, 

 Backed to win after long absence

On his first run for Michael Bell was backed from prices bigger than 3/1 into 2/1 favourite despite a long absence of 404 days after being gelded (30 November 2023). His previous figures showed 11/11 at 150/1, 6/12 at 80/1 & 6/14 at 25/1 for William Jarvis. Of course, there is a chance of the bounce factor playing its cards, but we like the 33-day recovery time given to our Pacafi, and significantly, Oisin Murphy has been booked to ride. We would not have wagered with an average jockey booking!

Totally unexposed for this class

He was always handy to notch a first success with authority at Kempton last month, and although 1m4f against only 6 rivals he has been drawn stall 3 to help this prominent race find the rail, one back from the lead. The 5lb rise for his success could prove very lenient as the 4yo remains totally unexposed after just 4 runs. He must come on massively for the run.

Trainer & Jockey

Michael Bell has been given out of form status by the Racing Post which is once again misleading. He has a national average of 12% and 2024 shows him 2-15 for 13.33%. Last year he scored 3-8 in February for 38% and looking at overall record usually has a number of early types. His combination with Oisin Murphy is a huge plus showing 12-54 for 22%. The jockey has excellent figures at Wolverhampton also scoring 38-155 for 25% (+0.61).

Contenders

Upepo was not beaten far in his bid for the hat-trick over course and distance last time out and has to be beaten especially with Rossa Ryan up top. Sax Appeal is surely better than what he has shown at Kempton the last twice.

Timeform View 

 Having displayed progressive form in his qualifying runs for William Jarvis, LAWMAKER found another jolt of improvement when making a successful handicap debut and this low-mileage 4yo should have plenty more to offer. The return to this trip will suit Daheer and he's respected, while it will be interesting to see what Rebecca Menzies can do with Victory March.

Perceived Value

All boxes have been ticked. The 6/4 looks exceptional value with just one to beat. We note William Hill are offering 7/4 (18.14) and that looks fabulous value if you can get on, and with 5/2 on offer about Upepo a stake saver makes sense. Whilst accepting this is a Class 5 Handicap, we sense this looks a golden opportunity to profit in a 7/4 & 11/4 type situation!

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